Game Day Preview - OKC Thunder attempt series sweep versus Hawks, Dec. 19
OKC Thunder look to sweep their season series versus the Atlanta Hawks prior to heading out for 7 of their next 9 games on the road. Game Day Preview breaks down the match-up.
It was a rough week for the OKC Thunder who played all 3 games without the services of Victor Oladipo. This resulted in a back to back set of double digit losses, plus a fatigued and aggravated Russell Westbrook. Fortunately, Saturday offered a reprieve as Westbrook faced arguably his favorite opponent – the Phoenix Suns. Of Westbrook’s league leading 13 triple-doubles this season, the Suns have relinquished two. And, as much as the Thunder led by their defense, Westbrook’s career assist night showcased precisely how lethal a weapon he can be.
Making life more difficult for the Thunder is shooting guard Victor Oladipo appears to be ruled out again. Though I highlighted the varying opinions of the experts (below) on Dipo’s availability, I’m going with a trusted source. My cohort Tony Heim, who has been delighting in his first visit to Oklahoma City, relayed back early this morning that local news report Oladipo is definitely out tonight.
Hawks identity is inconsistency:
Week 9 kicks off with the Thunder hosting the NBA’s most schizophrenic team: The Atlanta Hawks. Opening this year’s campaign with a 9-2 record and the Association’s top ranked defense, pundits cited them as the real deal. Completely reversing direction the Hawks next 11 games resulted in a 1-10 record. Perhaps the best demonstration of Atlanta’s dual identity came in 2 games versus the Raptors. In the first outing the Hawks scored just 84 points and lost by 44 points (point differential Raptors franchise record). Less than 2 weeks later the Hawks scored an additional +41 points (125 ) in a close victory.
Ultimately, deciphering which Hawks team will show up tonight is akin to picking lottery numbers – your guess is as good as mine. This wraps up the season series, with the Thunder having already won on Atlanta’s court 102-99. Granted, Atlanta weren’t embarrassed as badly as the Toronto ousting, but there is still ample motivation for the Hawks to return the favor in Oklahoma City.
Deciphering which Hawks defense will show up tonight is equally arduous. It took several weeks for Atlanta to be penalized for their regression, but it finally caught up to them. In week 7 Atlanta ranked 2nd defensively, last week they dropped one spot to 3rd, but they open week 9 having plummeted to 9th (one spot ahead of the Thunder). That much of a drop is significant since it’s taken more than 4 weeks for their regression to register in the rankings.
As per the rosters, let’s review each side and the key match-ups:
Rotations:
Oklahoma City Thunder Starters:
Point Guard: Russell Westbrook
Shooting Guard: *Anthony Morrow
Small Forward: Andre Roberson
Power Forward: Domantas Sabonis
Center: Steven Adams
Oklahoma City Thunder Bench:
Point Guard: Semaj Christon
Shooting Guard: Alex Abrines
Small Forward: Jerami Grant, Kyle Singler,
Power Forward: Nick Collison, * Josh Huestis
Center: Enes Kanter, Joffrey Lauvergne
Notes:
Image reference: NBA.
Full stats available via nba.com/thunder
Atlanta Hawks Starters:
Point Guard: Dennis Schroder
Shooting Guard: Tim Hardaway Jr.
Small Forward: Thabo Sefolosha
Power Forward: Paul Millsap
Center: Dwight Howard
Hawks Reserves:
Point Guard: Malcolm Delaney
Shooting Guard: Kyle Korver, DeAndre’ Bembry
Small Forward: Kent Bazemore, Taurean Prince
Power Forward: Kris Humphries, *Mike Scott (see note in walking wounded)
Center: Mike Muscala, Ryan Kelly
Image reference: NBA.
Full stats available via nba.com/hawks
Key Match-ups:
Steven Adams vs. Dwight Howard: Since the loss to OKC when Howard scored 6 points and grabbed 6 rebounds he has elevated his play significantly. In those 5 games Howard has averaged 18 points, 15.6 rebounds with an average of 6 offensive rebounds. Yet his most complete game vs. Orlando (20 points, 16 rebounds) was a Hawk’s loss.
Likewise, Steven Adams has stepped up his game in the past 5 matches averaging16.6 points, 6.8 rebounds with an average of 3 offensive boards .
On paper Howard has the advantage, but Adams gets up to face the old school prototypical centers.
Domantas Sabonis vs. Paul Millsap: No imagination is required to decipher the biggest issue on Atlanta will be dealing with Millsap. The power forward leads his squad in scoring, and is second in rebounds, assists, steals and blocks. Considering Sabonis is a rookie he’ll likely get an early hook or OKC will move one of Morrow or Roberson on to him.
Russell Westbrook vs. Dennis Schroder: The young point guard has had issues integrating into the starting line-up. Schroder vacillates between great and terrible outings with the game outcome often mirroring his result. Couple that with having to face Westbrook and the Hawks point guard could be in for a long night.
OKC Bench vs. Hawks Bench: if there has been an Achilles Heel for both teams it may well be their absence of bench depth. Aside from Schroder the bench has been key to the yo-yo results of the Hawks. Coach Budenholzer moved Thabo Sefalosha to the starting line-up replacing Kyle Korver which seemingly fixed Korver’s cold shooting.
Keys to Win:
Without Oladipo the Thunder must approach this game with the same mindset as the Phoenix game. OKC slowed Phoenix second fastest paced team via solid transition and individual man on man defense. Versus the Hawks they’ll need to do the same since Schroder is an unreliable shooter from the field and therefore needs to be forced to shoot. Adams specifically will need to make sure Howard doesn’t set up shop in the paint for easy lobs or pick and roll sets.
Additionally, the Hawks bench fluctuates between hot and cold spells from deep. Therefore the Thunder will need to apply their 11th ranked perimeter defense to stop the Hawks shooters. Conversely, of the Hawks weaknesses their perimeter defense is suspect (25th rank).
Because of this disparity it’s key for the Thunder to mix up their offense. With Westbrook’s ability to see the floor he’ll need to make sure to balance driving the paint to get Howard in early foul trouble and making sure his floor mates move to open spots to keep Atlanta guessing.
Ironically the Hawks best season on record came in 2014-15. It was the result of a high paced, high assist offense that utilized floor spacing to create wide open shots. And there is the rub! Atlanta are still trying to maintain that identity despite losing DeMarre Carroll, sending Korver to the bench as well as replacing Al Horford and Jeff Teague. In a recent preview I pointed to that 60 win squad and noted only Paul Millsap is still starting.
That’s a ton of changes and the new personnel aren’t suited to replicating that style of play. The floor has been narrowed with the presence of Howard and Schroder specifically, and each of the exiting starters were also key to the Hawks defensive prowess.
In my preseason ranking I suggested the Hawks could fall out of the playoffs or contend (at best) for a lower ladder rung. I remain committed to that belief.
Ultimately, both teams are in transition, but I’d rather be the Thunder with Westbrook and a developing youthful core than a team trying to fit square pegs in round holes.
Walking Wounded:
OKC Thunder:
Victor Oladipo – wrist, Take your pick among these 3 reports (or follow my lead to trust Tony Heim’s update confirming he won’t play)
Cameron Payne – foot, Reports have shifted from a possible Christmas Day return to the 29th from two of the top injury report websites:
Atlanta Hawks:
All injury reports via ESPN, rotoworld and CBS Sports
Game Specifics:
Recent History: OKC Thunder hold the all-time record 10-6 over Hawks having won 6 of the past 8 matches.
The Venue: Chesapeake Energy Arena, Oklahoma City, OK
The Tip: 8:00 PM EST (7:00 PM CT)
TV: FS Oklahoma HD
Radio:WWLS 98.1FM OKC / 930AM (ESP)
This week the Thunder have 4 games. After hosting the Hawks the Thunder travel to New Orleans and Boston, then finish out the week back home against the Wolves.
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