Marlins vs. Mets Prediction, Odds, Picks - September 28

Updated Sep. 28, 2023 7:07 p.m. ET

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Jesus Luzardo starts for the Miami Marlins on Thursday against Francisco Lindor and the New York Mets. First pitch is at 7:10 PM ET at Citi Field. The favored Marlins have -135 moneyline odds to win against the underdog Mets, who are listed at +115. Miami is a 1.5-run favorite (at +128 odds). A 7.5-run total has been set for this contest.

The matchup on the mound for this contest is set with the Miami Marlins looking to Luzardo (10-9), and David Peterson (3-8) answering the bell for the New York Mets.

Here is everything you need to know from a betting perspective on the Marlins-Mets game, from the point spread, moneyline, Over/Under and expert picks.

Marlins vs. Mets Game Information & Odds

• When: Thursday, September 28, 2023 at 7:10 PM ET
• Where: Citi Field in Queens, New York
• How to Watch on TV: SNY

Marlins vs. Mets Prediction

• Score Prediction: Mets 6, Marlins 5
• Total Prediction: Over 7.5 runs
• Win Probabilities: Marlins 53%, Mets 47%

Marlins vs. Mets Betting Insights

• This season, the Marlins have won 41 out of the 72 games, or 56.9%, in which they've been favored.
• Miami is 31-13 this season when entering a game favored by -135 or more on the moneyline.
• Sportsbooks have implied with the moneyline set for this matchup that the Marlins have a 57.4% chance to win.
• The Mets have been victorious in 22, or 32.4%, of the 68 contests they have been chosen as underdogs in this season.
• This season, New York has come away with a win 10 times in 38 chances when named as an underdog of at least +115 or longer on the moneyline.
• The Mets have an implied victory probability of 46.5% according to the moneyline set for this matchup.

Marlins Recent Betting Performance

• The Marlins were the moneyline favorite for four of their last 10 games, and went 1-3 in those matchups.
• Over their last 10 outings (all 10 of them had set totals), the Marlins and their opponents combined to go over the run total six times.
• The Marlins are 5-5-0 against the spread over their past 10 games.

Marlins Recent Stats

Marlins Player Insights

• Luis Arraez leads the Marlins with a team-best batting average of .353.
• Of all hitters in baseball, Arraez is 215th in homers and 87th in RBI.
• Jorge Soler has put his power on display as he paces his team with 36 home runs.
• Soler ranks 12th in home runs and 72nd in RBI among all major league hitters this season.
• Jake Burger has a team-best 79 runs batted in.
• Josh Bell is batting .247 with 26 doubles, 22 home runs and 63 walks.

Marlins Team Props

Learn more about this Marlins vs. Mets matchup on Fox Sports.

Mets Recent Betting Performance

• The Mets have played as underdogs in eight of their past 10 games and won three of those contests.
• The Mets and their opponents have combined to hit the over five times in their last 10 games with a total.
• The Mets have won seven of their last 10 games against the spread.

Mets Recent Stats

Mets Player Insights

• Lindor has 33 doubles, two triples, 30 home runs and 64 walks while hitting .254.
• Lindor's home run total places him 24th in the majors, and he is 22nd in RBI.
• Pete Alonso been a consistent power bat this season, as he paces his team with 46 home runs and 117 runs batted in.
• Alonso is second overall in home runs and second in RBI this season.
• Brandon Nimmo has accumulated a team-best batting average of .273.
• Jeff McNeil is hitting .270 with 25 doubles, four triples, 10 home runs and 39 walks.

Mets Team Props

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MLB - Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets - 09/28/2023