Warriors vs. Grizzlies Prediction, Odds, Picks - Feb. 25

The Memphis Grizzlies (21-35) battle the Golden State Warriors (30-28) on February 25, 2026 at FedExForum. The Warriors are currently modest 3.5-point favorites over the Grizzlies. A 228.5-point over/under has been set for the game.

Here's everything you need to know to know about the Warriors-Grizzlies game, from the point spread, moneyline, total Over/Under and expert picks, as well as TV channel and streaming information.

Warriors vs. Grizzlies Game Information, TV Channel & Odds

• When: Wednesday, February 25, 2026 at 7:30 p.m. ET
• Where: FedExForum in Memphis, Tennessee
• TV: NBCS-BA and FDSSE
• Live Boxscore: FOX Sports

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Warriors vs. Grizzlies Prediction

ATS Pick: Grizzlies (+ 3.5)
O/U Pick: Over (228.5)
Score Prediction: Warriors 117 - Grizzlies 115

Warriors vs. Grizzlies Betting Insights

• The Warriors have played 32 games with over 228.5 points scored, their current matchup's point total, this season.
• This season, 32 of the Grizzlies' 56 total matchups have gone over 228.5 total points scored.
• The Warriors and the Grizzlies combine to average 2.5 more points per game than the total of 228.5 set for this matchup.
• Opponents of these teams have averaged a combined 231.7 points per game, 3.2 more than the point total in this matchup.
• Golden State has been chosen as the favorite in 40 games this year and has walked away with the win 23 times (57.5%) in those games.
• Memphis has won in nine, or 24.3%, of the 37 contests it has been named as the odds-on underdog this year.
• Golden State has come out on top in both of its last two head-to-head meetings with Memphis.
• Both the Warriors and the Grizzlies have 1-1 records against the spread in those outings.

Warriors Recent Trends

• The Warriors have a 3-7 record against the spread while finishing 4-6 overall over their past 10 contests.
• Golden State's average total over the last 10 games is 5.7 points fewer than the 228.5 over/under listed for this matchup.
• Against the spread, the Warriors are 25-32-1 this year.
• Golden State has an against the spread record of 14-15-1 in its 30 games as a favorite of 3.5 points or more so far this season.
• The Warriors have hit the over in 58.9% of their opportunities this year (33 times over 56 games with a set point total).
• The Warriors record 115.5 points per game, just 2.3 fewer points than the 117.8 the Grizzlies allow.
• Golden State has an 18-10-1 record against the spread and a 22-7 record overall when scoring more than 117.8 points.
• This season, the Warriors have a 46.1% shooting percentage from the field, which is 1.0% lower than the 47.1% of shots the Grizzlies' opponents have hit.
• The Warriors have done a better job covering the spread when playing at home (14-15-1) than they have in road affairs (11-17-0).
• Golden State has gone over the over/under in 19 of 30 home games (63.3%), compared to 14 of 28 road games (50%).
• As a moneyline favorite, the Warriors have won a higher percentage of their games when playing at home (.708) compared to road games (.375).

Warriors Recent Stats

Warriors Leaders

• Brandin Podziemski puts up 12.2 points, 5.0 rebounds and 3.7 assists per contest. Defensively, he averages 1.1 steals and 0.2 blocks.
• Moses Moody averages 11.9 points, 1.6 assists and 3.4 boards per contest.
• Draymond Green averages 8.5 points, 5.7 rebounds and 5.1 assists per contest, shooting 41.0% from the field and 32.0% from beyond the arc with 1.5 made treys per game.
• Quinten Post posts 7.5 points, 3.9 rebounds and 1.4 assists per contest. Defensively, he averages 0.4 steals and 0.5 blocks.
• Al Horford averages 7.9 points, 2.5 assists and 4.9 rebounds.

Grizzlies Recent Trends

• The Grizzlies have gone 3-7 over their last 10 contests, with a 6-4 record against the spread in that span.
• Memphis and its opponents have combined to score an average of 232.2 combined points over its last 10 games, 3.7 more than the 228.5 over/under in this matchup.
• The Grizzlies have played 56 games, with 25 wins against the spread.
• Memphis is 11-17-1 ATS when underdogs by 3.5 points or more this year.
• Grizzlies games this year have gone over the total in 27 of 56 opportunities (48.2%).
• The Grizzlies score an average of 115.5 points per game, just 1.6 more points than the 113.9 the Warriors give up.
• When it scores more than 113.9 points, Memphis is 18-16-1 against the spread and 16-19 overall.
• The Grizzlies' 45.9% shooting percentage from the field this season is the same as the Warriors have allowed to their opponents.
• The Grizzlies' winning percentage against the spread at home is .429 (12-16-0). Away, it is .464 (13-14-1).
• Looking at the over/under, Memphis' games have gone over 15 of 28 times at home (53.6%), and 12 of 28 on the road (42.9%).
• The Grizzlies, when moneyline favorites, have won a lower percentage of games at home (8-6) than away (4-1) this season.

Grizzlies Recent Stats

Grizzlies Leaders

• On a per-game basis, Cam Spencer gets the Grizzlies 11.3 points, 2.7 rebounds and 5.6 assists. He also averages 0.7 steals and 0.1 blocked shots.
• Jaylen Wells is putting up 12.3 points, 3.4 rebounds and 1.7 assists per contest. He's sinking 42.1% of his shots from the field and 33.8% from 3-point range, with 1.8 triples per game.
• Walter Clayton Jr. is putting up 7.0 points, 2.0 rebounds and 3.4 assists per contest. He is sinking 39.9% of his shots from the floor and 29.6% from beyond the arc, with 1.0 triples per game.
• GG Jackson is putting up 10.0 points, 3.8 rebounds and 1.3 assists per contest. He is draining 49.6% of his shots from the field and 33.9% from 3-point range, with 1.1 treys per contest.
• Taylor Hendricks gets the Grizzlies 5.6 points, 3.3 rebounds and 0.8 assists per contest while delivering 0.5 steals and 0.3 blocked shots.

FOX Sports created this story using technology provided by Data Skrive and data from Sportradar.

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National Basketball Association

Memphis Grizzlies

Golden State Warriors