Warriors vs. Grizzlies Prediction, Odds, Picks - Feb. 25

The Memphis Grizzlies (21-35) go up against the Golden State Warriors (30-28) on February 25, 2026 at FedExForum. The Warriors match up against the Grizzlies in a game that Golden State is currently a moderate favorite by 3.5 points. A 226.5-point total is set for the matchup.

Take a look at everything you need to know about the Warriors-Grizzlies game, from the point spread, moneyline, total Over/Under and expert picks, as well as TV channel and streaming information.

Warriors vs. Grizzlies Game Information, TV Channel & Odds

• When: Wednesday, February 25, 2026 at 7:30 p.m. ET
• Where: FedExForum in Memphis, Tennessee
• TV: NBCS-BA and FDSSE
• Live Boxscore: FOX Sports

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Warriors vs. Grizzlies Prediction

ATS Pick: Grizzlies (+ 3.5)
O/U Pick: Over (226.5)
Score Prediction: Warriors 117 - Grizzlies 115

Warriors vs. Grizzlies Betting Insights

• Warriors games have finished over 226.5 points scored, their current matchup's total, 36 times (out of 58) this season.
• A total of 35 Grizzlies games this season (out of 56) have gone over 226.5 total points scored.
• The two teams average a combined 4.5 more points per game, 231, than this game's over/under of 226.5 points.
• Opponents of the two teams average a combined 5.2 more points per game, 231.7, than this game's over/under of 226.5 points.
• Golden State has been the favorite in 40 games this season and has come away with the win 23 times (57.5%) in those contests.
• Memphis has won in nine, or 24.3%, of the 37 contests it has been named as the odds-on underdog this year.
• After the last two head-to-head meetings, Golden State has a 2-0 record against Memphis.
• Both the Warriors and the Grizzlies are 1-1 against the spread in those contests.

Warriors Recent Trends

• The Warriors have gone 4-6 in their past 10 games, with a 3-7 record against the spread during that span.
• Golden State's average total over the last 10 games is 3.7 points fewer than the 226.5 total listed for this matchup.
• The Warriors are 25-32-1 against the spread this year.
• Golden State has been favored by 3.5 points or more 30 times this season and are 14-15-1 ATS in those matchups.
• Warriors games this year have gone over the total in 33 out of 56 opportunities (58.9%).
• The Warriors record 115.5 points per game, only 2.3 fewer points than the 117.8 the Grizzlies allow.
• Golden State has an 18-10-1 record against the spread and a 22-7 record overall when scoring more than 117.8 points.
• The Warriors make 46.1% of their shots from the field this season, which is 1.0 percentage point lower than the Grizzlies have allowed to their opponents (47.1%).
• Against the spread, the Warriors have performed better at home, covering 14 times in 30 home games, and 11 times in 28 road games.
• When playing at home, Golden State goes over the over/under 63.3% of the time (19 of 30 games). It has hit the over in 50% of road games (14 of 28 contests).
• As a moneyline favorite, the Warriors have picked up the win in 17 of 24 games at home, good for a .708 winning percentage. They have won six of 16 games on the road (.375) as a moneyline favorite.

Warriors Recent Stats

Warriors Leaders

• Brandin Podziemski posts 12.2 points, 3.7 assists and 5.0 rebounds per contest.
• Moses Moody puts up 11.9 points, 3.4 boards and 1.6 assists per game, shooting 44.4% from the floor and 40.2% from downtown with 2.5 made 3-pointers per game.
• Draymond Green posts 8.5 points, 5.1 assists and 5.7 boards per game.
• Quinten Post averages 7.5 points, 3.9 boards and 1.4 assists per game, shooting 43.5% from the field and 34.2% from downtown with 1.4 made treys per game.
• Al Horford averages 7.9 points, 2.5 assists and 4.9 boards.

Warriors Player Props

Grizzlies Recent Trends

• The Grizzlies have gone 3-7 over their last 10 contests, with a 6-4 record against the spread in that span.
• Memphis and its opponents have combined to score an average of 232.2 combined points over its last 10 games, 5.7 more than the 226.5 over/under in this matchup.
• Against the spread, the Grizzlies are 25-30-1 this year.
• Memphis has an ATS record of 11-17-1 in its 29 games when underdogs by 3.5 points or more this season.
• The Grizzlies have hit the over 48.2% of the time this year (27 of 56 games with a set point total).
• The Grizzlies score an average of 115.5 points per game, just 1.6 more points than the 113.9 the Warriors give up to opponents.
• Memphis has put together an 18-16-1 ATS record and a 16-19 overall record in games it scores more than 113.9 points.
• The Grizzlies' 45.9% shooting percentage from the field this season is the same as the Warriors have given up to their opponents.
• This season, the Grizzlies are 12-16-0 at home against the spread (.429 winning percentage). On the road, they are 13-14-1 ATS (.464).
• Memphis' games have finished above the over/under 53.6% of the time at home (15 of 28), and 42.9% of the time away (12 of 28).
• When moneyline favorites, the Grizzlies have won a lower percentage of games at home (8-6) than away (4-1).

Grizzlies Recent Stats

Grizzlies Leaders

• On a per-game basis, Cam Spencer gives the Grizzlies 11.3 points, 2.7 rebounds and 5.6 assists. He also averages 0.7 steals and 0.1 blocked shots.
• Jaylen Wells is putting up 12.3 points, 3.4 rebounds and 1.7 assists per contest. He's sinking 42.1% of his shots from the floor and 33.8% from beyond the arc, with 1.8 treys per game.
• The Grizzlies are getting 7.0 points, 2.0 rebounds and 3.4 assists per game from Walter Clayton Jr. this season.
• GG Jackson gets the Grizzlies 10.0 points, 3.8 rebounds and 1.3 assists per game while delivering 0.7 steals and 0.7 blocked shots.
• The Grizzlies are getting 5.6 points, 3.3 rebounds and 0.8 assists per game from Taylor Hendricks this year.

Grizzlies Player Props

FOX Sports created this story using technology provided by Data Skrive and data from Sportradar.

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National Basketball Association

Memphis Grizzlies

Golden State Warriors