Pirates vs. Padres Prediction, Odds, Picks - May 4

Luis Arraez and Adam Frazier take the field when the San Diego Padres and Pittsburgh Pirates meet on Sunday at PNC Park. The Pirates are listed as -111 moneyline favorites for this matchup with the Padres (-108). San Diego is favored on the run line (-1.5 with +150 odds). The total is 9 runs for the contest.

Here's everything you need to know from a betting perspective on the Pirates-Padres game, regarding the run line, moneyline and total, plus expert picks.

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Padres vs. Pirates Highlights | MLB on FOX

Check out the highlights as the San Diego Padres took on the Pittsburgh Pirates in this regular season matchup.

Pirates vs. Padres Game Information & Odds

• When: Sunday, May 4, 2025 at 1:35 p.m. ET
• Where: PNC Park in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
• How to watch on TV: SportsNet PT and SDPA

Pirates vs. Padres Prediction

• Score Prediction: Padres 4, Pirates 3
• Total Prediction: Under 9 runs
• Win Probabilities: Pirates 56%, Padres 44%

Pirates vs. Padres Betting Insights

• The Pirates have won five, or 38.5%, of the 13 games they've played as favorites this season.
• Pittsburgh has a record of 5-8, a 38.5% win rate, when favored by -111 or more by oddsmakers this season.
• The moneyline for this contest implies a 52.6% chance of a victory for the Pirates.
• The Padres have won in eight, or 53.3%, of the 15 contests they have been named as odds-on underdogs this year.
• This season, San Diego has come away with a win eight times in 15 chances when named as an underdog of at least -108 or worse on the moneyline.
• The Padres have an implied victory probability of 51.9% according to the moneyline set by sportsbooks for this matchup.

Pirates Recent Betting Performance

• The Pirates were listed as the moneyline favorite by oddsmakers only twice over the last 10 games, and lost both matchups.
• Over their last 10 outings (all 10 of them had set totals), the Pirates and their opponents combined to go over the run total five times.
• The Pirates' ATS record is 4-6-0 over their past 10 games.

Pirates Recent Stats

Pirates Player Insights

• The Pirates' best power option comes in the form of Oneil Cruz and his eight-homer 18-RBI season, both team highs.
• In all of Major League Baseball, Cruz ranks 17th in homers and 44th in RBI.
• Andrew McCutchen is batting .266 with six doubles, three home runs and 13 walks.
• McCutchen is 123rd in homers and 139th in RBI on the season.
• McCutchen has two games in a row with at least one hit. During his last five outings he is batting .222 with two doubles, two walks and two RBI.
• Bryan Reynolds has five doubles, four home runs and 12 walks while batting .237.
• Enmanuel Valdez has three doubles, two triples, two home runs and 11 walks while hitting .218.

Pirates Team Props

Padres Recent Betting Performance

• The Padres have played as underdogs in six of their past 10 games and won three of those contests.
• In their last 10 games with a total, the Padres and their opponents have combined to hit the over four times.
• The Padres have five wins against the spread in their last 10 chances.

Padres Recent Stats

Padres Player Insights

• Fernando Tatis Jr. leads the Padres with eight home runs and 18 runs batted in, while posting a team-best batting average of .342.
• Tatis' home run total puts him 17th in MLB, and he is 44th in RBI.
• Manny Machado is hitting .280 with 10 doubles, three home runs and 12 walks.
• Machado ranks 123rd overall in homers and 96th in RBI this year.
• Arraez has four doubles, a triple, three home runs and five walks while batting .301.
• Xander Bogaerts is hitting .234 with eight doubles, a home run and 14 walks.

Padres Team Props

Padres vs. Pirates Highlights | MLB on FOX

Check out the highlights as the San Diego Padres took on the Pittsburgh Pirates in this regular season matchup.

FOX Sports created this story using technology provided by Data Skrive and data from Sportradar.

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Pittsburgh Pirates

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