National Football League

2016 NFL Picks, Predictions For Week 4

Published Jun. 30, 2017 6:28 p.m. ET

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With Week 3 in the rearview mirror, it’s time to take a look ahead to Week 4 with another round of NFL picks and predictions.

Three weeks of NFL action are in the books. It’s been a rather crazy season up to this point, with several unexpected contenders emerging while several annual contenders have taken a tumble. Typical gridiron madness, as we’ve come to expect from every campaign.

Every week gets more and more important as the season goes on. A win or a loss can be the difference between a playoff appearance and taking an early vacation.

So what’s in store for Week 4? There are plenty of intriguing matchups, and a couple of snoozers. Either way, it’s sure to be another action-packed slate of NFL games.

I’ll admit I was a disappointment in Week 3. After going 21-11 in the first two weeks, I had a miserable showing last week to the tune of 7-9. It was disappointing, but life goes on. That moves me to 28-20 the season, but there’s nowhere to go from here but up.

So here are my NFL picks for Week 4 of the 2016 campaign.

Week 4 Byes: Green Bay Packers, Philadelphia Eagles

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Miami Dolphins (1-2) at Cincinnati Bengals (1-2)

The Dolphins may have won in Week 3, but it was a pitiful win against a Cleveland Browns team that continues to be the laughing stock of the NFL. I mean, it took them until overtime just to earn the win over Cleveland.

While the Bengals haven’t been all that impressive in three games, there’s a lot more to like in their case. The offense isn’t having too much trouble moving the ball, and the defense is making occasional plays. I expected more from Cincinnati, but I’m not counting them out just yet.

Especially with home-field advantage on their side, I’d guess the Bengals win convincingly on Thursday night. It may not be a pretty outing for Andy Dalton and Co., but they should easily overwhelm Miami.

The Bengals need to get back on track after a 1-2 start and this is the perfect opportunity to do so.

Pick: Bengals

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Indianapolis Colts (1-2) at Jacksonville Jaguars (0-3)

I’m probably going to regret this, but I keep waiting for this Jaguars team to finally figure it out. This seemed like a breakout season for Jacksonville, but now they’re off to an 0-3 start and could watch their hopes for a competitive campaign go down the drain with another loss.

That’s why they absolutely need to win this one, especially against a weak Colts team.

While Indianapolis pulled off an impressive win in Week 3, it’s still got a lot of problems. The secondary is a mess and the offensive line can’t protect Andrew Luck. I’m even surprised they managed a win against the Chargers with the way they’ve been playing as a whole.

The Jaguars were blown out by the Chargers in Week 2, but there’s a lot to like about this team. They made some significant upgrades on defense this offseason, and there’s enough talent on offense to stay competitive on the scoreboard.

I think Jacksonville finally figures it out in Week 4 and exits the ranks of the winless.

Pick: Jaguars

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Tennessee Titans (1-2) at Houston Texans (2-1)

The Texans took a big step backwards in my book last week, getting demolished by a Patriots team led by a rookie quarterback. You could tell New England was the better-coached team, and it showed on the scoreboard.

Still, I think they’ll be looking to make a statement in Week 4 against a divisional rival that hasn’t shown much through three weeks.

I honestly expected more from this Titans team in 2016. I figured Marcus Mariota would take a step forward, and the offseason additions on offense would expedite that progress. The defense had some holes, but offered enough upside and talent up front to be more competitive.

That hasn’t been the case, though, as they’ve only squeaked out one win up to this point over an equally poor Lions team. Houston may be coming off an ugly loss, but they’re easily the better team right now.

A big game from Brock Osweiler would quiet critics, which the Texans have plenty of at this point.

Pick: Texans

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Cleveland Browns (0-3) at Washington Redskins (1-2)

Sure, the Browns were competitive in Week 3. However, the Dolphins aren’t exactly the greatest measuring stick to gauge their competitiveness. That’s why it’s going to take an outstanding effort to overcome the Redskins in Week 4.

I’m sorry, but I don’t think they have it in them.

Realistically, Washington hasn’t been great either. They’re 1-2, and barely managed to edge the New York Giants last week to notch their first win of 2016. Still, the overall talent on the roster is far superior to that of what the Browns offer at this point.

Kirk Cousins played well against the Giants, and the Washington defense made impact plays when they mattered most. Even if we see another strong showing from Terrelle Pryor on Sunday, it’s not going to be enough to secure the Browns’ first win of the year.

The season of sadness continues in Cleveland.

Pick: Redskins

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Seattle Seahawks (2-1) at New York Jets (1-2)

For the first time this season, we saw the Seahawks we expected to see on Sunday. It may have taken them three games, but Seattle finally looked like a contender–even if it was against a pitiful San Francisco 49ers team.

Meanwhile, the Jets looked like a subpar college football team, at least on offense.

Let’s just look at this one stat. Ryan Fitzpatrick threw a whopping six interceptions against the Kansas City Chiefs, sealing New York’s fate with his miserable play. The defense didn’t do them many favors, failing to make big plays against an average Kansas City offense. The Jets had potential heading into this season, but Fitzpatrick simply won’t get the job done.

Even if Russell Wilson is hobbled again, the Seahawks shouldn’t have too much trouble outlasting New York. Their excellent defense should lead to another embarrassing outing for Fitzpatrick and Co., allowing Seattle to move to 3-1 on the year.

Better late than never for the Seahawks to get their act together.

Pick: Seahawks

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Buffalo Bills (1-2) at New England Patriots (3-0)

The Bills may have baffled the Cardinals in Week 3, but I’m still not buying them as a team worth taking seriously. The first two weeks were far from impressive for Buffalo, so I’m still wary.

It also doesn’t help their chances that they’re facing off against one of the NFL’s hottest teams in Week 4.

The Patriots are rolling right now, no matter who is under center. It seemed like a mild disaster when Jimmy Garoppolo went down with a shoulder injury, but Jacoby Brissett didn’t disappoint in his first NFL start. He made plenty of plays, and the New England defense did their part against an exposed Houston offense.

Garoppolo may start against the Bills (via ESPN’s Adam Schefter), but Brissett should be good to go too despite a thumb injury. No matter who gets the call, the Patriots should have little trouble sending Buffalo to 1-3 on the year.

When Tom Brady returns, New England may be the undeniable best team in the league.

Pick: Patriots

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Carolina Panthers (1-2) at Atlanta Falcons (2-1)

The Panthers may have the worse record, but I can assure you they are not the worse team.

The Falcons may be 2-1, but both of their wins have come against two of the worst defenses in the NFL at this moment. They barely edged the Raiders in Week 2, and outraced another one-dimensional team in Week 3 to end up where they are now.

Meanwhile, the Panthers have gotten the short end of the stick against two contenders. The two teams they lost to are both 3-0, while they laid waste to a poor 49ers squad in Week 2. The records are opposite, but there’s little question what the outcome will be in this one.

The Carolina offense is going to overwhelm the Falcons’ league-worst defense all day long. I’d anticipate a trouncing similar to the one they gave the 49ers two weekends ago.

Atlanta also hasn’t faced a defense anywhere near as talented as the Panthers’ is in 2016. It’s going to be a rude awakening for a talented-yet-inconsistent Falcons offense in Week 4.

Pick: Panthers

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Oakland Raiders (2-1) at Baltimore Ravens (3-0)

This is going to be an interesting showdown between two very different teams. While both have had far too many close calls this season, they’ve been using opposite tactics to win games.

The Raiders have sported an excellent offense, but a miserable defense that is currently ranked second to last in the NFL. It’s been an absolute mess in the Oakland secondary, as opposing passing games have lit them up on a weekly basis. If it wasn’t for the play of Derek Carr and Co., this team would be winless heading into Week 4.

Meanwhile, the Ravens can attribute their wins to their defense. While the offense has made some plays, Baltimore has relied on a stingy, second-ranked defense and countless turnovers to start the season at 3-0.

So which unit will crack under the pressure in this matchup?

I’m thinking it’ll be the Raiders’ offense. The Ravens should make enough plays on defense to slow their scoring, while allowing Joe Flacco enough opportunities to put another notch in the win column.

Pick: Ravens

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Detroit Lions (1-2) at Chicago Bears (0-3)

Through three games, I’ve seen little to convince me this Bears team can win any games in 2016.

While that may be a bit of an exaggeration, it hasn’t been pretty. Chicago has been miserable on offense since Brian Hoyer took over for the injured Jay Cutler. And don’t even get me started on the defense, which isn’t taking advantage of all the talent it bought this offseason.

Put it all together, and it’s easy to see them falling to 0-4 against the Lions.

I mean, yes, Detroit hasn’t been amazing through three games. They have, however, put up much more of a fight on a weekly basis. The Lions earned a hard-fought win in Week 1, narrowly lost to the Titans in Week 2 and nearly made a comeback against the Green Bay Packers last Sunday. They’ve been better than their record would indicate.

Don’t get me wrong–they aren’t going to make the playoffs at this pace. However, this game will provide Detroit a good opportunity to get back on track in the NFC North race. The Bears simply aren’t going to win this one. Heck, it may be quite some time before they do.

Pick: Lions

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Denver Broncos (3-0) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-2)

Based on what we’ve seen through three weeks, I find it hard to believe the Buccaneers stand much of a chance in this one. The Broncos have played excellent football, and Trevor Siemian is starting to look as advertised.

Personally, I thought Tampa Bay looked like a contender after Week 1. Jameis Winston played a great game, and the defense did just enough to come away victorious. In the last two weeks, though, this team has taken a turn for the worst. Just watch its meltdown this past Sunday.

You can probably understand why I don’t think the Buccaneers stand a chance against Denver.

Between an offense that’s finally clicking and a near-elite defense, the Broncos have all the makings of a top contender in 2016. That’s what I thought Tampa Bay was, but obviously I was mistaken. This one should be over before the end of the third quarter.

Pick: Broncos

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Los Angeles Rams (2-1) at Arizona Cardinals (1-2)

This is another one I’m probably going to regret, but I can’t trust the Cardinals anymore. Both of these teams have gone against every pick I’ve made for them this season, so I’m taking the unconventional approach in Week 4.

Instead of going for the team everyone assumed would shine in 2016, I’m rolling the dice with the surprise 2-1 franchise. The Rams have been far from an impressive bunch this season, but somehow sit above .500 with wins over the Seahawks and Buccaneers.

The Cardinals are coming off a disastrous showing against the Buffalo Bills. The lowlight of the game was Carson Palmer’s four interceptions, essentially putting the nail in the coffin for Arizona. They’ve got the talent to compete for a Super Bowl this season, but performances like that are going to ruin any playoff hopes for this team.

It’s going to be a defensive battle between these two squads. However, I think Los Angeles creates a key turnover that keeps them trending upward–even if it did take until Week 3 for them to score their first touchdown.

Pick: Rams

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New Orleans Saints (0-3) at San Diego Chargers (1-2)

Through three weeks, there’s not a ton to like about either of these teams. However, after the Saints’ 0-3 start, I’m ready to throw in the towel on Drew Brees and Co.

Three weeks in a row, they’ve put together impressive offensive outings while failing to keep anyone out of the end zone. As good as Brees and the New Orleans offense can be at times, the minimal impact made by the defense is too limiting.

It’s not like the Chargers have been much better. And yet, based on their play, I’m way more confident in their chances to come away from Week 4 victorious. They’ve had a dominant performance this season, and barely dropped their other two games of the year.

Philip Rivers has looked great despite his age, and Melvin Gordon is starting to unlock some of the potential that made him a first-round pick a year ago. This team has the tools to be successful, but has suffered some untimely bad luck up to this point.

This should be another high-scoring affair for the Saints, but their defense should cost them the win in the long run. Home-field advantage should also help the Chargers secure the W.

Pick: Chargers

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Dallas Cowboys (2-1) at San Francisco 49ers (1-2)

I have little doubt in my mind the Cowboys are going to win this one. If there’s one game you can rest easy with, it’s Dallas defeating the 49ers in Week 4.

With Dak Prescott at the helm, this Cowboys team has a certain swagger. They’ve overcome the lack of talent along the defensive line, and have the internet pondering the possibility of a future that doesn’t include Tony Romo in Dallas. Even Ezekiel Elliott is starting to show signs of stardom.

When it comes to the 49ers, there’s little to be excited about. Their only win came in a Week 1 fluke against the Rams, similar to their opening victory against the Minnesota Vikings a year ago. Since then, they’ve been overwhelmed in all aspects.

While Dallas may not be as good as the Panthers or Seahawks, they’re more than capable of closing the door on a team led by Blaine Gabbert. Look for this one to get out of hand early, with Prescott continuing to campaign for a permanent role as the Cowboys’ starter.

Pick: Cowboys

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Kansas City Chiefs (2-1) at Pittsburgh Steelers (2-1)

I have no idea what happened in Week 3. Based on what I had seen, the Steelers looked like the team to beat heading into their showdown with the Philadelphia Eagles. Instead, they suffered a shellacking to the tune of 34-3.

Just let that sink in for a second.

As for the Chiefs, they put together a dominant showing against what appeared to be a quality Jets team. Pretty much the exact opposite of what Pittsburgh mustered in Week 3. So why would I pick the Steelers to win this one?

It’s simple–flukes happen.

On paper, Pittsburgh is one of the best teams in the NFL. They’re obviously beatable, but offer an explosive offense and underrated defense that gives them excellent chances of winning on a weekly basis. Add in the return of Le’Veon Bell, and it becomes difficult to see this team losing two in a row.

Sure, the Chiefs will put up a fight. They may even force a couple more turnovers. But when it’s all said and done, the combination of Ben Roethlisberger, Bell and Antonio Brown will be too much to handle for the Kansas City defense.

Pick: Steelers

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New York Giants (2-1) at Minnesota Vikings (3-0)

If you hadn’t watched any Vikings games and knew they were without Teddy Bridgewater, Adrian Peterson, Sharrif Floyd and Matt Kalil, you’d assume this team is a lost cause, right? Well you’d be dead wrong, because this Minnesota defense is arguably the most dominant in the NFL right now.

While the offense has been a bit lackluster, the Vikings are rolling due to their defense and special teams. The addition of Sam Bradford has given their offense enough life to stay active on the scoreboard.

The Giants, however, have looked solid through three weeks–that’s it. All of their games have been close, the offense has been average at best and they’re turning the ball over way too often. So how do they plan on countering this impressive Minnesota defense?

Simple–it’s not going to happen.

Even if the Minnesota offense sputters, the Vikings should have little trouble winning this one on Monday night. Expect Eli Manning to get sacked early and often as the Giants drop their second game in a row.

Pick: Vikings