National Basketball Association

5 alternative NBA timelines for Yao Ming

Published Jun. 30, 2017 6:28 p.m. ET

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LOS ANGELES – OCTOBER 26: Yao Ming

Yao Ming was one of the most influential big men in the NBA in the 2000s. What if his NBA career went down one of these five alternate paths?

Chinese seven-footer Yao Ming will be enshrined in the Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of Fame on Friday evening as a member of the 2016 Class. Yao paved the way for basketball’s reach and popularity in China. He was an eight-time NBA All-Star, a five-time All-NBA selection, and nearly averaged a double-double in his nine-year NBA career with the Houston Rockets (2002-11).

Yao continued the great legacy of Rockets centers from Moses Malone to Ralph Sampson to Hakeem Olajuwon in his 11 seasons in Houston. He finished with 9,247 career points, 4,494 career rebounds, and 920 career blocks in his promising, but injury-riddled NBA career.

His time in Houston was undeniable great for him and the NBA’s brand. Unfortunately like many big men, leg injuries were what derailed the 7-foot-6 center from Shanghai. When healthy, he was a good of a center as any in the NBA. Here are five alternative NBA timelines for the soon-to-be Hall of Famer Yao.

5. What if he entered the 1999 NBA Draft?

Yao would be the No. 1 overall pick by the Houston Rockets in the 2002 NBA Draft, but what if he entered the NBA Draft three years earlier in 1999? The 19-year-old Yao was supposedly pressured by his general manager with the CBA’s Shanghai Sharks to enter the 1999 NBA Draft, but a lousy deal that was later nullified kept Yao in China for three more seasons.

That deal would have had Yao paying 33% of his earnings to his agency. For an international star like Yao, that was a ludicrous slice of the pie for an agency to make off its client. No wonder he stayed in the CBA until he was 22 years old.

Had Yao entered the 1999 NBA Draft, where would he have gone in the first round? Youth and playing overseas may have kept him from being a high-end lottery pick, but size and potential made him seem like a worthy gamble in the mid-to-late first round.

Three teams picking in that ranve immediately jump out as potential Yao landing spots in the 1999 NBA Draft: the New York Knicks, the Rockets, and the Atlanta Hawks. New York had the No. 15 pick that year and selected French center Frederic Weis. He never made it to the NBA.

Yao as Patrick Ewing’s eventual successor in Madison Square Garden probably keeps Pat Riley in New York. Maybe New York doesn’t go on to be a train wreck in the next 15 seasons? He would have been bigger in New York than Kristaps Porzingis.

Houston was picking No. 22 in 1999, selecting senior power forward from New Mexico Kenny Thomas. The Rockets could have monitored Yao’s minutes earlier in his career by signing him at 19 as opposed to 22. Perhaps this adds longevity to Yao’s NBA career and Houston wins an NBA Championship in the mid-2000s?

Atlanta had three mid-first round picks in 1999: No. 17, No. 22, and No. 27. The Hawks were on the fall as an organization around this time. Its three first-round picks didn’t pan out in the form of Cal Bowdler, Dion Glover, and Jumaine Jones.

Atlanta would miss the Eastern Conference Playoffs for nine straight seasons until Al Horford’s rookie year with the Hawks in 2007-08. Yao would have been a media market that China was familiar with from the 1996 Summer Olympic Games. Fellow 1999 first-round pick by the Hawks in Jason Terry could have helped Atlanta make the NBA Playoffs in the early 2000s with Yao in the frontcourt.

OAKLAND, CA – NOVEMBER 29: Yao Ming

4. What if he’d been drafted by the Golden State Warriors?

Part of the deal for Yao to enter the 2002 NBA Draft was to be assured that the Rockets were going to pick him at No. 1. His group of advisors, Team Yao, wanted him to play for a proud franchise with a great track record with centers. It’s hard to top Houston in that regard.

One of the two other teams besides Houston picking in the top three of the 2002 NBA Draft was the Golden State Warriors. Golden State drafted Duke Blue Devils junior swingman Mike Dunleavy, Jr. at No. 3. Could Yao have thrived play in the Bay Area?

At the time, there may not have been a worse run organization in the Western Conference than Golden State. After the Run TMC years under head coach Don Nelson, Golden State struggled to make the Western Conference Playoffs. Warriors fans continued to show their support of their team, but this was a doormat of a basketball franchise in the 2000s.

Yao’s bust potential in Oakland is too high to not consider. However, he would have been a crowd favorite in the Bay Area. He’d be closer to his native Shanghai playing on the West Coast. Marketing opportunities for Yao on both sides of the Pacific Ocean would have been tremendous.

Golden State might have been a better place to amplify Yao’s international popularity than in Gulf Coast Texas, but playing for the Warriors in his 20s might have cost him a shot at Springfield enshrinement. Yao was good enough to make horrid Golden State a playoff-caliber team, but nothing more. In that era of Warriors basketball, that would have meant the world to Bay Area hoop heads.

China’s Yao Ming (L) is blocked by Lithuania’s Marjonas Petravicius during the men’s quarterfinal basketball match China vs. Lithuania on August 20, 2008 at the Olympic basketball arena in Beijing, as part of the 2008 Beijing Olympic Games. Lithuania won 94 to 68. AFP PHOTO / ANTONIO SCORZA (Photo credit should read ANTONIO SCORZA/AFP/Getty Images)

3. What if he didn’t play in the 2008 Summer Olympic Games?

If anybody doubts Yao’s toughness as a professional basketball player, consider taking a look at some video clips of him playing for Team China in the 2008 Summer Olympic Games in Beijing.

Yao was basically playing on one foot. He was in immense pain physically, but knew how important it was for him to represent his country in the 2008 Beijing Games. Though China didn’t medal on the hardwood that summer, Yao gained a ton of respect internationally for just competing with a fractured foot.

From an optical standpoint, this was the right move for Yao to play in the 2008 Olympics in terms of basketball legacy in China. However, this decision to play easily cut Yao’s NBA career back by at least three seasons. He would make two more trips to the NBA All-Star Game in 2009 and 2011, but Yao returned to the NBA essentially shot as a player before his 29th birthday.

By not playing for Team China in 2008, Yao NBA’s career might have come to a close in 2013-14 or 2014-15. He would have eclipsed 10,000 career points, 5,000 career rebounds, and 1,000 career blocks. Perhaps he could have helped get the Rockets to the Western Conference Finals at least once in the late 2000s? That two-week stint in Beijing cost Yao three years off the back-end of his NBA career.

BEIJING, CHINA – JULY 01: (CHINA OUT) Joakim Noah of Chicago Bulls talks with Yao Ming (R) during the 2013 Yao Foundation Charity Game between China and the NBA Stars at MasterCard Center on July 1, 2013 in Beijing, China. (Photo by VCG/VCG via Getty Images)

2. What if he was drafted by the Chicago Bulls?

If there was one team that could have handled the Yao phenomenon as well as Houston did, it would have to be the Chicago Bulls. Chicago was terrible in the post-Michael Jordan years. The Bulls had the No. 1 pick in the 1999 NBA Draft and the No. 2 pick in the 2002 NBA Draft.

To say that Chicago would have used its first pick in 1999 on Yao over Eddy Curry seems a bit farfetched, but the Bulls were in the market to land him in 2002. Chicago picked Duke point guard Jay Williams at No. 2. Williams would suffer a near-death motorcycle accident after his rookie year and would never play in the NBA again.

Yao was a dynamic media spectacle. Chicago was well equipped to deal with that from its days with people like Jordan, Scottie Pippen, Dennis Rodman, and Phil Jackson. The Bulls with Yao don’t toil in obscurity in the early 2000s. Chicago makes the Eastern Conference Playoffs by 2004 in a very tough Central Division. All four of the Bulls’ division rivals were good to great in the mid-2000s.

Coaching would have been key in Yao’s development. Vinny Del Negro probably struggles with Yao and Tom Thibodeau drives Yao into the ground on the defensive end. One interesting element in Yao with the Bulls is that they’d have a great low-post tandem with him and Joakim Noah in the late 2000s. It’d be hard for teams in the East to score on that Bulls frontcourt.

Yao on the Bulls means Derrick Rose never laces up for his hometown team. Chicago probably doesn’t win an NBA Championship with Yao, but appears in at least two Eastern Conference Finals with him as the Bulls’ centerpiece. The Bulls don’t stink for eight to 10 years post-Jordan if they land Yao in 2002.

UNITED STATES – OCTOBER 18: Basketball: Closeup of Houston Rockets Yao Ming (11) on court during preseason game vs Milwaukee Bucks, Houston, TX 10/18/2006 (Photo by John W. McDonough/Sports Illustrated/Getty Images) (SetNumber: X76881 TK1 R12)

1. What if he stayed healthy?

This is the biggest question surrounding Yao’s NBA career: What if he stayed healthy? That’s difficult to say, given he played in the Western Conference with other great big men like Shaquille O’Neal, Tim Duncan, and Dirk Nowitzki. However, Houston manages to win at least one NBA Finals during Yao’s time in Houston.

He had a great head coach in Jeff Van Gundy. Yao’s superior health in this alternative universe means Van Gundy never stops coaching and never becomes an NBA television analyst. Van Gundy is now revered as the second-best head coach in the NBA to San Antonio’s Gregg Popovich.

Players like Tracy McGrady, Steve Francis, and Cuttino Mobley have better careers in Houston thanks to Yao being healthy. Houston’s rivalry with San Antonio intensifies, as the Rockets play the Spurs in at least two Western Conference Finals.

Suppose the Rockets get to the NBA Finals and have to play the 2005-06 Miami Heat or the 2006-07 Cleveland Cavaliers. Yao was one of the only big men that befuddled Shaq when he was in his prime. LeBron James’ Cavaliers would have had no shot against a Rockets team with a healthy Yao.

In short, Yao surpasses Sampson and Malone in Rockets center lore with one title and two NBA Finals appearances. The argument between he and Olajuwon as the best player in franchise history is now on the table. Big men and their foot injuries…