Texas State vs. Arkansas State Prediction, Odds, Picks - October 4, 2025

Updated Oct. 4, 2025 3:04 p.m. ET

FOX Sports

Oddsmakers heavily favor the Texas State Bobcats (3-1) when they visit the Arkansas State Red Wolves (1-4) on Saturday, October 4, 2025 in a matchup between Sun Belt rivals at Centennial Bank Stadium. Texas State is favored by 13.5 points. The over/under for the contest is set at 64.5.

In their last action, the Bobcats won against the Nicholls State Colonels, 35-3. The Red Wolves lost to the Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks, 28-16, in their most recent game.

Keep up with college football all season on FOX Sports.

Texas State vs. Arkansas State Game Information & Odds

When: Saturday, October 4, 2025 at 4 p.m. ET
Location: Centennial Bank Stadium in Jonesboro, Arkansas
TV: ESPNU
Live Box Score on FOX Sports

Texas State vs Arkansas State Betting Information updated as of October 4, 2025, 2:45 p.m. ET.
Favorite	Spread (Odds)	Favorite Moneyline	Underdog Moneyline	Total	Over Moneyline	Under Moneyline
Texas State	-13.5 (-110)	-490	+371	64.5	-108	-118

Texas State vs. Arkansas State Prediction

Pick ATS: Texas State (-13.5)
Pick OU: Under (64.5)
Prediction: Texas State 37, Arkansas State 23

Predictions are made by the Data Skrive betting model.

Learn more about the Texas State Bobcats vs. the Arkansas State Red Wolves game on FOX Sports!

Texas State vs. Arkansas State Betting Insights

Per the spread and over/under, the implied score for the game is Bobcats 39, Red Wolves 26.
The Bobcats have an 83.1% chance to win this contest per the moneyline's implied probability. The Red Wolves hold a 21.2% implied probability.
Texas State has covered twice in four games with a spread this season.
Arkansas State has a record of 2-3-0 against the spread this season.

Texas State vs. Arkansas State: Head-to-Head

In their last four head-to-head bouts, Texas State has taken down Arkansas State three times.
The Bobcats and the Red Wolves have matched up evenly over their last four contests, sporting an even 2-2 record against the spread. In those four games, the two teams have gone over the total on one occasion.
In their last four head-to-head matchups, Arkansas State has compiled 121 points against Texas State, while allowing only 112 points.

Texas State vs. Arkansas State: 2025 Stats Comparison

	Texas State	Arkansas State
Off. Points per Game (Rank)	36.3 (56)	21.8 (96)
Def. Points per Game (Rank)	25 (56)	32 (125)
Turnovers Allowed (Rank)	4 (25)	7 (99)
Turnovers Forced (Rank)	1 (133)	8 (24)

Texas State 2025 Key Players

Name	Position	Stats
Brad Jackson	QB	864 YDS (66.7%) / 6 TD / 1 INT 128 RUSH YDS / 5 RUSH TD / 32 RUSH YPG
Beau Sparks	WR	28 REC / 370 YDS / 5 TD / 92.5 YPG
Lincoln Pare	RB	363 YDS / 3 TD / 90.8 YPG / 6 YPC 9 REC / 74 REC YDS / 0 REC TD / 18.5 REC YPG
Jaylen Jenkins	RB	158 YDS / 2 TD / 39.5 YPG / 6.3 YPC
Kalil Alexander	DL	16 TKL / 3 TFL / 2 SACK
Treylin Payne	LB	24 TKL / 1 TFL / 1 SACK
Ryan Nolan	DB	21 TKL / 0 TFL
Kenard Snyder	DL	13 TKL / 2 TFL / 1 SACK

Arkansas State 2025 Key Players

Name	Position	Stats
Jaylen Raynor	QB	1,203 YDS (65.1%) / 6 TD / 4 INT 104 RUSH YDS / 2 RUSH TD / 20.8 RUSH YPG
Chauncy Cobb	WR	27 REC / 367 YDS / 0 TD / 73.4 YPG
Kenyon Clay	RB	166 YDS / 1 TD / 33.2 YPG / 3.3 YPC 15 REC / 54 REC YDS / 1 REC TD / 10.8 REC YPG
Corey Rucker	WR	19 REC / 232 YDS / 1 TD / 46.4 YPG
Avante Dickerson	DB	19 TKL / 1 TFL / 2 INT / 2 PD
Brandon Greil	DB	26 TKL / 0 TFL / 1 INT / 1 PD
Eathan Hassler	DL	15 TKL / 3 TFL / 1.5 SACK
Nigel Nelson	LB	26 TKL / 0 TFL