Heat vs. Pacers Prediction, Odds, Picks - Dec. 27

The Indiana Pacers (6-25) aim to snap a three-game road losing skid at the Miami Heat (16-15) on December 27, 2025. Miami is a solid 8.5-point favorite against Indiana when the Heat square off with the Pacers on Saturday. The matchup's point total is 230.5.

Check out everything you need to know about the Heat-Pacers game, from the point spread, moneyline, total Over/Under and expert picks, as well as TV channel and streaming information.

Heat vs. Pacers Game Information, TV Channel & Odds

• When: Saturday, December 27, 2025 at 8 p.m. ET
• Where: Kaseya Center in Miami, Florida
• TV: FDSSUN, FDSIN, and WPLG
• Live Boxscore: FOX Sports

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Heat vs. Pacers Prediction

ATS Pick: Heat (- 8.5)
O/U Pick: Over (230.5)
Score Prediction: Heat 123 - Pacers 109

Heat vs. Pacers Betting Insights

• Heat games have gone over 230.5 points scored, their current matchup's over/under, 19 times (out of 31) this season.
• The Pacers have played in 14 games this year (45.2% of opportunities) in which the teams combined to score more than 230.5 points.
• The Heat and the Pacers combine to average 1.4 fewer points per game than the over/under of 230.5 set for this matchup.
• Opponents of the two teams average a combined 5.3 more points per game (235.8) than this game's total of 230.5 points.
• Miami has been the favorite in 14 games this season and has come away with the win eight times (57.1%) in those contests.
• Indiana has been victorious in four, or 15.4%, of the 26 contests it has been chosen as an underdog in this season.
• After the last four head-to-head matchups, Miami and Indiana have a tied 2-2 record.
• The two squads are both 2-2 against the spread in those contests.

Heat Recent Trends

• The Heat have gone 2-8 over their last 10 games, with a 4-6 record against the spread during that span.
• Miami has averaged a total of 236.6 combined points in its last 10 games, 6.1 greater than this game's over/under of 230.5.
• The Heat have played 31 games, with 17 wins against the spread.
• This season, Miami has just one ATS win in three games as a favorite of 8.5 points or more.
• Heat games this year have eclipsed the over/under 15 times in 31 opportunities (48.4%).
• The 119.5 points per game the Heat average are just 1.1 more points than the Pacers give up (118.4).
• Miami is 12-3 against the spread and 10-5 overall when scoring more than 118.4 points.
• The Heat are shooting 47.1% from the field this season, 0.8 percentage points lower than the 47.9% the Pacers allow to opponents.
• The Heat have done a better job covering the spread in road games (9-6-1) than they have in home games (8-7-0).
• Miami has eclipsed the total less consistently when playing at home, hitting the over in six of 15 home matchups (40%). In away games, it has hit the over in nine of 16 games (56.2%).
• The Heat have fared better as a moneyline favorite when playing at home, posting a home record of 7-5, compared to going 1-1 in away games.

Heat Recent Stats

Heat Leaders

• Kel'el Ware puts up 12.4 points, 10.7 boards and 0.5 assists per game, shooting 55.6% from the floor and 47.6% from beyond the arc (third in NBA) with 1.3 made 3-pointers per contest.
• Norman Powell posts 23.8 points, 4.0 rebounds and 2.7 assists per game, shooting 48.1% from the field and 40.0% from downtown with 2.8 made treys per contest.
• Jaime Jaquez Jr. averages 15.9 points, 5.5 boards and 4.6 assists per game. At the other end, he averages 0.8 steals and 0.2 blocks.
• Bam Adebayo puts up 18.0 points, 9.5 rebounds and 2.4 assists per game, shooting 46.6% from the floor and 31.4% from downtown with 1.4 made treys per game.
• Andrew Wiggins averages 15.9 points, 2.9 assists and 4.8 boards.

Pacers Recent Trends

• The Pacers have a 4-6 record against the spread while finishing 2-8 overall in their past 10 contests.
• Indiana has averaged a total of 229.3 combined points over its last 10 games, 1.2 less than this matchup's over/under of 230.5.
• The Pacers have 15 wins against the spread in 31 games this year.
• So far this season, Indiana has been installed as underdogs by an 8.5-point margin or more 10 times and are 6-4 ATS in those matchups.
• Pacers games this season have gone over the total in 12 of 31 opportunities (38.7%).
• The Pacers put up 7.8 fewer points per game (109.6) than the Heat allow their opponents to score (117.4).
• Indiana has put together a 4-4 ATS record and a 3-5 overall record in games it scores more than 117.4 points.
• The Pacers are shooting 43.1% from the field, 2.1% lower than the 45.2% the Heat's opponents have shot this season.
• In 2025-26 against the spread, the Pacers have a better winning percentage at home (.529, 9-8-0 record) than away (.429, 6-8-0).
• Indiana's games have gone above the over/under more frequently at home (nine times out of 17) than away (three of 14) this year.
• The Pacers' winning percentage at home when moneyline favorites is .500 (2-2), and away it is .000 (0-1).

Pacers Recent Stats

Pacers Leaders

• Pascal Siakam is averaging 23.1 points, 6.8 rebounds and 3.8 assists per game. He's also draining 47.1% of his shots from the field and 36.2% from 3-point range, with 1.7 triples per game.
• On a per-game basis, Andrew Nembhard gets the Pacers 17.4 points, 2.3 rebounds and 6.5 assists. He also averages 0.9 steals and 0.1 blocked shots.
• Jay Huff gives the Pacers 8.0 points, 4.1 rebounds and 1.3 assists per contest while posting 0.3 steals and 2.4 blocked shots (first in NBA).
• Bennedict Mathurin is averaging 18.2 points, 5.7 rebounds and 2.2 assists per game. He is sinking 42.0% of his shots from the field and 36.0% from 3-point range, with 2.3 treys per contest.
• Jarace Walker gives the Pacers 9.1 points, 4.6 rebounds and 1.9 assists per contest while posting 0.5 steals and 0.4 blocked shots.

FOX Sports created this story using technology provided by Data Skrive and data from Sportradar.

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