Pistons vs. Heat Prediction, Odds, Picks - Jan. 1

The Miami Heat (18-15) will look to extend a three-game winning run when hitting the road against the Detroit Pistons (25-8) on January 1, 2026 at Little Caesars Arena. Thursday's matchup between the Pistons and the Heat features the Pistons as 4.5-point favorites. The matchup has an over/under of 236.5.

Take a look at everything you need to know about the Pistons-Heat game, from the point spread, moneyline, total Over/Under and expert picks, as well as TV channel and streaming information.

Pistons vs. Heat Game Information, TV Channel & Odds

• When: Thursday, January 1, 2026 at 7 p.m. ET
• Where: Little Caesars Arena in Detroit, Michigan
• TV: FDSSUN and FDSDETX
• Live Boxscore: FOX Sports

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Pistons vs. Heat Prediction

ATS Pick: Pistons (- 4.5)
O/U Pick: Under (236.5)
Score Prediction: Pistons 120 - Heat 115

Pistons vs. Heat Betting Insights

• Pistons games have gone over 236.5 points scored, their current matchup's point total, 11 times (out of 33) this year.
• This season, 19 of the Heat's 33 total matchups have gone over 236.5 total points scored.
• The two teams average a combined 3.6 more points per game, 240.1, than this matchup's over/under of 236.5 points.
• The Pistons and the Heat have seen their opponents average a combined 6.3 fewer points per game than the point total of 236.5 set for this matchup.
• Detroit has come away with 19 wins in the 26 contests it has been listed as the favorite this season.
• Miami has been chosen as underdogs in 18 games this year and has walked away with the win nine times (50%) in those games.
• In the last one head-to-head meetings, Detroit has a 1-0 record against Miami.
• The Pistons also hold a 1-0 advantage against the spread when playing the Heat.
• The Heat have been favored in one of their past three contests, and covered the spread in all three.

Pistons Recent Trends

• The Pistons have a 5-4-1 record against the spread while finishing 7-3 overall in their last 10 contests.
• Detroit has averaged a total of 231.6 combined points over its last 10 games, 4.9 less than this game's total of 236.5.
• In the Pistons' 33 games this year, they have 18 wins against the spread.
• Detroit has been favored by 4.5 points or more 19 times this season and are 9-9-1 ATS in those contests.
• The Pistons have gone over the point total in 54.5% of their opportunities this year (18 times in 33 games with a set point total).
• The Pistons average 119.1 points per game, just 1.6 more points than the 117.5 the Heat allow.
• When Detroit totals more than 117.5 points, it is 11-5-1 against the spread and 16-1 overall.
• The Pistons are shooting 48.2% from the field this season, 2.6 percentage points higher than the 45.6% the Heat allow to opponents.
• The Pistons have covered the spread in a higher percentage of their home games than away games. They have covered nine times in 15 opportunities at home, and they've covered nine times in 18 opportunities in away games.
• Detroit has hit the over on the total in nine of 15 home games (60%), compared to nine of 18 road games (50%).
• As a moneyline favorite, the Pistons have won a higher percentage of their home games (.909) compared to away games (.600).

Pistons Recent Stats

Pistons Leaders

• Cade Cunningham posts 26.5 points, 6.2 rebounds and 9.7 assists per game, shooting 46.8% from the floor and 33.0% from downtown with 2.0 made treys per contest.
• Jalen Duren averages 18.1 points, 1.8 assists and 10.8 boards per contest.
• Ausar Thompson puts up 11.6 points, 5.8 boards and 2.6 assists per game, shooting 51.1% from the floor.
• Isaiah Stewart puts up 10.1 points, 5.8 boards and 1.1 assists per contest, shooting 52.5% from the field.
• Duncan Robinson puts up 11.6 points, 2.9 boards and 2.0 assists per contest. Defensively he averages 0.8 steals and 0.3 blocks.

Pistons Player Props

Heat Recent Trends

• The Heat have a 5-5 record against the spread while going 4-6 overall over their past 10 contests.
• Miami and its opponents have combined to score an average of 236.2 combined points over its last 10 games, 0.3 less than the 236.5 over/under in this matchup.
• In the Heat's 33 games this season, they have 19 wins against the spread.
• Miami is 5-4-1 ATS when underdogs by 4.5 points or more this year.
• The Heat have eclipsed the over/under 51.5% of the time this year (17 of 33 games with a set point total).
• The Heat score an average of 121.0 points per game, 8.3 more points than the 112.7 the Pistons allow.
• Miami has put together a 16-5 ATS record and a 14-7 overall record in games it scores more than 112.7 points.
• The Heat are shooting 47.4% from the field, 2.9% higher than the 44.5% the Pistons' opponents have shot this season.
• The Heat have been better against the spread at home (10-7-0) than on the road (9-6-1) this year.
• Looking at the over/under, Miami's games have gone over less frequently at home (eight of 17, 47.1%) than away (nine of 16, 56.2%).
• This season the Heat are 8-5 at home when moneyline favorites (.615 winning percentage). Away they are 1-1 (.500).

Heat Recent Stats

Heat Leaders

• On a per-game basis, Kel'el Ware gets the Heat 12.6 points, 10.6 rebounds and 0.5 assists. He also averages 1.0 steal and 1.3 blocked shots.
• Jaime Jaquez Jr. is putting up 16.4 points, 5.4 rebounds and 4.8 assists per game. He's draining 52.6% of his shots from the floor.
• Norman Powell is averaging 23.8 points, 4.0 rebounds and 2.8 assists per contest. He is making 47.9% of his shots from the field and 39.8% from 3-point range, with 2.8 treys per game.
• Bam Adebayo gets the Heat 17.8 points, 9.5 rebounds and 2.5 assists per game while putting up 1.0 steal and 0.8 blocked shots.
• Andrew Wiggins is averaging 16.4 points, 4.9 rebounds and 3.0 assists per game. He is sinking 48.6% of his shots from the floor and 40.7% from 3-point range, with 1.9 treys per contest.

Heat Player Props

FOX Sports created this story using technology provided by Data Skrive and data from Sportradar.

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Detroit Pistons

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