Heat vs. Pacers Prediction, Odds, Picks - Dec. 27

The Indiana Pacers (6-25) will hope to end a three-game road skid when squaring off against the Miami Heat (16-15) on December 27, 2025 at Kaseya Center. Miami is a solid 7-point favorite against Indiana when the Heat hit the court against the Pacers on Saturday. The matchup's over/under is 230.5.

Here's everything you need to know about the Heat-Pacers game, from the point spread, moneyline, total Over/Under and expert picks, as well as TV channel and streaming information.

Heat vs. Pacers Game Information, TV Channel & Odds

• When: Saturday, December 27, 2025 at 8 p.m. ET
• Where: Kaseya Center in Miami, Florida
• TV: FDSSUN, FDSIN, and WPLG
• Live Boxscore: FOX Sports

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Heat vs. Pacers Prediction

ATS Pick: Heat (- 7)
O/U Pick: Over (230.5)
Score Prediction: Heat 123 - Pacers 109

Heat vs. Pacers Betting Insights

• The Heat and their opponent have combined to score over 230.5 points, the current matchup's point total, in 19 of 31 games this year.
• A total of 14 Pacers games this season (out of 31) have gone over 230.5 total points scored.
• The two teams average a combined 1.4 fewer points per game, 229.1, than this matchup's over/under of 230.5 points.
• The Heat and the Pacers have seen their opponents average a combined 5.3 more points per game than the point total of 230.5 set for this game.
• Miami has been chosen as the favorite in 14 games this year and has walked away with the win eight times (57.1%) in those games.
• Indiana has won in four, or 15.4%, of the 26 contests it has been named as the odds-on underdog this year.
• Miami and Indiana have each won two of their last four head-to-head matchups.
• Both the Heat and the Pacers have 2-2 records against the spread in those contests.

Heat Recent Trends

• The Heat have a 4-6 record against the spread while going 2-8 overall over their last 10 contests.
• Miami and its opponents have combined to score an average of 236.6 points over its last 10 games, 6.1 more than the 230.5 over/under in this matchup.
• Against the spread, the Heat are 17-13-1 this year.
• Miami has an against the spread record of 3-3 in its six games when favored by 7 points or more so far this season.
• Heat games this year have gone over the total in 15 out of 31 opportunities (48.4%).
• The 119.5 points per game the Heat record are only 1.1 more points than the Pacers allow (118.4).
• Miami is 12-3 against the spread and 10-5 overall when scoring more than 118.4 points.
• This season, the Heat have a 47.1% shooting percentage from the field, which is 0.8% lower than the 47.9% of shots the Pacers' opponents have hit.
• In home games, the Heat have a worse record against the spread (8-7-0) compared to their ATS record in away games (9-6-1).
• Miami has hit the over on the over/under in six of 15 home games (40%). It has done better in road games, eclipsing the total in nine of 16 matchups (56.2%).
• The Heat have played better as a moneyline favorite at home, sporting a home record of 7-5, compared to going 1-1 in road games.

Heat Recent Stats

Heat Leaders

• Kel'el Ware posts 12.4 points, 10.7 rebounds and 0.5 assists per game. Defensively, he averages 0.9 steals and 1.3 blocks.
• Norman Powell puts up 23.8 points, 4.0 boards and 2.7 assists per game. Defensively, he averages 1.3 steals and 0.2 blocks.
• Jaime Jaquez Jr. posts 15.9 points, 5.5 rebounds and 4.6 assists per game, shooting 51.2% from the floor.
• Bam Adebayo posts 18.0 points, 9.5 boards and 2.4 assists per contest, shooting 46.6% from the field and 31.4% from beyond the arc with 1.4 made treys per game.
• Andrew Wiggins averages 15.9 points, 4.8 boards and 2.9 assists per game. At the other end he averages 1.0 steal and 1.1 blocks.

Heat Player Props

Pacers Recent Trends

• The Pacers are 4-6 against the spread and 2-8 overall in their past 10 games.
• Indiana and its opponents have combined to score an average of 229.3 combined points over its last 10 games, 1.2 less than the 230.5 over/under in this matchup.
• The Pacers have 15 wins against the spread in 31 games this season.
• Indiana has been underdogs by 7 points or more 13 times this season and are 7-6 ATS in those games.
• Pacers games this year have hit the over on 12 of 31 set point totals (38.7%).
• The Pacers score an average of 109.6 points per game, 7.8 fewer points than the 117.4 the Heat allow to opponents.
• Indiana is 4-4 against the spread and 3-5 overall when it scores more than 117.4 points.
• The Pacers have shot at a 43.1% rate from the field this season, 2.1 percentage points fewer than the 45.2% shooting opponents of the Heat have averaged.
• Against the spread, the Pacers have been better at home (9-8-0) than on the road (6-8-0).
• Looking at the over/under, Indiana's games have finished over more frequently at home (nine of 17, 52.9%) than on the road (three of 14, 21.4%).
• This year the Pacers are 2-2 at home when moneyline favorites (.500 winning percentage). Away they are 0-1 (.000).

Pacers Recent Stats

Pacers Leaders

• Pascal Siakam generates 23.1 points, 6.8 rebounds and 3.8 assists per game for the Pacers.
• Andrew Nembhard is putting up 17.4 points, 2.3 rebounds and 6.5 assists per contest. He's sinking 42.6% of his shots from the floor and 36.2% from 3-point range, with 1.8 treys per game.
• Jay Huff gets the Pacers 8.0 points, 4.1 rebounds and 1.3 assists per game while averaging 0.3 steals and 2.4 blocked shots (first in league).
• Bennedict Mathurin gets the Pacers 18.2 points, 5.7 rebounds and 2.2 assists per game while averaging 0.7 steals and 0.2 blocked shots.
• The Pacers are receiving 9.1 points, 4.6 rebounds and 1.9 assists per game from Jarace Walker this year.

Pacers Player Props

FOX Sports created this story using technology provided by Data Skrive and data from Sportradar.

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