What have we learned about the Detroit Pistons after 12 games?
Nov 14, 2016; Auburn Hills, MI, USA; Oklahoma City Thunder guard Russell Westbrook (0) walks down the court during the fourth quarter against the Detroit Pistons at The Palace of Auburn Hills. Pistons won 104-88. Mandatory Credit: Raj Mehta-USA TODAY Sports
We know a few things about the Detroit Pistons after 12 games, some of which are obvious and some of which are less so. Let’s see where this team is at.
The Detroit Pistons are 12 games into the regular season with a 6-6 record. That’s not long enough to get a definitive sample but it’s enough time to give us some clear ideas on where the Pistons are as a team.
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We know the Pistons appear to be a bad road team thus far, but the reasons for that are less clear. We’re going to dig in and explore what makes them so bad on the road, in which ways they miss Reggie Jackson, and some easy solutions that may cure some of what ails them.
When Jackson returns, many of the issues facing this team will clear up by default, but not all of them. It’s important to have a grasp of what to expect when the Pistons’ roster is whole again, and we’ll take a look at what benefits may present themselves.
We’re just past the one-seventh point of the regular season with 70 games left to go. Let’s figure out where the Pistons fall between a mere .500 team and the Eastern Conference force that most pundits and many fans expected them to be with Reggie Jackson.
Nov 14, 2016; Auburn Hills, MI, USA; Detroit Pistons forward Stanley Johnson (7) celebrates with guard Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (5) during the fourth quarter against the Oklahoma City Thunder at The Palace of Auburn Hills. Pistons won 104-88. Mandatory Credit: Raj Mehta-USA TODAY Sports
Stanley Johnson isn’t right
Hopes were high for Stanley Johnson coming into the season. After a coming-of-age playoff series against the Cleveland Cavaliers and LeBron James, Johnson embarked on a whirlwind offseason.
He reworked his jumpshot with the help of the Pistons’ coaching staff, and was sent to Orlando with the summer league team. His participation was strictly to work on his weaknesses.
Utilization of his new jumpshot was paramount and driving to his strong side was forbidden by the Piston coaches. In spite of his poor shooting numbers at the Orlando Summer League, he led the Pistons in scoring and carried the team to a championship game appearance.
He ran roughshod over the Drew League and was a standout in Drake’s OVO Basketball Tournament. Stanley Johnson appeared ready to take flight for the Detroit Pistons in 2016-17, but he’s gotten off to such a slow start that people are worrying.
Johnson has a -1.9 net rating and is averaging just 4.3 points and 2.4 rebounds in 16 minutes per game thus far. His shooting splits are .367/.316/.643 and his true shooting percentage is a woeful .462,
Mind you, all hope is not lost. While Johnson’s shot is simply not falling, he’s not forcing it. He’s displaying awareness beyond his years and dropped his shooting volume from 18 shots per 100 possessions a season ago all the way down to 12.7 this season.
He’s also a significant plus defender. His defensive box plus minus is +1.8, and according to Synergy he is in the 78th percentile of all defenders, allowing just .769 points per possession when he is a primary defender.
Johnson is 20 years old, and still learning. While there is growing cause for concern, it’s not time to panic about him just yet.
Nov 16, 2016; New York, NY, USA; Detroit Pistons center Andre Drummond (0) looks to shoot over New York Knicks center Joakim Noah (13) and forward Kristaps Porzingis (6) during first half at Madison Square Garden. Mandatory Credit: Noah K. Murray-USA TODAY Sports
The home/road issues are confounding
The Detroit Pistons have been dominant at home, winning all five of their games, but they’ve been an abysmal 1-6 on the road. They aren’t just marginally better at home and marginally worse on the road, the differences have been stark.
At the Palace of Auburn Hills, the Pistons have a net rating of 15.5, a rebounding percentage of 52.8 and a respectable true shooting percentage of 53.2 percent. Away from the friendly confines, the Pistons have a net rating of -11.2. Their rebounding percentage is a preposterous 45.6 percent and their true shooting percentage is 50.7 percent.
There’s no comparison to the differential from last year. They were +4 in net rating at home, -4.4 on the road. They had a rebounding percentage of 53.4 percent at home and 50.8 on the road. The only similarities are found in true shooting, as last season they recorded 53.6 percent at home and 50.8 on the road.
There are no clear and easy answers to this discrepancy although it’s worth nothing that the starting lineup has been completely horrendous on the road. When Ish Smith, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Tobias Harris, Marcus Morris and Andre Drummond are on the floor together in road games, the Pistons have allowed 124 points per 100 possessions and recorded a net rating of -20.8. That lineup is also rebounding just 42.4 percent of available rebounds.
While there are no obvious solutions to this discrepancy, it’s imperative that the Pistons figure it out and fix it before the season winds on much further.
Nov 14, 2016; Auburn Hills, MI, USA; Detroit Pistons guard Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (5) controls the ball defended by Oklahoma City Thunder guard Anthony Morrow (2) during the fourth quarter at The Palace of Auburn Hills. Pistons won 104-88. Mandatory Credit: Raj Mehta-USA TODAY Sports
Like it or not, pay KCP
When reports came out in late October that Kentavious Caldwell-Pope was seeking upwards of $20 million per season on his new contract, fans revolted. Mind you, it takes time for the casual fan to understand the changing financial climate in the NBA, but KCP has been proving his worth.
He started the season in dreadfully slow fashion, scoring just four points in the season opener against the Toronto Raptors while getting lit up by DeMar DeRozan for 40 points (note, DeRozan has done that to everybody this season) and following it up with a five-point effort against the Orlando Magic, but the third-year guard has heated up.
Since those first two gloomy games, Pope is averaging 15.8 points per game while shooting 39.7 percent from the floor. In fact, while his overall shooting percentage is an unimpressive 39.3 percent, the volume of three-pointers he takes relative to his total field goal attempts gives him an effective field goal percentage of 47 percent.
If we look at his Synergy numbers, their version of eFG is adjusted field goal percentage. That 47 percent is in the 61st percentile in the NBA, and he is scoring 1.167 points per possession.
He’s in the 88th percentile in the NBA as the pick-and-roll ball handler with 1.071 points per possession, which is a huge asset to the Pistons because Ish Smith is simply not a guy who can effectively run the pick-and-roll (oh, don’t worry, more on that later).
In fact, his offense has been about par with his defense. He’s in the 61st percentile defensively overall, and is just in the 41st percentile guarding the pick-and-roll.
The defense will pick up, and the offense may yet further improve. You don’t easily find guys like KCP, and the Pistons need to lock him up for the long haul this coming summer.
Nov 16, 2016; New York, NY, USA; New York Knicks forward Kristaps Porzingis (6) dribbles the ball in front of Detroit Pistons forward Jon Leuer (30) during second half at Madison Square Garden. The New York Knicks defeated the Detroit Pistons 105-102. Mandatory Credit: Noah K. Murray-USA TODAY Sports
Jon Leuer has been GOOD
The Detroit Pistons got themselves a coup in free agency when they signed Jon Leuer. Perhaps the only Piston who doesn’t immediately fall into a complete stupor when hitting the floor on the road, Leuer has been a saving grace off the bench and should almost certainly be starting.
Leuer has been a source of stability on the Pistons’ front line. While Marcus Morris and Tobias Harris have been a defensive and rebounding disaster when paired together, Leuer calms those stormy seas.
Leuer and Morris have a +2.5 net rating together with a respectable (all things considered) rebounding percentage of 49.1 percent. Leuer and Harris are even better with a +9.7 net rating together and a rebounding percentage of 51.4 percent. This duo is even better when Andre Drummond hits the bench, as the net rating skyrockets to +15.3 and the rebounding percentage to 52.2 percent.
Pretty much the only thing Leuer has not excelled at is three-point shooting, the main thing the Pistons signed him for. He’s hitting a pedestrian 31 percent of his threes, but shooting 51 percent from the floor and 86.7 percent from the free throw line. He’s averaging 20.1 points and 13 rebounds per 100 possessions with a PER of 17 and thus far as a career-high DBPM of +1.7.
Nov 12, 2016; Denver, CO, USA; Detroit Pistons center Andre Drummond (0) looks to shoot the ball during the second half against the Denver Nuggets at Pepsi Center. The Pistons won 106-95. Mandatory Credit: Chris Humphreys-USA TODAY Sports
Andre Drummond remains perplexing
Andre Drummond has been all over the place this season. He only played 24 minutes in the season opener after getting a shot to the face from Jonas Valanciunas, and then he followed that up with up-and-down efforts against the Orlando Magic and New York Knicks. He was outstanding right in the middle of those two games with 20 points and 23 rebounds against the Milwaukee Bucks, mind you.
Drummond may have reached an early-season turning point when he was benched by Stan Van Gundy for most of the second half against the Brooklyn Nets. Since then he’s been nothing shy of dominant, averaging 16.8 points and 14 rebounds in 30 minutes per appearance in those six games.
Over that span he’s shooting 61.2 percent from the floor and a shocking 62.1 percent from the free throw line.
There are things Drummond does poorly, but there are things he does better than almost anybody in the NBA. He is (unless we’re going to buy in on this free throw streak, and I myself am going to wait and see) the worst free throw shooter in NBA history, and while he and the Pistons have put time and effort into developing a postup game, he’s still a far-below average postup guy in just the 25th percentile.
What he does well at, however, he is an unstoppable force of nature. He’s a virtually-guaranteed two points in transition, scoring 1.647 points per possession and in the 98th percentile. We know he’s devastating in the pick-and-roll as the roll man, in the 88th percentile scoring 20 points on 15 possessions.
He’s a vacuum on the boards, with a 24.3 percent rebounding rate typical of his last three seasons. While he’s been tough to pin down, if this upswing since his benching in Brooklyn is any sign, there may be more production to look forward to out of Andre Drummond.
Sep 26, 2016; Detroit, MI, USA; Detroit Pistons guard Reggie Jackson (1) shares a laugh with head coach Stan Van Gundy during media day at the Pistons Practice Facility. Mandatory Credit: Raj Mehta-USA TODAY Sports
Get well soon, Reggie Jackson
The Detroit Pistons might be lucky to be 6-6 after 12 games without their starting point guard Reggie Jackson. While Ish Smith has been admirable in his efforts in relief, he is no replacement for the borderline-All Star Jackson.
Smith’s inability to spread the floor or shoot effectively has had critically negative consequences for the Pistons’ offense. He’s shooting 40 percent from the floor but is just 2-for-12 from behind the three-point line with just 10.1 points and 6.5 assists in 30 minutes per game.
These numbers are tough to accept out of the primary ball handler and distributor for a team expected to compete for a middle playoff seed.
Comparatively speaking, Reggie Jackson averaged 6.2 assists last season but had almost double Smith’s scoring with 18.8 points per game.
While the Pistons run much of their offense through the pick-and-roll, they’ve scored just 54 points in 82 attempts with Smith running the point. That’s in the 21st percentile. In comparison, last season they were in the 77th percentile with .876 points per possession with Jackson running the offense.
In a nutshell, this team isn’t a serious contender for the three, four, five or six seeds in the Eastern Conference without Reggie Jackson.
Oct 30, 2016; Auburn Hills, MI, USA; Milwaukee Bucks forward Giannis Antetokounmpo (34) drives to the basket against Detroit Pistons forward Jon Leuer (30) and forward Tobias Harris (34) during the second quarter at The Palace of Auburn Hills. Mandatory Credit: Raj Mehta-USA TODAY Sports
The Pistons Big Lineup may cure what ails them
We’ve discussed the Detroit Pistons’ rebounding problems, and we’ve talked about the fact that Tobias Harris and Marcus Morris need to be split up to maintain some semblance of defensive order. We’ve also discussed Jon Leuer and the fact that he’s the Pistons’ biggest source of stability on the front line.
Yeah, you’re putting the pieces together. It just clicked, didn’t it?
I wrote a piece a few days ago advocating splitting up Morris and Harris, sending Morris to the bench and plugging Leuer into the power forward spot with Harris sliding to small forward. The lineup that results, Ish Smith, KCP, Harris, Leuer and Drummond, has been the Pistons’ best kept secret thus far.
This lineup has vastly outperformed the starting lineup (same lineup with Morris in for Leuer, Morris at small forward and Harris at power forward), outscoring the opposition 116.5 to 86.6 points per 100 possessions. That’s a staggering +29.9 net rating, and it’s been one of the best performing lineups in the NBA with over 50 possessions together.
Their rebounding rate is an excellent 53.2 percent.
Mind you, this five-man unit has only played 51 minute and 97 possessions together, but the starting unit has been so atrocious that Stan Van Gundy might need to revisit the lineup they open games with.
Incidentally, the Pistons only put this Big Lineup on the floor for one possession against the New York Knicks on Wednesday. It’s not much surprise that the Pistons got outrebounded by a pedestrian rebounding Knicks squad by a 58-45 margin.
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