Dolphins vs. Patriots 2025 Prediction, Odds, Picks - Sep 14

In a matchup of two division rivals, the Miami Dolphins (0-1) will play the New England Patriots (0-1). The Dolphins are small favorites (-1.5). The matchup has an over/under of 43.5 points.

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Dolphins vs. Patriots Odds & Betting Lines

Dolphins vs. Patriots Prediction & Pick

• Pick ATS: Dolphins (-1.5)
  
• Pick OU: Under (43.5)
  
• Prediction: Dolphins 25 - Patriots 16

How to Watch Miami vs. New England

• Game date: Sunday, September 14, 2025
• Time: 1 p.m. ET
• Venue: Hard Rock Stadium
• Location: Miami Gardens, Florida
• TV: CBS
• Live Boxscore: FOX Sports

Dolphins vs. Patriots Recent Matchups

• Miami holds a 4-1 record against New England in their last five matchups.
• Over their last five head-to-head matchups, Miami has put up 125 points, while New England has accumulated 82.

Miami Betting Info

• Miami compiled a 7-9-1 record against the spread last season.
• The Dolphins had an ATS record of 4-4-1 as 1.5-point favorites or more last year.
• Miami and its opponent combined to go over the point total in eight of 17 contests last season.
• The Dolphins were the moneyline favorite nine total times last season. They went 6-3 in those games.
• In games it played as a moneyline favorite with odds of -125 or shorter, Miami had a 6-3 record (winning 66.7% of its games).
• Based on this contest's moneyline, the Dolphins have an implied win probability of 55.6%.

Dolphins Stats (2024)

Miami's Key Players

Offense

• Last season over 17 games, De'Von Achane racked up 907 rushing yards and scored six rushing touchdowns. He averaged 53.4 yards per game and 4.5 per carry (17th in the NFL).
• Achane also was a part of the receiving game with 592 yards (34.8 per game) on 78 receptions (4.6 per game), while being targeted 87 times. He had six receiving touchdowns.
• Tua Tagovailoa had 2,867 passing yards, 19 touchdowns and seven interceptions. His completion percentage was 72.9% and he averaged 260.6 yards per game and 7.2 per attempt.
• Last season, Tyreek Hill caught 81 passes for 959 receiving yards with six touchdowns in the passing game. He was targeted 123 total times and averaged 4.8 receptions per game over 17 games played.
• Nick Westbrook-Ikhine was targeted 60 times, resulting in 32 catches for 497 yards (ninth in the NFL) last season for the Titans.

Defense

• In 2024, Jordyn Brooks amassed 3.0 sacks to go with 11.0 TFL and 143 tackles over 17 games.
• Tyrel Dodson had three interceptions on top of 107 tackles, 5.0 TFL, two sacks, and six passes defended.
• Zach Sieler had 10.0 sacks in addition to his 13.0 TFL, 55 tackles, and one interception.
• Minkah Fitzpatrick totaled 1.0 TFL, 96 tackles, and one interception over 17 games for the Steelers.

New England Betting Info

• New England put together a 7-9-1 ATS record last season.
• As 1.5-point underdogs or more, the Patriots went 7-9-1 against the spread last year.
• Last year, 11 New England games hit the over.
• Last season, the Patriots won four out of the 17 games, or 23.5%, in which they were the underdog.
• New England had a record of 4-13, a 23.5% win rate, when it was set as an underdog of +105 or more by sportsbooks last season.
• The moneyline for this contest implies a 48.8% chance of a victory for the Patriots.

Patriots Stats (2024)

New England's Key Players

Offense

• Drake Maye averaged 6.7 passing yards per attempt (27th in NFL) and 175.1 yards per game last year, completing 66.6% of his passes on the way to 2,276 total yards, 15 TDs and 10 INTs in 13 games.
• Maye also ran for two TDs and 421 yards.
• Rhamondre Stevenson had 801 yards rushing and seven rushing TDs, averaging 53.4 yards per game and 3.9 per attempt (36th in NFL).
• Stevenson also had 33 catches for 168 yards and one receiving TD. He was targeted 41 times and averaged 11.2 yards per game.
• Last year, Demario Douglas caught 66 passes for 621 yards and three TDs . He was targeted 87 times, and averaged 4.1 receptions in 16 games.
• Kayshon Boutte had 589 yards receiving and three TDs via 43 catches on 68 targets.

Defense

• During the 2024 season for the Raiders, Robert Spillane recorded 2.0 sacks to go with 10.0 TFL, 158 tackles, and two interceptions in 17 games.
• With the Titans last season, Harold Landry had 9.0 sacks plus 15.0 TFL and 71 tackles.
• Keion White recorded 5.0 sacks and 7.0 TFL and 56 tackles during the 2024 campaign.
• Anfernee Jennings compiled78 tackles, 7.0 TFL, 2.5 sacks, and one pass defended.

FOX Sports created this story using technology provided by Data Skrive and data from Sportradar.

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Miami Dolphins

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