College Basketball

Value in Oregon Ducks winning Pac-12 Conference Tournament?

Updated Mar. 15, 2023 11:00 a.m. ET

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Geoff Schwartz

FOX Sports Betting Analyst

The Pac-12 basketball tournament begins in Las Vegas Wednesday, and UCLA is looking to capture its first conference tournament win since 2014.

At FOX Bet, UCLA is +120 to win the Pac-12 in men's hoops. The darlings of Westwood finished the regular season first in the conference with a 27-4 record. The Bruins are rightfully the favorites to win the tournament. 

However, I think the Oregon Ducks present excellent betting value. 

Let’s dive into why. 

Oregon Ducks: +1100 at FOX Bet

Oregon is the only team other than the two big dog programs, UCLA and Arizona, that can win the Pac-12 tournament. The Ducks are a talented basketball team that has battled injuries all season, but they finally got healthy down the stretch. Only five of their players were able to play at least 23 of the squad’s 31 games this season. UCLA and Arizona, on the other hand, have nine players who have seen action in more than 23 games. 

Injuries, combined with other issues, resulted in Oregon playing inconsistently this season. It’s been maddening to watch. There were long stretches during games throughout the season where the Ducks were stagnant, even though they rank 28th in offensive efficiency. But when things are right, the Ducks roll. 

Oregon dominated Arizona earlier this season and defeated USC and Arizona State — both teams looking at tournament bids. 

Coach Dana Altman & Co. have a bye in the first round of their conference play and will get Washington State in their first game on Thursday. They split the season series with the Cougars, winning at home and losing on the road. But when it comes to this Ducks-Cougars matchup, I have a couple of concerns.

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I am concerned with Oregon’s inability to shoot the three ball well, and worried about the Cougars and their grinding pace. Oregon does have the better overall team and athletes, though, so that’s a positive. Also, it is worth noting that Altman has a 21-8 record in the Pac-12 tournament since becoming the Ducks head coach in 2010. He has only had a single tournament where his team didn’t win at least one game. It'll be tough, but I do expect Oregon to beat the Cougars.

If the Ducks take down Washington State, they should get UCLA in the semifinals. Oregon has lost to the Bruins twice this season — once in a game that was within a bucket with four minutes left and another where Oregon was ahead at half-time. UCLA’s defense just overwhelmed Oregon in those games. However, UCLA’s best defensive player and Pac-12 Defensive Player of the Year, Jaylen Clark, is out this week, and the Bruin defense will not be the same without him. This means UCLA could be in for an upset when facing this tall, athletic and rangy Oregon squad. 

Oregon’s final opponent is most likely Arizona, but it could end up being USC. Oregon has beaten both teams, and you’d have them at +1100 in this game. This means you can hedge out of your futures bet or let it ride. Bettors have some options to make money if Oregon can advance that far. The same could apply in a semifinal game against the Bruins if you manage your bankroll correctly.

Ultimately, Oregon at +1100 is excellent value for a squad that is just as talented as the top dogs in the conference.  

PICK: Oregon (+1100 at FOX Bet) to win Pac-12 Tournament

Geoff Schwartz played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. He is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. Follow him on Twitter at @GeoffSchwartz.

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Geoff Schwartz