Tigers vs. Red Sox Prediction, Odds, Picks - September 28

Trevor Story and the Boston Red Sox hit the field on Sunday at Fenway Park against Chris Paddack, who will start for the Detroit Tigers. First pitch is set for 3:05 p.m. ET. The Tigers are -111 moneyline favorites in this matchup with the Red Sox (-108). Detroit is favored on the run line (-1.5). The over/under is 9 runs for this matchup (with -118 odds to hit the over and -103 odds to go under).

Here's everything you need from a betting perspective on the Tigers-Red Sox game, regarding the run line, moneyline and total, plus expert picks.

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Red Sox vs. Blue Jays Highlights | MLB on FOX

Check out the best moments between the Boston Red Sox and Toronto Blue Jays.

Tigers vs. Red Sox Game Information & Odds

• When: Sunday, September 28, 2025 at 3:05 p.m. ET
• Where: Fenway Park in Boston, Massachusetts
• How to watch on TV: NESN and FDSDET

Tigers vs. Red Sox Prediction

• Score Prediction: Red Sox 5, Tigers 4
• Total Prediction: Over 9 runs
• Win Probabilities: Tigers 60%, Red Sox 40%

Tigers vs. Red Sox Betting Insights

• This season, the Tigers have won 63 out of the 111 games, or 56.8%, in which they've been favored.
• Detroit has a record of 62-48 in games when oddsmakers favor them by at least -111 on the moneyline.
• The Tigers have a 52.6% chance to win this game based on the implied probability of the moneyline.
• The Red Sox have won in 28, or 49.1%, of the 57 contests they have been named as odds-on underdogs this year.
• This season, Boston has been victorious 26 times in 53 chances when named as an underdog of at least -108 or longer on the moneyline.
• The Red Sox have an implied victory probability of 51.9% according to the moneyline set by oddsmakers for this matchup.

Tigers Recent Betting Performance

• The Tigers were favored on the moneyline six times in the last 10 games, but they lost every matchup.
• In their last 10 outings (all 10 of them had set totals), the Tigers and their opponents combined to go over the run total three times.
• The Tigers have a 1-9-0 record against the spread over their past 10 games.

Tigers Recent Stats

Tigers Player Insights

• Gleyber Torres is hitting .256 with 22 doubles, 16 home runs and 85 walks.
• Including all MLB hitters, Torres ranks 80th in batting average, 21st in on-base percentage, and 120th in slugging.
• Riley Greene's 36 home runs and 111 RBI both lead his team.
• Greene ranks 10th in homers and seventh in RBI in the major leagues.
• Spencer Torkelson has 27 doubles, a triple, 31 home runs and 72 walks while batting .240.
• Zach McKinstry's .261 batting average is a team-high mark.
• McKinstry is riding a five-game hitting streak into this one. During his last five outings he is batting .429 with two doubles, a home run, a walk and an RBI.

Tigers Team Props

Red Sox Recent Betting Performance

• In three games over the last 10 matchups when set as underdogs by sportsbooks, the Red Sox had a record of 2-1.
• The Red Sox and their opponents have combined to hit the over four times in their last 10 games with a total.
• Over their last 10 games, the Red Sox are 6-4-0 against the spread.

Red Sox Recent Stats

Red Sox Player Insights

• Jarren Duran is hitting .257 with 40 doubles, 13 triples, 16 home runs and 60 walks.
• In all of MLB, Duran ranks 123rd in homers and 45th in RBI.
• Story's 25 home runs, 96 runs batted in and .265 batting average are all tops in the lineup.
• Story is currently 48th in home runs and 19th in RBI in the major leagues.
• Alex Bregman has 28 doubles, 18 home runs and 51 walks while hitting .273.
• Ceddanne Rafaela has 33 doubles, four triples, 16 home runs and 27 walks while hitting .247.

Red Sox Team Props

Red Sox vs. Blue Jays Highlights | MLB on FOX

Check out the best moments between the Boston Red Sox and Toronto Blue Jays.

FOX Sports created this story using technology provided by Data Skrive and data from Sportradar.

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