Pistons vs. Heat Prediction, Odds, Picks - Jan. 1

The Miami Heat (18-15) aim to build on a three-game winning run when visiting the Detroit Pistons (25-8) on January 1, 2026 at Little Caesars Arena. The Pistons are currently 5-point favorites against the Heat. The matchup has a point total of 239.5.

Take a look at everything you need to know to know about the Pistons-Heat game, from the point spread, moneyline, total Over/Under and expert picks, as well as TV channel and streaming information.

Pistons vs. Heat Game Information, TV Channel & Odds

• When: Thursday, January 1, 2026 at 7 p.m. ET
• Where: Little Caesars Arena in Detroit, Michigan
• TV: FDSSUN and FDSDETX
• Live Boxscore: FOX Sports

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Pistons vs. Heat Prediction

ATS Pick: Pistons (- 5)
O/U Pick: Under (239.5)
Score Prediction: Pistons 120 - Heat 115

Pistons vs. Heat Betting Insights

• The Pistons and their opponent have combined to score over 239.5 points, the current matchup's total, in seven of 33 games this year.
• A total of 16 Heat games this season (out of 33) have gone over 239.5 total points scored.
• The Pistons and Heat average 0.6 more points between them than the total of 239.5 for this matchup.
• The Pistons and the Heat have seen their opponents average a combined 9.3 fewer points per game than the over/under of 239.5 set in this game.
• Detroit has won 19, or 73.1%, of the 26 contests in which it was the favorite this year.
• Miami has come away with nine wins in the 18 contests it has been listed as the underdog this season.
• Detroit has won its lone head-to-head matchup against Miami.
• The Pistons have an advantage against the spread as well (1-0) when squaring off against the Heat.
• The Heat have covered for three consecutive games against the point spread, and were favored in one of those contests.

Pistons Recent Trends

• The Pistons have a 5-4-1 record against the spread while going 7-3 overall over their last 10 contests.
• Detroit has averaged a total of 231.6 combined points in its last 10 games, 7.9 less than this matchup's total of 239.5.
• The Pistons have 18 wins against the spread in 33 games this season.
• So far this season, Detroit has been installed as favorites by a 5-point margin or more 16 times and are 8-7-1 ATS in those matchups.
• Pistons games this year have gone over the total in 18 out of 33 opportunities (54.5%).
• The 119.1 points per game the Pistons record are just 1.6 more points than the Heat give up (117.5).
• Detroit has an 11-5-1 record against the spread and a 16-1 record overall when putting up more than 117.5 points.
• The Pistons are shooting 48.2% from the field this season, 2.6 percentage points higher than the 45.6% the Heat allow to opponents.
• The Pistons sport a better record against the spread in home games (9-6-0) than they do on the road (9-8-1).
• Detroit has hit the over on the over/under in a higher percentage of games at home (60%) than games on the road (50%).
• As a moneyline favorite, the Pistons have won 10 of 11 games when playing at home, good for a .909 winning percentage. They have won nine of 15 games on the road (.600) as a moneyline favorite.

Pistons Recent Stats

Pistons Leaders

• Cade Cunningham puts up 26.5 points, 9.7 assists and 6.2 rebounds per game.
• Jalen Duren averages 18.1 points, 10.8 rebounds and 1.8 assists per game, shooting 63.8% from the floor (sixth in league).
• Ausar Thompson puts up 11.6 points, 2.6 assists and 5.8 boards per contest.
• Isaiah Stewart averages 10.1 points, 1.1 assists and 5.8 rebounds.
• Duncan Robinson puts up 11.6 points, 2.9 boards and 2 assists per game. Defensively he averages 0.8 steals and 0.3 blocks.

Pistons Player Props

Heat Recent Trends

• The Heat are 5-5 against the spread and 4-6 overall over their last 10 contests.
• Miami and its opponents have combined to score an average of 236.2 combined points in its last 10 games, 3.3 less than the 239.5 over/under in this matchup.
• The Heat are 19-13-1 against the spread this year.
• Miami has been underdogs by 5 points or more nine times this year and are 5-3-1 ATS in those matchups.
• Heat games this season have gone over the total in 17 of 33 opportunities (51.5%).
• The Heat score 8.3 more points per game (121) than the Pistons allow their opponents to score (112.7).
• Miami is 16-5 against the spread and 14-7 overall when it scores more than 112.7 points.
• The Heat are shooting 47.4% from the field, 2.9% higher than the 44.5% the Pistons' opponents have shot this season.
• In 2025-26 against the spread, the Heat have a better winning percentage at home (.588, 10-7-0 record) than on the road (.562, 9-6-1).
• Miami's games have finished above the over/under less often at home (eight times out of 17) than on the road (nine of 16) this year.
• In 2025-26 when moneyline favorites, the Heat have a better winning percentage at home (.615, 8-5 record) than on the road (.500, 1-1).

Heat Recent Stats

Heat Leaders

• Kel'el Ware is averaging 12.6 points, 10.6 rebounds and 0.5 assists per game. He's also draining 56.4% of his shots from the field and 47.3% from 3-point range (fourth in league), with 1.3 triples per game.
• On a per-game basis, Jaime Jaquez Jr. gives the Heat 16.4 points, 5.4 rebounds and 4.8 assists. He also averages 0.8 steals and 0.2 blocked shots.
• Norman Powell gives the Heat 23.8 points, 4 rebounds and 2.8 assists per contest while posting 1.3 steals and 0.3 blocked shots.
• Bam Adebayo gives the Heat 17.8 points, 9.5 rebounds and 2.5 assists per contest while posting 1 steal and 0.8 blocked shots.
• Andrew Wiggins gets the Heat 16.4 points, 4.9 rebounds and 3 assists per game while averaging 1.2 steals and 1.1 blocked shots.

Heat Player Props

FOX Sports created this story using technology provided by Data Skrive and data from Sportradar.

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