Mets vs. Pirates Prediction, Odds, Picks - June 28

The Pittsburgh Pirates will look to Nick Gonzales for continued offensive production when they take on Pete Alonso and the New York Mets on Saturday, in the second game of a three-game series at PNC Park. The Pirates are listed as +121 moneyline underdogs for this matchup with the Mets (-144). New York is the run-line favorite (-1.5). A 9.5-run total has been set for the matchup.

Here's everything you need from a betting perspective on the Mets-Pirates game, regarding the run line, moneyline and total, plus expert picks.

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Mets vs. Pirates Highlights | MLB on FOX

Check out the best highlights between the New York Mets and Pittsburgh Pirates.

Mets vs. Pirates Game Information & Odds

• When: Saturday, June 28, 2025 at 4:05 p.m. ET
• Where: PNC Park in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
• How to watch on TV: SportsNet PT and SNY

Mets vs. Pirates Prediction

• Score Prediction: Mets 5, Pirates 4
• Total Prediction: Under 9.5 runs
• Win Probabilities: Mets 50%, Pirates 50%

Mets vs. Pirates Betting Insights

• This season, the Mets have won 39 out of the 58 games, or 67.2%, in which they've been favored.
• New York has a record of 23-12, a 65.7% win rate, when favored by -144 or more by oddsmakers this season.
• Sportsbooks have implied with the moneyline set for this matchup that the Mets have a 59% chance to win.
• The Pirates have been chosen as underdogs in 57 games this year and have walked away with the win 22 times (38.6%) in those games.
• This season, Pittsburgh has been victorious 11 times in 38 chances when named as an underdog of at least +121 or worse on the moneyline.
• The moneyline set for this matchup implies the Pirates have a 45.2% chance of coming away with a victory in the contest.

Mets Recent Betting Performance

• The Mets were the moneyline favorite for four of their last 10 games, and they finished 3-1 in those matchups.
• Over their last 10 matchups -- all had a set run total -- the Mets and their opponents combined to hit the over on the total five times.
• The Mets have gone 4-6-0 against the spread over their past 10 games.

Mets Recent Stats

Mets Player Insights

• Juan Soto's 20 home runs in 2025 are the most on the Mets. He's also knocked in 46 runs while hitting .259.
• In all of the majors, Soto is ninth in home runs and 33rd in RBI.
• Soto carries a three-game hitting streak into this matchup. During his last five outings he is hitting .333 with four home runs, four walks and five RBIs.
• Alonso's 65 RBI and .292 batting average both lead his team.
• Alonso ranks 13th in home runs and fourth in RBI among all hitters in MLB.
• Alonso enters this game looking for his fifth game in a row with a hit. During his last five outings he is batting .316 with a double and an RBI.
• Francisco Lindor has 14 doubles, 16 home runs and 28 walks while hitting .262.
• Brandon Nimmo has 14 doubles, 15 home runs and 25 walks while hitting .252.
• Nimmo brings a three-game streak with at least one hit into this one. During his last five outings he is hitting .222 with a walk and an RBI.

Mets Team Props

Pirates Recent Betting Performance

• The Pirates have played as underdogs in six of their past 10 games and have gone 2-4 in those contests.
• The Pirates and their opponents have combined to hit the over eight times in their last 10 games with a total.
• The Pirates have five wins against the spread in their last 10 chances.

Pirates Recent Stats

Pirates Player Insights

• Oneil Cruz leads the Pirates with 13 home runs.
• Among all batters in the majors, Cruz's home run total ranks 39th and his RBI tally is 122nd.
• Bryan Reynolds has made the most of his opportunities as he paces his team with 42 RBI.
• Among all MLB batters, Reynolds is 101st in homers and 47th in RBI.
• Andrew McCutchen leads the Pirates with a team-high batting average of .262.
• Isiah Kiner-Falefa is hitting .277 with 10 doubles, two triples, a home run and 12 walks.

Pirates Team Props

Mets vs. Pirates Highlights | MLB on FOX

Check out the best highlights between the New York Mets and Pittsburgh Pirates.

FOX Sports created this story using technology provided by Data Skrive and data from Sportradar.

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