What’s Next: How the Wilson Contreras Trade Impacts the Red Sox and Cardinals

Earlier this month at the Winter Meetings, Red Sox chief baseball officer Craig Breslow noted, not so subtly, that the club was looking to add power to the lineup. At the same time, Boston was linked to then-free-agent slugger Pete Alonso, with reports stating that Red Sox executives connected with the first baseman before he signed with the Orioles. 

After striking out on Alonso, reportedly making a lower offer in years and money than the five years and $155 million he accepted from Baltimore, the Red Sox needed less than two weeks to pivot and find their answer at first base. Boston traded for first baseman and designated hitter Willson Contreras, according to multiple reports, and sent three pitchers to the Cardinals, including right-hander Hunter Dobbins, in the move.  

Though Contreras isn’t quite as much of a power threat as Alonso, the 33-year-old has posted a 123 OPS+ or better in each of his last four seasons. The right-handed Contreras will be a consistent, above-average presence in a Red Sox lineup that’s too left-handed, helping to balance out their offense with a middle-of-the-order threat. Defensively, Contreras didn’t catch a single inning behind the plate this year, as he transitioned to first base full-time for the first time in his career. His glove graded out very well, recording 6 Outs Above Average, which ranked third among all major-league first basemen. 

Here’s what’s next for the Red Sox, Cardinals, and the trade market after Contreras’ big switch to the cutthroat American League East:

What’s next for Boston

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Contreras is an ideal fit for a Red Sox lineup that needed help at first base while Triston Casas continues rehabbing from a ruptured patellar tendon. The addition of Contreras allows Boston to slow-play Casas return – he can begin the season in Triple-A and ease his way back into the lineup whenever he’s fully healed. And even when Casas does bounce back into the major-league lineup, he can split time with Contreras at DH and first base. 

Now, more than ever, Masataka Yoshida looks like the odd man out. The lefty-swinging Fukui, Japan native will see the majority of his batting opportunities go to Contreras and Casas. Yoshida has spent his two seasons with the Red Sox in left field as well as DH, but they now have a surplus of players clogging up the outfield, with Roman Anthony, Jarren Duran and Ceddanne Rafaela leading the pack. Yoshida is taking up a roster spot and the Red Sox could be having trouble moving him for any real value since he’s essentially a one-tool player coming off a down year. 

Plus, the Red Sox are still targeting a big-name free agent, preferring to re-sign Alex Bregman and, if not, maybe even spend exorbitantly on Bo Bichette to play second base. Contreras was the club’s first big move to bolster the lineup, and Boston still has money to spend on a top-tier bat. Expect Breslow to continue to make moves this winter to add at least one more power bat and put the finishing touches on their roster configuration. 

What’s next for St. Louis

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Chaim Bloom, having finally taken over St. Louis’ baseball operations, entered the offseason with the intention of moving his top three veteran players in order to rebuild the organization by focusing on player development. Two of those three veterans are off the board – with both right-hander Sonny Gray and Contreras joining the Red Sox through separate trades. Third baseman Nolan Arenado, who has been floated in trade talks for the past few winters and trade deadlines, remains the final player to be dealt by Bloom to complete his offseason goal. 

Throughout all of this, the Cardinals' main focus is to add controllable starting pitching, and the haul they received for Contreras certainly accomplishes that. The 26-year-old Dobbins was the headliner in the trade, with two more right-handed prospects joining him in St. Louis in the deal. Dobbins — who endeared himself to Red Sox nation by saying: "If the Yankees were the last team to give me a contract, I'd retire" — was also a solid major-league-ready starter for them on the mound. Boasting a low walk rate, he threw 61 innings as a rookie before tearing his ACL in July, and now he figures to get a decent runway in the Cardinals’ starting rotation. 

Since the Cardinals are not contending any time soon, acquiring a few more young arms to enter into their revamped pitching development program, while clearing payroll, is in line with their rebuilding goals this winter. 

What’s next for the trade market

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The Contreras trade is expected to kick off more action in the trade market, an area that has been more robust than previous offseasons this winter. The trade noise for Arenado in particular, as well as Brendan Donovan, should be getting louder after Gray and Contreras bounced from St. Louis. 

It’s no secret that the Cardinals have been actively looking to trade Arenado and clear their payroll of the two years and roughly $42 million remaining on his nine-year, $275 million contract — with the Rockies still covering a smaller portion of that sum. Parting ways with Arenado would also allow the Cardinals to give their prospects more playing time, in accordance with their youth movement. But that objective is getting tougher and tougher with Arenado’s declining power and no-trade clause. 

Some of the splashier trade targets potentially on the block this offseason are: Diamondbacks second baseman Ketel Marte, Brewers right-hander Freddy Peralta, and of course, Tigers southpaw Tarik Skubal. Other names that have been floated in trade conversations are Nationals left-hander Mackenzie Gore and Red Sox outfielder Duran. There’s still plenty of offseason left, so keep an eye out for some of these names to be moved before Opening Day rosters are finalized.

Deesha Thosar covers Major League Baseball as a reporter and columnist for FOX Sports. She previously covered the Mets as a beat reporter for the New York Daily News. The daughter of Indian immigrants, Deesha grew up on Long Island and now lives in Queens. Follow her on Twitter at @DeeshaThosar.