2026 NFL Schedule Release: Playoff Predictions From Wild-Card Round To Super Bowl LXI

With the 2026 NFL schedule now released, we know what the regular season will look like. But of course, we don’t know how it will end — or which 14 teams will make the playoffs.

That’s what I’m here to tell you.

And I’m not just here to tell you who will make the playoffs.

Let’s also go through the postseason with a Madden-like simulation to imagine what might happen, from the wild-card games to the Super Bowl. I’m going to project the scores in every playoff game, because there’s no detail too small for a way-too-early playoff prediction bracket. This is the fun time of the year, when every team can win the Super Bowl.

I’ll take a crack at predicting who will win. And how they’ll do it.

AFC Playoff Standings

1.

Denver Broncos

2.

Cincinnati Bengals

3.

Jacksonville Jaguars

4.

Buffalo Bills

5.

Baltimore Ravens

6.

Los Angeles Chargers

7.

New England Patriots

The most obvious omission is superstar quarterback Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs. And my reasoning is fairly simple. First, Mahomes is coming back from an ACL injury that he suffered in December. Even if he returns in Week 1 (and I’m dubious), he won’t be the same player until late in the year — and maybe even 2027. Second, the AFC West is one of the best divisions in the NFL, especially because the Las Vegas Raiders should improve drastically this year. And third, the Chiefs’ roster sorely lacked talent last year, and you could argue they traded their third-best player, cornerback Trent McDuffie, this offseason. 

The AFC South feels like a coin flip between the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Houston Texans. I’ll take the Jags, in large part because I trust coach Liam Coen, and because of Texans quarterback. C.J. Stroud's playoff collapse. But Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence and Coen figured something out last year, and I think they can sustain their success.

Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence (left) was top-five in MVP voting last season while Texans QB C.J. Stroud finished the season on a bitter note, throwing four interceptions against the Patriots in the divisional round. (Photo by Carmen Mandato/Getty Images)

The Bengals, meanwhile, invested in their defense this offseason and should see a real return on that investment. Their schedule is easy. They’ve assembled talent. All they have to do is avoid the slow start that has plagued them seemingly every year under coach Zac Taylor — and I like them to win at least three of their first five games going into their Week 6 bye.

Don’t count me as a believer in the Pittsburgh Steelers — or Aaron Rodgers, if he returns. I have even less faith in the playoff-hopeful Indianapolis Colts and Daniel Jones, who's returning from a torn right Achilles tendon.

NFC Playoff Standings

1.

San Francisco 49ers

2.

Detroit Lions

3.

Philadelphia Eagles

4.

New Orleans Saints

5.

Seattle Seahawks

6.

Los Angeles Rams

7.

Chicago Bears

Every one of my NFC playoff permutations left out an elite team, which made for an impossible decision. In this case, it was the Green Bay Packers who didn't make the cut. It genuinely pains me to leave them out, because they’re as good as any of the other teams in the NFC’s playoff pool. 

Also left out were the Washington Commanders, a team that, if quarterback Jayden Daniels is healthy, could see a real surge, particularly if all their new defensive pieces come together. Even after making the NFC Championship Game two years ago, they’re somehow a sleeper in their conference.

Ultimately, I couldn’t bet against the Chicago Bears — which, admittedly, is a little bit crazy. They won several close games last season to finish at 11-6, and those sorts of teams tend to regress. But over the offseason, I spoke to head coach Ben Johnson about the team’s plan to fend off regression and I came away convinced that Chicago is here to stay. Johnson and third-year QB Caleb Williams should take a big step forward. But most importantly, I think defensive coordinator Dennis Allen’s unit will improve drastically, which is what this team really needs in order to finish with a similar record as last season.

After a breakout 2025, Bears coach Ben Johnson heads into his second season with a plan to keep the team in the playoff picture. (Photo by Todd Rosenberg/Getty Images)

As for the seeding order, the NFC West is about as hard to predict as can be. The 49ers get the edge because they have a weak schedule and they put together a solid free-agency class, which includes veteran receiver Mike Evans. But the NFC’s top seed could just as easily be the Rams or Seahawks (again). 

As usual, the NFC South is up for grabs. And as usual, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are the consensus favorite. But the Saints have a hilariously easy schedule. In his first season at the helm, coach Kellen Moore got the New Orleans offense humming, admittedly against bad defenses last year. And given all that the Saints did to invest in their continued reboot, with receiver Jordyn Tyson, guard David Edwards and running back Travis Etienne, I think they could find themselves at the top of the division.

AFC Wild-Card Round

Bye: Broncos

Bengals over Patriots, 31-20

Chargers over Jaguars, 17-14

Bills over Ravens, 40-38

NFC Wild-Card Round

Bye: 49ers

Bears over Lions, 18-16

Rams over Eagles, 24-20

Seahawks over Saints, 23-10

Wouldn’t it be crazy to have a road-team sweep in the NFC? There’s no way the Saints advance. And the Lions will likely have a record that reflects their weak schedule, which could leave them ripe for an upset in Round 1, particularly when matched up against former Detroit OC Ben Johnson, who knows the team's system and personnel inside and out. Even with the Lions executing a pair of 2-point conversions, Dan Campbell can’t take down the coach he mentored.

On the AFC side, the Patriots won’t have the same endurance this year — despite getting better over the course of last postseason. They seem like a team that will regress, which will look like a one-and-done playoff appearance. 

Is regression around the corner for Drake Maye and the Patriots? (Photo by Michael Owens/Getty Images)

The Bills are going to be a team with a new-ish identity, particularly on defense, and I think that could make them as dangerous as ever in the postseason, even if it means generating the final stop in a shootout with the Ravens. And remember: Josh Allen is 2-0 against Lamar Jackson in the playoffs.

The Chargers get an upset, fueled largely by their run game, which new offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel is going to turn into something special.

AFC Divisional Round

Broncos over Chargers, 13-10

Bengals over Bills, 45-38

NFC Divisional Round

49ers over Bears, 35-24

Rams over Seahawks, 27-24

The Bengals were — just a few years ago — one of the best-built teams in the NFL and a few points away from a Super Bowl win over the Rams. A lot has changed since then. The quarterback, Joe Burrow, has not. This feels like the season when his love for football returns. This feels like the season when the Bengals support him. As a result, Burrow takes Josh Allen down to advance to the AFC Championship Game.

In a rematch of last season’s NFC Championship Game, the Rams get their revenge. L.A. was essentially one play away from beating the Seahawks in Seattle, and I think that the Seahawks would be lucky to see New Orleans in Round 1. Seattle looks bound for a regression year as it restocks the defense. (If the Seahawks saw anyone other than an NFC South team, they’d probably be one-and-done.)

AFC Championship

Broncos over Bengals, 20-13

NFC Championship

49ers over Rams, 31-30

If quarterback Bo Nix didn't break his ankle in the divisional round last season, the Broncos would have made the Super Bowl. They might have even made it if that crazy snow storm hadn’t blown into Denver so quickly and intensely. And it looked like, with Nix, the Broncos were the only great team in an otherwise unspectacular conference. 

So with the AFC still lacking (compared to the NFC), the Broncos get their second chance. And they'll convert on it, taking care of Cincinnati, whose questions at cornerback might prove too severe to make a complete Super Bowl run.

The Rams can’t quite make good on their second chance in the conference title game. Instead, Sean McVay and Matthew Stafford watch as the 49ers eke out a win in San Francisco, in part because they have home-field advantage and in part because they earned the NFC bye. The 49ers are a deep team. They have elite players at premium positions. They have a relatively easy schedule outside their division. This could be their year.

Super Bowl LXI

Broncos over 49ers, 29-28

What a strange matchup of quarterbacks: Nix and Brock Purdy.

What a logical matchup of coaches: Sean Payton and Kyle Shanahan.

What an excellent matchup of defenses.

It feels like Payton and Nix are only coming to understand each other better. It feels like Broncos OC Davis Webb will be the hot head coaching candidate next offseason. And it feels like former Dolphins receiver Jaylen Waddle is the perfect addition to the Denver offense. (Don’t sleep on rookie tight end Justin Joly either!)

That offensive unit proves to be too much against the 49ers, whose age might start to show at this point in the postseason. Running back Christian McCaffrey, tight end George Kittle and receiver Mike Evans might all be among the best at their positions, but they have plenty of wear and tear. That’s how the Broncos find their advantage, with their young and fast defense taking care of Purdy & Co.

Payton gets his second Super Bowl victory. And he does it by making Nix look a little bit like Saints legend Drew Brees, including on the game-winning drive when the Broncos convert a two-pointer, rather than settling for a tie (and, likely, overtime).