Brooklyn Nets
foxsports
The Nets spent this offseason trying to shed money and disliked personalities. They certainly accomplished that, but did they gain the talent to replace their losses?
ESPN's analytics team says, no. A resounding no.
ESPN ran numbers on each team's offseason, and let's just say, it didn't love the Brooklyn offseason. Here's why:
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The Nets made the playoffs last year, but won just 38 games. This year, they're probably less talented. Let's just say things may not be so peachy this year in Brooklyn.
(h/t The Brooklyn Game for the find)
It starts with injury-prone center Brook Lopez and his new three-year, $63 million deal. Over the past four seasons, Lopez has averaged only about 1,250 minutes per season — about half the playing time of a healthy full-time starter. While our forecast gave Lopez credit for his increased load last season (2,100 minutes), it remained a moderately skeptical about his long-term health outlook, especially given the poor track record of 7-footers battling foot problems.
But even if Lopez somehow proves capable of staying on the court for another 2,100 minutes during each of the next 3 seasons, his surprisingly pedestrian Predictive RPM (+0.24) is still far too low to justify his new $21 million-per-year salary. Remarkably, despite his rim protection, skilled post game and advanced ability to play facing the basket, Lopez no longer moves the needle in terms of team efficiency. Three seasons ago (2012-13), prior to the injury that derailed his 2013-14 campaign, Lopez posted a borderline All-Star-level RPM of +3.6. But since that time his usage rate, true shooting percentage, blocks, free throws, and assists have all fallen, and the team has played roughly as well — or poorly — when he’s on the bench as it does when he’s on the court.
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