Texas vs. Florida Prediction, Odds, Picks - October 4, 2025

Updated Oct. 4, 2025 3:05 p.m. ET

Data Skrive

A pair of the nation's stingiest defenses square off when the No. 9 Texas Longhorns (3-1) take college football's second-ranked scoring defense into a matchup with the Florida Gators (1-3), who have the No. 24 scoring defense, on Saturday, October 4, 2025. The Longhorns are 5.5-point favorites. The over/under for the game is set at 42.5.

The Longhorns beat the Sam Houston Bearkats, 55-0, in their most recent game. The Gators' last contest was against the Miami (FL) Hurricanes, and they lost by a score of 26-7.

Keep up with college football all season on FOX Sports.

Texas vs. Florida Game Information & Odds

When: Saturday, October 4, 2025 at 3:30 p.m. ET
Location: Ben Hill Griffin Stadium in Gainesville, Florida
TV: ESPN
Live Box Score on FOX Sports

Texas vs Florida Betting Information updated as of October 4, 2025, 2:45 p.m. ET.
Favorite	Spread (Odds)	Favorite Moneyline	Underdog Moneyline	Total	Over Moneyline	Under Moneyline
Texas	-5.5 (-107)	-210	+175	42.5	-110	-110

Texas vs. Florida Prediction

Pick ATS: Florida (+5.5)
Pick OU: Under (42.5)
Prediction: Texas 19, Florida 17

Predictions are made by the Data Skrive betting model.

Learn more about the Texas Longhorns vs. the Florida Gators game on FOX Sports!

Texas vs. Florida Betting Insights

Based on the spread and over/under, the implied score for the tilt is Longhorns 24, Gators 18.
The Longhorns have a 67.7% chance to win this meeting based on the moneyline's implied probability. The Gators hold a 36.4% implied probability.
Texas has a record of 1-3-0 against the spread this season.
Florida has won one game against the spread this season.

Texas vs. Florida: 2025 Stats Comparison

	Texas	Florida
Off. Points per Game (Rank)	31.8 (79)	22 (114)
Def. Points per Game (Rank)	7.8 (2)	16 (18)
Turnovers Allowed (Rank)	4 (25)	6 (74)
Turnovers Forced (Rank)	7 (38)	4 (93)

Texas 2025 Key Players

Name	Position	Stats
Arch Manning	QB	888 YDS (61.3%) / 9 TD / 3 INT 123 RUSH YDS / 5 RUSH TD / 30.8 RUSH YPG
Parker Livingstone	WR	11 REC / 232 YDS / 3 TD / 58 YPG
Ryan Wingo	WR	13 REC / 190 YDS / 3 TD / 47.5 YPG
Jack Endries	TE	7 REC / 106 YDS / 2 TD / 35.3 YPG
Jelani McDonald	DB	12 TKL / 0 TFL / 2 INT / 2 PD
Ty'Anthony Smith	LB	11 TKL / 1 TFL
Liona Lefau	LB	20 TKL / 2 TFL
Trey Moore	LB	10 TKL / 1 TFL / 1 SACK

Florida 2025 Key Players

Name	Position	Stats
Jadan Baugh	RB	289 YDS / 2 TD / 72.3 YPG / 5.9 YPC 10 REC / 68 REC YDS / 0 REC TD / 34 REC YPG
DJ Lagway	QB	690 YDS (67.5%) / 5 TD / 6 INT
Vernell Brown III	WR	18 REC / 219 YDS / 0 TD / 54.8 YPG
Eugene Wilson III	WR	15 REC / 73 YDS / 2 TD / 18.3 YPG
Myles Graham	LB	23 TKL / 2 TFL
Bryce Thornton	DB	13 TKL / 1 TFL
Jordan Castell	DB	16 TKL / 0 TFL
Brendan Bett	DL	17 TKL / 1 TFL