Red Sox vs. Nationals Prediction, Odds, Picks - July 4

Trevor Story and the Boston Red Sox will take on the Washington Nationals and C.J. Abrams on Friday at 11:05 a.m. ET, at Nationals Park. The Nationals are -104 moneyline underdogs for this matchup with the favorite Red Sox (-115). Boston is a 1.5-run favorite (at +144 odds). The over/under is 8 runs for the game (with -115 odds to go over and -105 odds on the under).

Here's everything you need to know from a betting perspective on the Red Sox-Nationals game, regarding the run line, moneyline and total, plus expert picks.

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Red Sox vs. Nationals Game Information & Odds

• When: Friday, July 4, 2025 at 11:05 a.m. ET
• Where: Nationals Park in Washington D.C.
• How to watch on TV: MLB Network, MASN, and NESN

Red Sox vs. Nationals Prediction

• Score Prediction: Nationals 6, Red Sox 5
• Total Prediction: Over 8 runs
• Win Probabilities: Red Sox 50%, Nationals 50%

Red Sox vs. Nationals Betting Insights

• This season, the Red Sox have been favored 52 times and won 26, or 50%, of those games.
• Boston has a record of 25-23, a 52.1% win rate, when favored by -115 or more by oddsmakers this season.
• The implied probability of a win from the Red Sox, based on the moneyline, is 53.5%.
• The Nationals have been underdogs in 71 games this season and have come away with the win 33 times (46.5%) in those contests.
• This season, Washington has been victorious 31 times in 65 chances when named as an underdog of at least -104 or worse on the moneyline.
• The Nationals have an implied victory probability of 51% according to the moneyline set by sportsbooks for this matchup.

Red Sox Recent Betting Performance

• The Red Sox have a 1-4 record from the five games they were favored on the moneyline over their last 10 matchups.
• Over their last 10 outings, the Red Sox and their opponents combined to go over the run total six times (all 10 of the games had set totals).
• The Red Sox have gone 3-7-0 against the spread over their past 10 games.

Red Sox Recent Stats

Red Sox Player Insights

• Jarren Duran has 21 doubles, nine triples, six home runs and 26 walks while batting .253.
• Duran ranks 183rd in homers and 82nd in RBI among all hitters in the majors.
• Duran carries a four-game hitting streak into this matchup. In his last five games he is hitting .222 with a double, a triple, a home run, four walks and an RBI.
• Wilyer Abreu has shown off his power as he paces his team with 17 home runs and 48 RBI, with a team-best .261 batting average.
• Abreu ranks 22nd in home runs and 39th in RBI in the bigs.
• Abreu has three games in a row with at least one hit. During his last five outings he is hitting .350 with a double, four home runs, a walk and 12 RBIs.
• Ceddanne Rafaela is batting .254 with 17 doubles, two triples, nine home runs and 15 walks.
• Story is batting .244 with 11 doubles, 12 home runs and 16 walks.
• Story has recorded at least one hit in five straight games. During his last five outings he is batting .474 with four doubles, a home run, two walks and six RBIs.

Red Sox Team Props

Nationals Recent Betting Performance

• In nine games as underdogs over the last 10 matchups, the Nationals have a record of 4-5.
• In their last 10 games with a total, the Nationals and their opponents are 8-2-0 when it comes to hitting the over.
• The Nationals are 7-3-0 ATS over their last 10 games.

Nationals Recent Stats

Nationals Player Insights

• James Wood paces the Nationals with 23 home runs and 67 runs batted in, while recording a team-high batting average of .294.
• Wood is sixth in homers and sixth in RBI among all hitters in MLB.
• Wood carries a six-game hitting streak into this matchup. During his last 10 games he is batting .417 with two home runs, 11 walks and 10 RBIs.
• Abrams has 18 doubles, three triples, 12 home runs and 23 walks while hitting .286.
• Abrams ranks 59th in home runs and 135th in RBI among all hitters in the big leagues.
• Luis Garcia has 19 doubles, seven home runs and 16 walks while hitting .272.
• Nathaniel Lowe has 14 doubles, a triple, 13 home runs and 31 walks while batting .230.

Nationals Team Props

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FOX Sports created this story using technology provided by Data Skrive and data from Sportradar.

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