Red Sox vs. Nationals Prediction, Odds, Picks - July 5

Jarren Duran and the Boston Red Sox will look to find success against Mitchell Parker when he starts for the Washington Nationals on Saturday at 4:05 p.m. ET. The Red Sox are -118 moneyline favorites for this matchup against the Nationals (-101). Boston is favored on the run line (-1.5). A 10-run over/under is set for this game.

Here is everything you need from a betting perspective on the Red Sox-Nationals game, regarding the run line, moneyline and total, plus expert picks.

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Red Sox vs. Nationals Highlights | MLB on FOX

Check out the best moments between the Boston Red Sox and Washington Nationals.

Red Sox vs. Nationals Game Information & Odds

• When: Saturday, July 5, 2025 at 4:05 p.m. ET
• Where: Nationals Park in Washington D.C.
• How to watch on TV: MASN and NESN

Red Sox vs. Nationals Prediction

• Score Prediction: Red Sox 6, Nationals 5
• Total Prediction: Under 10 runs
• Win Probabilities: Red Sox 51%, Nationals 49%

Red Sox vs. Nationals Betting Insights

• This season, the Red Sox have won 27 out of the 53 games, or 50.9%, in which they've been favored.
• Boston has entered 44 games this season favored by -118 or more and is 24-20 in those contests.
• The implied probability of a win from the Red Sox, based on the moneyline, is 54.1%.
• The Nationals have been underdogs in 72 games this season and have come away with the win 33 times (45.8%) in those contests.
• This season, Washington has been victorious 29 times in 61 chances when named as an underdog of at least -101 or longer on the moneyline.
• Bookmakers have implied with the moneyline set for this matchup that the Nationals have a 50.2% chance of pulling out a win.

Red Sox Recent Betting Performance

• The Red Sox went 2-4 across the six games they were a moneyline favorite in their last 10 matchups.
• In their last 10 outings (all had set totals), the Red Sox combined with their opponents to hit the over on the total seven times.
• The Red Sox's ATS record is 3-7-0 over their past 10 games.

Red Sox Recent Stats

Red Sox Player Insights

• Duran has 22 doubles, nine triples, six home runs and 26 walks while hitting .255.
• In all of Major League Baseball, Duran ranks 186th in home runs and 72nd in RBI.
• Duran takes a hitting streak of five games into this game. During his last five outings he is batting .300 with two doubles, a triple, a home run, two walks and four RBIs.
• Wilyer Abreu's 17 home runs and .257 batting average both lead his team.
• Abreu ranks 23rd in homers and 40th in RBI on the year.
• Ceddanne Rafaela has 18 doubles, two triples, nine home runs and 15 walks while hitting .253.
• Rafaela has at least one base hit in two straight games. During his last five outings he is hitting .263 with five doubles, a walk and two RBIs.
• Trevor Story has racked up 51 runs batted in to pace his team.
• Story is riding a six-game hitting streak into this one. In his last 10 outings he is hitting .410 with four doubles, three home runs, two walks and 13 RBIs.

Red Sox Team Props

Nationals Recent Betting Performance

• In nine games as underdogs over the last 10 matchups, the Nationals have a record of 4-5.
• When it comes to hitting the over, the Nationals and their opponents are 8-2-0 in their last 10 games with a total.
• The Nationals are 7-3-0 ATS over their last 10 games.

Nationals Recent Stats

Nationals Player Insights

• James Wood leads the lineup with a batting average of .292, while pacing the Nationals in home runs, with 23 and runs batted in with 67.
• In all of the majors, Wood is seventh in homers and seventh in RBI.
• C.J. Abrams is batting .287 with 18 doubles, three triples, 12 home runs and 24 walks.
• Abrams ranks 65th in home runs and 137th in RBI among all hitters in the majors.
• Luis Garcia has 19 doubles, seven home runs and 16 walks while hitting .269.
• Nathaniel Lowe is batting .231 with 14 doubles, a triple, 13 home runs and 32 walks.

Nationals Team Props

Red Sox vs. Nationals Highlights | MLB on FOX

Check out the best moments between the Boston Red Sox and Washington Nationals.

FOX Sports created this story using technology provided by Data Skrive and data from Sportradar.

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