College Football

College football odds: How sportsbooks set lines on bowl games

Updated Dec. 22, 2021 7:28 p.m. ET

By Sam Panayotovich
FOX Sports Betting Analyst

College football bowl season is arguably the most nerve-racking time of the calendar year for a bookmaker.

Las Vegas sportsbooks open their individual bowl game markets during the first week of December and actively take bets on all 43 FBS bowl games for weeks. And since most of these games don't get played until after Christmas, many things can transpire between posting and kickoff.

Players opt out for the NFL, coaches leave for greener pastures, and it's impossible to ignore the growing potential for programs to be decimated by positive COVID-19 tests and outbreaks.

Due to all of those reasons, it's not unusual at all to see betting lines move seven points or more.

"I told my staff when we first put these games up that we've got to take lower limits way in advance," Golden Nugget executive sportsbook director Tony Miller told FOX Sports.

"We raise our limits the week of a bowl game, but until then, we don't know who's declaring for the NFL Draft, which players have COVID and which coaches are jumping ship. With those three factors, things get crazy."

Information and speculation are paramount during bowl season, and if the right people get the correct intel before the sportsbooks do, it's on.

This bowl season, the first bet I made was Western Michigan +6 against Nevada in the Quick Lane Bowl. Rumors were swirling that Wolfpack head coach Jay Norvell would take a bigger job and quarterback Carson Strong would declare for the NFL Draft.

Both things eventually came to fruition, and the line was blasted to kingdom come.

FOX Bet is currently dealing Western Michigan -7, which is 13 points off the opening point spread. If I lose Western Michigan +6, I'll dive inside a bottle of bourbon without water wings.

"Some of these middles are wide open," Miller explained. "Especially when the lines move six to seven points or more. The wise guys are gonna take both sides at good numbers. That's why we take lower limits at the beginning. We're only booking $2,000 to $3,000 a side when the games go up. We'll be taking $20,000 closer to kickoff, so we won't be hung out to dry on big middles."

Bookmakers clearly don't expect to see a motivated Nevada squad, and that's why the line has continued to run toward Western Michigan: knowing which programs care and which ones don't is more than half the battle.

"Motivation is the key word," Miller said. "Do players want to play for the team when their coach just bolted? Notre Dame is a great example, where you hope the kids have something to play for. To me, Bob Stoops coming out of retirement for the bowl game is a big boost for Oklahoma. I think they annihilate Oregon at the Alamodome. Other teams aren't so lucky.

"We'll always take bets until we get to the right number, but trying to quantify how many points a departed coach is worth is one of the toughest things we have to do as bookmakers."

Starting quarterbacks are still the ones that affect the betting line the most, so all eyes and ears will be focused on guys like Matt Corral (Ole Miss) and Sam Howell (North Carolina Tar Heels) over the coming days.

If either quarterback has a change of heart and decides not to play, you could easily see those betting lines move four or five points.

Remember, Pittsburgh was a 3-point favorite when quarterback Kenny Pickett told "The Dan Patrick Show" that he was undecided on playing in Pitt's bowl game against Michigan State.

After Pickett tweeted that he was declaring for the NFL a week later, Michigan State swung to the favorite, and Sparty is now -2.5 at FOX Bet.

The three bowl games that should have minimal opt-out drama are the Cotton Bowl (Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Cincinnati Bearcats), Orange Bowl (Michigan Wolverines vs. Georgia Bulldogs) and the College Football Playoff National Championship.

You see, everybody craves the chance to play for a national title.

"I opened Cincinnati at 200-to-1 in the future book, and some tickets are still lingering out there," Miller reported. "If the Bearcats win these next two games and win the national championship, I'm going to be hurting.

"But I don't think they'll be able to hang with the Tide."

Miller expects to see a rematch of the SEC Championship between Alabama and Georgia for all the marbles on January 10 in Indianapolis.

"Georgia is sitting back and licking its chops, waiting for revenge. I'm sticking with Georgia to go all the way. I think the Bulldogs are the better football team, and they'll win a close game in the end on that last Monday night."

Miller and his bookmaking buddies certainly have their work cut out for them at this time of the year. It's tough enough to make point spreads on over 40 games while trying to gauge motivation and stave off bettors that get vital information before the house does.

And then there's that big ol' COVID-19 elephant in the corner of the room.

"I've been doing this a long time," Miller said. "COVID is the most challenging thing. Players getting sick and entering protocol is really difficult for us to monitor across all the sports. We just don't know who's playing day-to-day and who's going to be out tonight or tomorrow night.

"And new things pop up every single day. We're constantly checking social media, constantly ripping through news reports and we're taking games off the board left and right until we get the facts in order."

Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and NESN. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. He'll probably pick against your favorite team. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.

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