Mets vs. Cubs Prediction, Odds, Picks - May 11

Juan Soto and the New York Mets will try to beat Matthew Boyd, the Chicago Cubs' starting pitcher, on Sunday at 12:05 p.m. ET. Oddsmakers list the Mets as -127 moneyline favorites, while giving the underdog Cubs +107 moneyline odds. New York is the favorite on the run line (-1.5). An 8-run over/under has been set in the game.

Take a look at everything you need to know from a betting perspective on the Mets-Cubs game, regarding the run line, moneyline and total, plus expert picks.

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Brett Baty cranks a three-run homer to bring Mets within striking distance of Cubs

Brett Baty cranked a three-run homer that brought the New York Mets within striking distance of the Chicago Cubs.

Mets vs. Cubs Game Information & Odds

• When: Sunday, May 11, 2025 at 12:05 p.m. ET
• Where: Citi Field in Queens, New York
• How to watch on TV: Roku

Mets vs. Cubs Prediction

• Score Prediction: Mets 5, Cubs 4
• Total Prediction: Under 8 runs
• Win Probabilities: Mets 52%, Cubs 48%

Mets vs. Cubs Betting Insights

• This season, the Mets have been favored 30 times and won 20, or 66.7%, of those games.
• New York has a record of 18-8, a 69.2% win rate, when favored by -127 or more by bookmakers this season.
• The moneyline for this contest implies a 55.9% chance of a victory for the Mets.
• The Cubs have been chosen as underdogs in 18 games this year and have walked away with the win nine times (50%) in those games.
• Chicago has a mark of 3-6 in contests where sportsbooks favor it by +107 or worse on the moneyline.
• Oddsmakers have implied with the moneyline set for this matchup that the Cubs have a 48.3% chance of pulling out a win.

Mets Recent Betting Performance

• The Mets have a 3-4 record from the seven games they were moneyline favorites over their last 10 matchups.
• In their last 10 matchups (all had set totals), the Mets combined with their opponents to hit the over on the run total five times.
• The Mets' ATS record is 4-6-0 over their past 10 games.

Mets Recent Stats

Mets Player Insights

• Pete Alonso's nine home runs and 34 RBI both lead the Mets, on top of his team-high .322 average.
• Including all MLB hitters, Alonso ranks 10th in batting average, second in on-base percentage, and third in slugging.
• Alonso carries a two-game hitting streak into this matchup. In his last five games he is hitting .190 with a double, a home run, a walk and three RBIs.
• Juan Soto is batting .259 with nine doubles, eight home runs and 30 walks.
• Soto is 27th in home runs and 71st in RBI among all batters in MLB.
• Francisco Lindor is hitting .296 with seven doubles, eight home runs and 13 walks.
• Lindor is on a three-game hitting streak entering this contest. During his last five outings he is batting .333 with two doubles, two home runs, two walks and six RBIs.
• Brandon Nimmo has six doubles, seven home runs and 13 walks while batting .215.
• Nimmo brings a three-game streak with at least one hit into this one. During his last five outings he is hitting .176 with a double and three walks.

Mets Team Props

Cubs Recent Betting Performance

• In three games over the last 10 matchups when set as underdogs by oddsmakers, the Cubs had a record of 2-1.
• The Cubs and their opponents have combined to hit the over six times in their last 10 games with a total.
• The Cubs have a record of 5-5-0 ATS over their last 10 games.

Cubs Recent Stats

Cubs Player Insights

• Kyle Tucker has posted a team-leading 10 home runs and has driven in 32 runs.
• Tucker is seventh in home runs and fifth in RBI among all hitters in the big leagues.
• Pete Crow-Armstrong is batting .265 with 11 doubles, a triple, nine home runs and eight walks.
• Crow-Armstrong ranks 12th among all batters in the big leagues in home runs, and 17th in RBI.
• Ian Happ is hitting .269 with nine doubles, three home runs and 24 walks.
• Carson Kelly is batting .333 with two doubles, a triple, eight home runs and 18 walks.

Cubs Team Props

Brett Baty cranks a three-run homer to bring Mets within striking distance of Cubs

Brett Baty cranked a three-run homer that brought the New York Mets within striking distance of the Chicago Cubs.

FOX Sports created this story using technology provided by Data Skrive and data from Sportradar.

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