Pirates vs. Padres Prediction, Odds, Picks - May 3

Oneil Cruz and the Pittsburgh Pirates head into the second of a three-game series against Fernando Tatis Jr. and the San Diego Padres at PNC Park, Saturday at 4:05 p.m. ET. The Padres are +100 moneyline underdogs for this matchup against the favorite Pirates (-120). Pittsburgh is the favorite on the run line (-1.5). A 9.5-run over/under is set for this game.

Here's everything you need to know from a betting perspective on the Pirates-Padres game, regarding the run line, moneyline and total, plus expert picks.

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Padres vs. Pirates Highlights | MLB on FOX

Check out the best moments between the San Diego Padres and the Pittsburg Pirates.

Pirates vs. Padres Game Information & Odds

• When: Saturday, May 3, 2025 at 4:05 p.m. ET
• Where: PNC Park in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
• How to watch on TV: SportsNet PT and SDPA

Pirates vs. Padres Prediction

• Score Prediction: Padres 5, Pirates 4
• Total Prediction: Under 9.5 runs
• Win Probabilities: Pirates 55%, Padres 45%

Pirates vs. Padres Betting Insights

• The Pirates have been favorites in 12 games this season and won five (41.7%) of those contests.
• Pittsburgh is 3-7 this season when entering a game favored by -120 or more on the moneyline.
• The Pirates have a 54.5% chance to win this game based on the implied probability of the moneyline.
• The Padres have been underdogs in 14 games this season and have come away with the win seven times (50%) in those contests.
• This season, San Diego has been victorious six times in 12 chances when named as an underdog of at least +100 or worse on the moneyline.
• The moneyline set for this matchup implies the Padres have a 50% chance of coming away with a victory in the contest.

Pirates Recent Betting Performance

• Over the last 10 games, the Pirates were listed as the moneyline favorite by bookmakers only one time, a game they lost.
• In their last 10 outings, the Pirates and their opponents combined to go over the run total six times (all 10 games had set totals).
• The Pirates' record against the spread is 5-5-0 over their past 10 games.

Pirates Recent Stats

Pirates Player Insights

• Cruz has a team-high eight home runs and 17 runs batted in.
• In all of the majors, Cruz is 14th in home runs and 48th in RBI.
• Andrew McCutchen is batting .264 with six doubles, three home runs and 12 walks.
• McCutchen is 120th in home runs and 136th in RBI in the majors.
• Bryan Reynolds leads the Pirates with 17 runs batted in.
• Reynolds will look to build on his three-game hitting in this game. In his last five games he is batting .263 with a double, a home run, two walks and three RBI.
• Enmanuel Valdez has three doubles, two triples, two home runs and 11 walks while batting .216.

Pirates Team Props

Padres Recent Betting Performance

• In six games over the last 10 matchups when set as underdogs by sportsbooks, the Padres had a record of 3-3.
• In their last 10 games with a total, the Padres and their opponents have combined to hit the over four times.
• The Padres have four wins against the spread in their last 10 chances.

Padres Recent Stats

Padres Player Insights

• Tatis leads the Padres with eight home runs and 18 runs batted in, while posting a team-best batting average of .345.
• Tatis is 14th in home runs and 38th in RBI among all hitters in the majors.
• Manny Machado has 10 doubles, two home runs and 11 walks while batting .278.
• Machado is 168th in home runs and 114th in RBI among all MLB hitters this season.
• Luis Arraez is batting .313 with four doubles, a triple, three home runs and five walks.
• Xander Bogaerts is hitting .243 with eight doubles, a home run and 14 walks.

Padres Team Props

Padres vs. Pirates Highlights | MLB on FOX

Check out the best moments between the San Diego Padres and the Pittsburg Pirates.

FOX Sports created this story using technology provided by Data Skrive and data from Sportradar.

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Pittsburgh Pirates

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