Phillies vs. Twins Prediction, Odds, Picks - September 26

A couple of hot hitters, Kyle Schwarber and Byron Buxton, will try to keep it going when the Philadelphia Phillies play the Minnesota Twins on Friday at 6:45 p.m. ET, at Citizens Bank Park. The Phillies are listed as -153 moneyline favorites in this matchup with the Twins (+128). Philadelphia is favored on the run line (-1.5). The over/under is 8.5 runs for this game.

Take a look at everything you need to know from a betting perspective on the Phillies-Twins game, regarding the run line, moneyline and total, plus expert picks.

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Phillies vs. Twins Game Information & Odds

• When: Friday, September 26, 2025 at 6:45 p.m. ET
• Where: Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
• How to watch on TV: NBCS-PH and MNNT

Phillies vs. Twins Prediction

• Score Prediction: Phillies 6, Twins 4
• Total Prediction: Over 8.5 runs
• Win Probabilities: Phillies 58%, Twins 42%

Phillies vs. Twins Betting Insights

• This season, the Phillies have won 78 out of the 126 games, or 61.9%, in which they've been favored.
• Philadelphia has a record of 53-23, a 69.7% win rate, when favored by -153 or more by oddsmakers this season.
• Bookmakers have implied with the moneyline set for this matchup that the Phillies have a 60.5% chance to win.
• The Twins have been chosen as underdogs in 68 games this year and have walked away with the win 27 times (39.7%) in those games.
• This season, Minnesota has been victorious seven times in 22 chances when named as an underdog of at least +128 or longer on the moneyline.
• The Twins have an implied victory probability of 43.9% according to the moneyline set by oddsmakers for this matchup.

Phillies Recent Betting Performance

• The Phillies have a 2-3 record across the five games they were a moneyline favorite in their last 10 matchups.
• Over their last 10 matchups (all 10 of them had set totals), the Phillies and their opponents combined to go over the run total seven times.
• The Phillies are 3-7-0 against the spread over their past 10 games.

Phillies Recent Stats

Phillies Player Insights

• Schwarber leads the Phillies in home runs (56) and runs batted in (132).
• Of all hitters in the majors, Schwarber ranks second in homers and first in RBI.
• Bryce Harper has 32 doubles, 27 home runs and 68 walks while batting .263.
• Harper is 37th in homers and 66th in RBI in the bigs.
• Harper heads into this game looking for his third game in a row with a hit. In his last five games he is hitting .211 with three walks.
• Bryson Stott is hitting .257 with 22 doubles, three triples, 13 home runs and 54 walks.
• Stott is on a two-game hitting streak entering this contest. During his last five outings he is batting .333 with two doubles, a home run, two walks and an RBI.
• Nick Castellanos is batting .253 with 27 doubles, two triples, 17 home runs and 31 walks.

Phillies Team Props

Twins Recent Betting Performance

• The Twins have played as underdogs in nine of their past 10 games and won four of those contests.
• In their last 10 games with a total, the Twins and their opponents are 2-7-1 when it comes to hitting the over.
• The Twins have won five of their last 10 games against the spread.

Twins Recent Stats

Twins Player Insights

• Buxton leads the squad with a batting average of .265, and leads the Twins in home runs, with 34 and runs batted in with 82.
• Among all hitters in the majors, Buxton is 13th in home runs and 48th in RBI.
• Trevor Larnach is batting .251 with 23 doubles, a triple, 17 home runs and 53 walks.
• Larnach is 111th among all batters in MLB in home runs, and 126th in RBI.
• Brooks Lee has 15 doubles, a triple, 16 home runs and 30 walks while batting .237.
• Ryan Jeffers is hitting .259 with 24 doubles, nine home runs and 49 walks.

Twins Team Props

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FOX Sports created this story using technology provided by Data Skrive and data from Sportradar.

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