Dolphins vs. Cowboys Prediction, Odds, Picks - Dec 24

Published Dec. 20, 2023 1:04 p.m. ET

Data Skrive

The Miami Dolphins (10-4) are favored by 1.5 points against the Dallas Cowboys (10-4) on December 24, 2023, starting at 4:25 PM ET, airing on FOX. An over/under of 51 points has been established for the matchup.

Dolphins vs. Cowboys Odds & Betting Lines

Dolphins vs Cowboys Betting Information updated as of December 20, 2023, 12:33 AM ET.
Favorite	Spread	Favorite Spread Odds	Underdog Spread Odds	Total	Over Total Odds	Under Total Odds
Dolphins	-1.5	-108	-112	51	-112	-108

Dolphins vs. Cowboys Prediction & Pick

Pick ATS: Dallas (+1.5)
Pick OU: Over (51)
Prediction: Dallas 27 - Miami 26

How to Watch Miami vs. Dallas

Game Date: Sunday, December 24, 2023
Time: 4:25 PM ET
Venue: Hard Rock Stadium
Location: Miami Gardens, Florida
TV: Watch on FOX

Dolphins vs. Cowboys Recent Matchups

Dallas owns a 4-1 record against Miami in their last five matchups.
In their last five head-to-head matchups, Dallas has scored 133 points against Miami, while surrendering only 99 points.

Miami Betting Info

Against the spread, Miami is 9-5-0 this season.
When playing as at least 1.5-point favorites this season, the Dolphins have an ATS record of 8-2.
Miami games this year have gone over the total in eight out of 14 opportunities (57.1%).
When playing as moneyline favorites, the Dolphins are 9-1 (winning 90% of the time).
When playing as a moneyline favorite with odds of -120 or shorter, Miami has a 9-1 record (winning 90% of its games).
Looking at this game's moneyline, the Dolphins' implied win probability is 54.5%.

Dolphins Stats

Stat	Average (Total)	Rank
Pass yards	274.4 (3,842)	1
Rush yards	139.6 (1,955)	4
Points scored	31.5 (441)	1
Pass yards against	203.1 (2,843)	10
Rush yards against	90.4 (1,265)	4
Points allowed	21.0 (294)	14

Miami's Key Players

Offense

Tua Tagovailoa ranks first in the NFL with 3,921 passing yards through 14 games this year, averaging 280.1 per game with a 71.0% completion percentage and 25 touchdowns (fifth in the NFL) against 10 interceptions.
Raheem Mostert averages 4.9 yards per carry (ninth in the NFL) and 69.0 yards per game, and has 966 total rushing yards (third in the NFL). He has scored 18 rushing TDs this season.
He's also hauled in 24 passes (on 31 targets) for 171 receiving yards with two touchdowns. He's averaging 12.2 receiving yards and 1.7 catches per game.
In 13 games played, Tyreek Hill is averaging 118.6 yards and 7.5 receptions per game to total 1,542 receiving yards (first in the NFL) and 97 catches (fourth in the NFL). He's been targeted 132 times, and has 12 receiving touchdowns (first in the NFL).
In the running game, Devon Achane averages 8.5 yards per attempt and 76.6 yards per game for 613 total rushing yards. He has scored seven rushing touchdowns this season.
Achane's 28 receiving targets have resulted in 21 receptions (2.6 per game) for 155 yards (19.4 per game) and two TDs.

Defense

On defense for the Dolphins, Bradley Chubb has put up 64 tackles, 9.0 TFL, and 9.5 sacks in 2023.
Christian Wilkins has 52 tackles, 10.0 TFL, and eight sacks this season.
This season, Zach Sieler has put up 7.5 sacks (third on the Dolphins) to go with 9.0 TFL, 46 tackles, and one interception.
David Long has 1.0 sack in addition to his 8.0 TFL and 89 tackles this year.

Dallas Betting Info

Dallas has gone 9-5-0 against the spread this year.
The Cowboys have yet to cover the spread this season when underdogs by 1.5 points or more in three chances.
This year, eight Dallas games have gone over the point total.
The Cowboys have been the underdog in three games this season, and they have failed to win any of those contests.
Dallas has been at least a +100 moneyline underdog three times this season, but lost all of those games.
The Cowboys have a 50.0% chance to win this game based on the implied probability of the moneyline.

Cowboys Stats

Stat	Average (Total)	Rank
Pass yards	251.6 (3,523)	6
Rush yards	116.5 (1,631)	12
Points scored	30.8 (431)	2
Pass yards against	176.9 (2,476)	4
Rush yards against	117.4 (1,644)	19
Points allowed	18.9 (264)	5

Dallas' Key Players

Offense

Through 14 games played this year, Dak Prescott has racked up 3,639 passing yards (fifth-best in the NFL), while throwing 28 touchdowns (second in the NFL) against seven interceptions and completing 68.8% of his passes.
He's added 212 yards on the ground (third on the Cowboys), while scoring two rushing touchdowns. He's averaging 15.1 yards per game and 4.4 per attempt.
CeeDee Lamb has 1,306 receiving yards (third in the NFL) and eight touchdowns (sixth in the NFL) on 103 receptions (second in the NFL), while being targeted 141 times.
So far this season in 14 games, Tony Pollard has churned out 848 rushing yards (leading the Cowboys and eighth in the NFL) and scored five rushing touchdowns. He averages 60.6 yards per game and 4.1 per carry (19th in the NFL).
Pollard's offensive output includes 51 receptions (3.6 per game) on 61 targets for 290 yards (20.7 per game), but he has not found the end zone in the passing game.
Jake Ferguson has 614 receiving yards and five touchdowns from 57 receptions after receiving 82 targets.

Defense

Micah Parsons has 12.5 sacks (first on the Cowboys and eighth in the NFL) to go with 14.0 TFL and 46 tackles over 13 games in 2023.
Daron Bland has registered 3.0 TFL, 60 tackles, and eight interceptions through 14 games.
Damone Clark has 4.0 TFL and 92 tackles.
Stephon Gilmore's season stats include 55 tackles and two interceptions through 14 games.

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