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Bold Prediction: Jahlil Okafor Will Compete For Top NBA Scorer

Updated Mar. 4, 2020 12:42 p.m. ET

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In 2015-2016, Duke rookie center Jahlil Okafor carried the Philadelphia 76ers offense. Wiser, experienced, and no longer a one-man show, Jahlil Okafor will explode offensively

“Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” – George Santayana (in The Life of Reason, 1905)

History is a tough subject for Philadelphia right now. There is little joy in losing, and for the past four seasons the Philadelphia 76ers have failed to achieve a .500 record. Whether that changes this year or not, returning center Jahlil Okafor will do his part.

You see, he’s been suffering a debate of the limits to his basketball defense. In the process, we’ve missed a huge topic. As my bold prediction for 2017, I expect that Philadelphia 76er Jahlil Okafor will compete for the top NBA scoring title in 20160-2017.

In 53 games in the 2015-2016 season, the young man scored 17.5 points per game from a hybrid center/power forward role. But that betrays the fact that he was improving. As teammates found ways to score, his role did not recede, but flourished.  To be honest, his best month was February 2016, the month he injured his knee and eventually ended his season.  He was up to the pace of 18.5 points per game for the month, and  over 20 points per game in his last nine games.

December 30, 2015; Sacramento, CA, USA; Philadelphia 76ers head coach Brett Brown instructs during the third quarter against the Sacramento Kings at Sleep Train Arena. The 76ers defeated the Kings 110-105. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

Moving Pieces

He was a rookie who was trying to fit among the many moving parts on the Philadelphia 76ers team last season.  On many nights, he merely out-talented his way through. On some nights he could not.  In spite of his offensive prowess, he was still a rookie after all.

Rookies need predictability, structure, limited variables. Once mastered, then the player can take on new variables.

From day one, Jahlil Okafor was given near chaos.  With 33 percent of the team recovering from injury, he was forced to play and focus on scoring only. The attention of the head coach was so immersed in fixing roster holes, that he could not dedicate the time nor attention needed to build harmony among Okafor and Noel.

Feb 23, 2016; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Philadelphia 76ers center Jahlil Okafor (8) attempt to dribbles past the defense of Orlando Magic forward Jason Smith (14) during the second half at Wells Fargo Center. The Orlando Magic won 124-115. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

Post Game Specialist

To understand the potential upside of Jahlil Okafor, one must truly understand his game. He entered the NBA as a throwback to the old-school “back to the basket” center.  He likes to shoot in the paint, and he’s very good at doing so.

Is that all he will ever do?  It’s easy to acquiesce to social media pressure or conclude that it is what it is.  But he’s more than just a one-shot center.  Here are some highlights:

One of the things that jumps out to me is his uncanny moves. He lulls defenders into positioning, then bursts to outpace them to his shot.  His shot is more than one version repeated.  Okafor’s deep, yet polished, arsenal in the post consists of everything from hooks, flips, spins, up-and-unders and drop steps.

While he is at his best backing the defender up and knocking him off-balance with one shoulder, he can quick spin over the other for a one-handed bank. Smaller opponents cannot defend him. Against stronger bigger defenders, incredible body control and a quick first step allow Okafor to face up, attack and separate with a hop step.

Jahlil Okafor’s offensive game is the antithesis of small ball.  The smaller NBA teams become, the more his style of offense will feast.

Feb 23, 2016; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Philadelphia 76ers center Jahlil Okafor (8) dribbles against Orlando Magic center Nikola Vucevic (9) during the first quarter at Wells Fargo Center. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

Worst Scenario

The 2015-2016 rookie season could not have laid out more obstacles for the young man to overcome in a single season.  Why do I say this?

The team went 10-72, and lost their first 18 games before winning on December 1, 2015.

Recall the team Okafor was joining.  On opening night against the Boston Celtics, only nine players suited up, the point guard was Isaiah Canaan, and Nerlens Noel played power forward.  Three point shooting for the night came in at 31.8%.

The team had 12 assists that night, four of them coming from undrafted rookie T.J.McConnell off the bench.  Jahlil Okafor scored 26 points.  On that night, Carl Landry, Tony Wroten, Robert Covington, Kendall Marshall,Nik Stauskas, and Joel Embiid were injured.

The team would never see Embiid that season, would not see Landry until Dec. 23, Wroten on Dec. 5, Marshall until Dec. 11, and Covington back fully until Nov.16.

Jahlil Okafor was disciplined for off-court transgressions, and was suspended for games on December 2nd and 5th.

Dec 7, 2015; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Philadelphia 76ers owner Joshua Harris (L) introduces Jerry Colangelo (R) as special advisor before a game against the San Antonio Spurs at Wells Fargo Center. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

Too Much Too Little Too Late

The team had no starting guard, had not resolved the front court roles, and had overtaxed head coach Brett Brown’s ability to “wing it” in setting up a competitive roster.

New 76ers executive, Jerry Colangelo, took action.  He persuaded Mike D’Antoni to join the team as the assistant head coach to help take the pressure off Brown, and then turned his attention to the roster.

Then the team traded for Ish Smith.

The team played point guard Ish Smith on December 26.  While Smith was a bona fide experienced point guard, this would be Okafor’s first opportunity to play as his teammate. Smith had played the previous year as a 76er, and would be more familiar with the play of Nerlens Noel.

Finally, the team brought in veteran power forward Elton Brand to help mentor young Sixers players, but most of all, Jahlil Okafor.

The team tried to mesh Nerlens Noel at power forward, and then tried to move Okafor to the four. Finally, team exec Jerry Colangelo weighed in to declare Noel as a rim-protecting center on Feb. 2.

By the morning of February 29, having played in just 53 games, Jahlil Okafor’s season ended.

Feb 28, 2016; Orlando, FL, USA; Philadelphia 76ers center Jahlil Okafor (8) drives to the basket as Orlando Magic center Nikola Vucevic (9) defends during the first quarter at Amway Center. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Held His Own

The team was never designed to provide Jahlil Okafor with a scheme he would thrive in.  To be honest, the team was focused on the healthy return of center Joel Embiid, and upon learning complications had developed, selected Okafor in the 2015 draft as insurance.

While many expected this move to result in an immediate trade, the team held fast with the intent to play Okafor as Embiid continued to rehab.  But Okafor was selected after another center that year. The Minnesota Timberwolves selected Karl Anthony Towns number one overall.  Get used to it.  Jahlil Okafor will be compared to Karl Anthony Towns his entire career.  So how did Okafor do in a head on clash?  25 points to Towns’ 6 points.

But Okafor faced some of the NBA’s best, and performed very well.  In this video, he faced DeMarcus Cousins, and nearly kept pace with the veteran center.  For Cousins’ 28 points, Okafor put up 26 points.

In the end, Jahlil Okafor held his own against the NBA’s best, both present and future.  Keep in mind that his team was not built to his specs.  He did much of his season on his own.

Feb 21, 2016; Dallas, TX, USA; Philadelphia 76ers center Jahlil Okafor (8) celebrates making a basket against the Dallas Mavericks during the first quarter at the American Airlines Center. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

Best Scenario

While much of the focus right now has been on the new faces of Ben Simmons, Dario Saric, and even Joel Embiid, most news about Jahlil Okafor announces or squelches the latest trade rumors.

Now that Jahlil Okafor has survived all trade rumors, he should think about one thing.  Offense.

Buried in the dark recesses of our minds was a basketball team that did not pass well, did not shoot particularly well, did not sink shots from beyond the arc, and at times looked overmanned and overmatched.  This was Jahlil Okafor’s rookie experience.

Three words summarize those conditions for this year’s team: It Won’t Happen.

Without a doubt, Jahlil Okafor is a special NBA talent.  Not perfect. Not All-Pro. Special. As such, his offense deserves to receive as much discussion as the short-comings of his defense.

Jun 24, 2016; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Philadelphia 76ers number one overall draft pick Ben Simmons (25) and number twenty-fourth overall draft pick Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot (20) pose for a photo at a press conference at the Philadelphia College Of Osteopathic Medicine. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

Rising Tide Floats All Boats

In adding the likes of Sergio Rodriguez, Ben Simmons, and Dario Saric, the team has amped up ball movement.  Coming off just 21.5 assists per game last year, that number could climb to 25 assists this year. Who will benefit the most?

Jahlil Okafor.

Similarly, the team has bolstered long range shooting for Ben Simmons.  But Simmons can thread needles, and will deliver the ball to the hot hand. The hot hands of Jahlil Okafor will feast.

The team will not destroy the competition, but the 76ers will win games. And Gerald Henderson will be there to fan the flames of competitive spirit in his teammates. On those nights, Okafor’s flames will burn brightest.

The top scoring center in the NBA last season was Demarcus Cousins, whose 26.9 points per game came in at number four in the NBA.  The second highest scoring center was Brook Lopez who came in at 20.6 points per game. Okafor can score in that neighborhood this year.

Simmons brings to Okafor what Rajon Rondo brought to Cousins, assists.   Dario Saric brings to Okafor what Rudy Gay brought to Cousins, an alternate scorer with some three point range. Okafor will have the right pieces around him.

Mar 1, 2016; Villanova, PA, USA; Philadelphia 76ers forward Jahlil Okafor watches game between Villanova Wildcats and DePaul Blue Demons during the second half at The Pavilion. Villanova defeated DePaul, 83-62. Mandatory Credit: Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports

NBA Is Ripe

While its easy to dictate what the team should do, factors of the NBA seldom align with our wishes.  Much like Allen Iverson, a player with great offensive talent, good things only happen when the team provides the right scheme and teammates.

For now, Jahlil Okafor is a post game specialist.  Since he is so very young and so very new to the NBA, he could metamorphosis into any number of roles.  Meanwhile, the NBA is trending to smaller faster perimeter shooters.

Should the Philadelphia 76ers stick with Okafor, the team has a very powerful offensive weapon to rely upon going forward.

Much of the team’s hope lies in the newly arriving faces.  But there is a reason “a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush”.  Okafor is known, can score, and will improve tremendously as the talent around him improves.

It will all come down to opportunity.  While the team has invested quite a bit to develop Joel Embiid, Okafor can pick up the remaining minutes and play great offense.  Is there room on the 76ers for a front court scoring threat? As the NBA goes small, there had better be.

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