Padres vs. Marlins Prediction, Odds, Picks - May 26

Randy Vasquez will start for the San Diego Padres on Monday at PETCO Park against Kyle Stowers and the Miami Marlins. First pitch is at 8:40 p.m. ET for the first game of a three-game series. Bookmakers list the Padres as -156 moneyline favorites, while giving the underdog Marlins +131 moneyline odds to win. San Diego (-1.5) is favored on the run line. A 7.5-run over/under has been set in the matchup.

Check out everything you need to know from a betting perspective on the Padres-Marlins game, regarding the run line, moneyline and total, plus expert picks.

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Padres vs. Marlins Game Information & Odds

• When: Monday, May 26, 2025 at 8:40 p.m. ET
• Where: PETCO Park in San Diego, California
• How to watch on TV: SDPA and FDSFL

Padres vs. Marlins Prediction

• Score Prediction: Padres 5, Marlins 4
• Total Prediction: Over 7.5 runs
• Win Probabilities: Padres 57%, Marlins 43%

Padres vs. Marlins Betting Insights

• The Padres have won 17, or 60.7%, of the 28 games they've played as favorites this season.
• San Diego is 10-4 this season when entering a game favored by -156 or more on the moneyline.
• The Padres have a 60.9% chance to win this game based on the implied probability of the moneyline.
• The Marlins have been chosen as underdogs in 45 games this year and have walked away with the win 17 times (37.8%) in those games.
• Miami has a win-loss record of 9-17 when favored by +131 or worse by oddsmakers this year.
• The Marlins have an implied victory probability of 43.3% according to the moneyline set by sportsbooks for this matchup.

Padres Recent Betting Performance

• The Padres have a 1-5 record from the six games they were favored on the moneyline over their last 10 matchups.
• In their last 10 outings (all 10 of them had set totals), the Padres and their opponents combined to go over the run total two times.
• The Padres have gone 3-7-0 against the spread over their past 10 games.

Padres Recent Stats

Padres Player Insights

• Fernando Tatis Jr. has hit a team-best 12 home runs.
• Tatis is 13th in home runs and 61st in RBI among all batters in the majors.
• Manny Machado's .321 batting average is a team-high mark.
• Machado ranks 126th in homers and 97th in RBI in the bigs.
• Machado carries a three-game streak with at least one hit into this matchup. In his last five games he is batting .421 with two doubles, two home runs, two walks and three RBIs.
• Luis Arraez is batting .284 with eight doubles, three triples, three home runs and nine walks.
• Gavin Sheets has capitalized on opportunities as he leads his team with 31 RBI.

Padres Team Props

Marlins Recent Betting Performance

• The Marlins have played as underdogs in 10 of their past 10 games and won six of those contests.
• In their last 10 games with a total, the Marlins and their opponents have combined to hit the over four times.
• The Marlins are 7-3-0 ATS over their last 10 games.

Marlins Recent Stats

Marlins Player Insights

• Stowers paces the Marlins with 10 home runs and 31 runs batted in, while posting a team-high batting average of .309.
• Among all batters in the big leagues, Stowers' home run total ranks 25th and his RBI tally ranks 25th.
• Eric Wagaman has 10 doubles, a triple, four home runs and 13 walks while batting .253.
• Wagaman is currently 154th in homers and 174th in RBI in the big leagues.
• Otto Lopez has five doubles, three home runs and 14 walks while batting .221.
• Agustin Ramirez is batting .243 with 10 doubles, six home runs and 10 walks.

Marlins Team Props

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Miami Marlins' OF Derek Hill made a RIDICULOUS diving grab vs. the New York Mets and robbed Tyrone Taylor of extra bases.

FOX Sports created this story using technology provided by Data Skrive and data from Sportradar.

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San Diego Padres

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