Red Sox vs. Guardians Prediction, Odds, Picks - September 3

Kyle Manzardo and the Cleveland Guardians take the field on Wednesday at Fenway Park against Brennan Bernardino, who is the named starter for the Boston Red Sox. First pitch is set for 6:45 p.m. ET for the final game of a three-game series. The Red Sox are -154 moneyline favorites in this matchup with the Guardians (+129). Boston (-1.5) is the favorite on the run line. The total for the matchup is listed at 9 runs.

Check out everything you need from a betting perspective on the Red Sox-Guardians game, regarding the run line, moneyline and total, plus expert picks.

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Guardians vs. Red Sox Highlights | MLB on FOX

Check out the best moments between the Cleveland Guardians and the Boston Red Sox.

Red Sox vs. Guardians Game Information & Odds

• When: Wednesday, September 3, 2025 at 6:45 p.m. ET
• Where: Fenway Park in Boston, Massachusetts
• How to watch on TV: NESN and CLEG

Red Sox vs. Guardians Prediction

• Score Prediction: Red Sox 6, Guardians 4
• Total Prediction: Over 9 runs
• Win Probabilities: Red Sox 57%, Guardians 43%

Red Sox vs. Guardians Betting Insights

• This season, the Red Sox have been favored 86 times and won 52, or 60.5%, of those games.
• Boston has a record of 19-11, a 63.3% win rate, when favored by -154 or more by oddsmakers this season.
• The Red Sox have a 60.6% chance to win this game based on the implied probability of the moneyline.
• The Guardians have been underdogs in 77 games this season and have come away with the win 33 times (42.9%) in those contests.
• Cleveland has a win-loss record of 12-15 when favored by +129 or worse by bookmakers this year.
• The Guardians have an implied victory probability of 43.7% according to the moneyline set for this matchup.

Red Sox Recent Betting Performance

• The Red Sox were the moneyline favorite for nine of their last 10 games, and they went 7-2 in those matchups.
• Over their last 10 outings (all had set totals), the Red Sox combined with their opponents to go over the run total four times.
• The Red Sox have gone 4-6-0 against the spread over their past 10 games.

Red Sox Recent Stats

Red Sox Player Insights

• Jarren Duran is outstanding at both finding his way aboard and doing damage when he's at the plate. Duran leads the Red Sox this season with a .336 OBP, .450 slugging percentage, and 139 base hits.
• Duran's home runs rank him 126th in the majors, and he ranks 32nd in RBI.
• Trevor Story has hit 23 home runs with 88 runs batted in while hitting .261. Those stats all lead his team.
• Story ranks 42nd in homers and 15th in RBI in the majors.
• Story has two games in a row with at least one hit. During his last five outings he is hitting .350 with two doubles, a home run, two walks and four RBIs.
• Ceddanne Rafaela has 29 doubles, three triples, 16 home runs and 22 walks while batting .251.
• Alex Bregman is hitting .285 with 25 doubles, 16 home runs and 39 walks.
• Bregman has recorded at least one hit in three games in a row. In his last five games he is batting .136 with a double and an RBI.

Red Sox Team Props

Guardians Recent Betting Performance

• The Guardians have played as underdogs in eight of their past 10 games and have gone 3-5 in those contests.
• The Guardians and their opponents have combined to hit the over five times in their last 10 games with a total.
• The Guardians have a record of 4-6-0 ATS over their last 10 games.

Guardians Recent Stats

Guardians Player Insights

• Jose Ramirez leads the Guardians with 26 home runs and 68 runs batted in, while recording a team-high batting average of .280.
• Ramirez ranks 29th in homers and 63rd in RBI among all hitters in the majors.
• Steven Kwan has 24 doubles, a triple, 10 home runs and 45 walks while hitting .271.
• Kwan ranks 183rd in home runs and 181st in RBI among all hitters in the majors.
• Manzardo has 14 doubles, two triples, 24 home runs and 41 walks while hitting .233.
• Angel Martinez has 21 doubles, a triple, 10 home runs and 16 walks while batting .225.

Guardians Team Props

Guardians vs. Red Sox Highlights | MLB on FOX

Check out the best moments between the Cleveland Guardians and the Boston Red Sox.

FOX Sports created this story using technology provided by Data Skrive and data from Sportradar.

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Boston Red Sox

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