Orioles vs. Pirates Prediction, Odds, Picks - September 11

A couple of hot hitters, Gunnar Henderson and Bryan Reynolds, will try to keep it going when the Baltimore Orioles play the Pittsburgh Pirates on Thursday at 1:05 p.m. ET, at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. The Pirates are +102 moneyline underdogs for this matchup against the favored Orioles (-122). Pittsburgh (-1.5) is the favorite on the run line. The over/under is 8.5 runs for this game.

Check out everything you need from a betting perspective on the Orioles-Pirates game, regarding the run line, moneyline and total, plus expert picks.

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Pirates vs. Orioles Highlights | MLB on FOX

Enjoy the best moments between the Pittsburgh Pirates and the Baltimore Orioles.

Orioles vs. Pirates Game Information & Odds

• When: Thursday, September 11, 2025 at 1:05 p.m. ET
• Where: Oriole Park at Camden Yards in Baltimore, Maryland
• How to watch on TV: MASN and SportsNet PT

Orioles vs. Pirates Prediction

• Score Prediction: Orioles 6, Pirates 5
• Total Prediction: Over 8.5 runs
• Win Probabilities: Orioles 52%, Pirates 48%

Orioles vs. Pirates Betting Insights

• This season, the Orioles have been favored 63 times and won 30, or 47.6%, of those games.
• Baltimore has a record of 23-21 in games when oddsmakers favor them by at least -122 on the moneyline.
• The implied probability of a win from the Orioles, based on the moneyline, is 55%.
• The Pirates have been underdogs in 103 games this season and have come away with the win 43 times (41.7%) in those contests.
• This year, Pittsburgh has won 37 of 91 games when listed as at least +102 or worse on the moneyline.
• The moneyline set for this matchup implies the Pirates have a 49.5% chance of coming away with a victory in the contest.

Orioles Recent Betting Performance

• Over the last 10 games, the Orioles were named the moneyline favorite by oddsmakers just two times, and they won both games.
• Over their last 10 matchups (all had set totals), the Orioles combined with their opponents to go over the run total three times.
• The Orioles' record against the spread is 7-3-0 over their past 10 games.

Orioles Recent Stats

Orioles Player Insights

• Henderson comes into Thursday's game as the Orioles top run producer, delivering 61 RBI while launching 16 home runs in 2025. His .270 average is also best on the squad.
• In all of Major League Baseball, Henderson ranks 110th in homers and 100th in RBI.
• Jackson Holliday has hit 17 home runs to lead his team.
• Holliday ranks 99th in homers and 126th in RBI among all major league hitters this season.
• Holliday carries a three-game streak with at least one hit into this contest. During his last five outings he is hitting .353 with two home runs, five walks and three RBIs.
• Ryan Mountcastle is batting .259 with 18 doubles, five home runs and 14 walks.
• Mountcastle has at least one base hit in two games in a row. In his last five games he is batting .158 with a double, a walk and an RBI.
• Colton Cowser is hitting .207 with 12 doubles, 13 home runs and 20 walks.

Orioles Team Props

Pirates Recent Betting Performance

• The Pirates have played as underdogs in nine of their past 10 games and won four of those contests.
• In their last 10 games with a total, the Pirates and their opponents have combined to hit the over four times.
• The Pirates have won five of their last 10 games against the spread.

Pirates Recent Stats

Pirates Player Insights

• Reynolds has recorded a team-best batting average of .244 and leads the Pirates in runs batted in with a mark of 70.
• Among all hitters in MLB, Reynolds' home run total is 126th and his RBI tally ranks 65th.
• Andrew McCutchen is hitting .243 with 22 doubles, 13 home runs and 61 walks.
• McCutchen is currently 150th in homers and 136th in RBI in the major leagues.
• Oneil Cruz has 19 home runs, tops in the clubhouse.
• Tommy Pham is batting .258 with 17 doubles, a triple, nine home runs and 41 walks.

Pirates Team Props

Pirates vs. Orioles Highlights | MLB on FOX

Enjoy the best moments between the Pittsburgh Pirates and the Baltimore Orioles.

FOX Sports created this story using technology provided by Data Skrive and data from Sportradar.

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