Red Sox vs. Guardians Prediction, Odds, Picks - September 1

Trevor Story and the Boston Red Sox hit the field on Monday at Fenway Park against Parker Messick, who is starting for the Cleveland Guardians. First pitch will be at 1:35 p.m. ET for the first game of a three-game series. The Red Sox are the favorite in this one, at -149, while the underdog Guardians have +125 odds to upset. Boston is the run-line favorite (-1.5). The total is 8 runs for the matchup (with -115 odds to go over and -106 odds on the under).

Take a look at everything you need to know from a betting perspective on the Red Sox-Guardians game, regarding the run line, moneyline and total, plus expert picks.

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Red Sox vs. Guardians Game Information & Odds

• When: Monday, September 1, 2025 at 1:35 p.m. ET
• Where: Fenway Park in Boston, Massachusetts
• How to watch on TV: NESN and CLEG

Red Sox vs. Guardians Prediction

• Score Prediction: Red Sox 5, Guardians 4
• Total Prediction: Over 8 runs
• Win Probabilities: Red Sox 58%, Guardians 42%

Red Sox vs. Guardians Betting Insights

• The Red Sox have won 50, or 59.5%, of the 84 games they've played as favorites this season.
• This season Boston has won 18 of its 31 games, or 58.1%, when favored by at least -149 on the moneyline.
• The oddsmakers' moneyline implies a 59.8% chance of a victory for the Red Sox.
• The Guardians have been underdogs in 75 games this season and have come away with the win 33 times (44%) in those contests.
• This year, Cleveland has won 15 of 29 games when listed as at least +125 or worse on the moneyline.
• Oddsmakers have implied with the moneyline set for this matchup that the Guardians have a 44.4% chance of pulling out a win.

Red Sox Recent Betting Performance

• The Red Sox played as the moneyline favorite in eight of their last 10 games, and they finished 6-2 in those matchups.
• Over their last 10 outings, the Red Sox and their opponents combined to hit the over three times (all 10 of the games had set totals).
• The Red Sox's ATS record is 4-6-0 over their past 10 games.

Red Sox Recent Stats

Red Sox Player Insights

• Jarren Duran is the Red Sox best hitter so far this season, hitting at a team-leading .260 clip along with 14 homers and 76 RBI.
• Among all batters in MLB, Duran's home run total ranks him 125th, and his RBI tally puts him 33rd.
• Duran takes a hitting streak of four games into this game. During his last five outings he is hitting .333 with a double, a home run, two walks and three RBIs.
• Story has hit 22 home runs with 84 RBI. Both are team-highs.
• Story is 44th in homers and 16th in RBI in the major leagues.
• Ceddanne Rafaela is hitting .250 with 29 doubles, three triples, 15 home runs and 22 walks.
• Alex Bregman is batting .287 with 24 doubles, 16 home runs and 39 walks.

Red Sox Team Props

Guardians Recent Betting Performance

• In eight games over the last 10 matchups when set as underdogs by sportsbooks, the Guardians had a record of 3-5.
• The Guardians and their opponents have combined to hit the over three times in their last 10 games with a total.
• The Guardians have won five of their last 10 games against the spread.

Guardians Recent Stats

Guardians Player Insights

• Jose Ramirez paces the Guardians in home runs (26), runs batted in (68) and has put up a team-high batting average of .283.
• Among all hitters in the majors, Ramirez ranks 25th in homers and 59th in RBI.
• Steven Kwan has 23 doubles, a triple, 10 home runs and 45 walks while batting .270.
• Kwan ranks 181st overall in home runs and 175th in RBI this season.
• Kyle Manzardo is hitting .233 with 14 doubles, two triples, 23 home runs and 41 walks.
• Angel Martinez has 21 doubles, a triple, 10 home runs and 16 walks while hitting .225.

Guardians Team Props

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FOX Sports created this story using technology provided by Data Skrive and data from Sportradar.

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Boston Red Sox

Cleveland Guardians