Tennessee vs. Mississippi State Prediction, Odds, Picks - September 27, 2025

Updated Sep. 27, 2025 3:04 p.m. ET

Data Skrive

The No. 15 Tennessee Volunteers (3-1) will test their seventh-ranked pass offense against the Mississippi State Bulldogs (4-0), who have the No. 13 passing defense, on Saturday, September 27, 2025. The Volunteers are favored by 7.5 points in the contest. The point total for the game is set at 63.5.

Last time around, the Volunteers defeated the UAB Blazers, with 56-24 being the final score. The Bulldogs won against the Northern Illinois Huskies in their most recent game, 38-10.

Keep up with college football all season on FOX Sports.

Tennessee vs. Mississippi State Game Information & Odds

When: Saturday, September 27, 2025 at 4:15 p.m. ET
Location: Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field in Starkville, Mississippi
TV: SEC Network
Live Box Score on FOX Sports

Tennessee vs Mississippi State Betting Information updated as of September 27, 2025, 2:45 p.m. ET.
Favorite	Spread (Odds)	Favorite Moneyline	Underdog Moneyline	Total	Over Moneyline	Under Moneyline
Tennessee	-7.5 (-105)	-293	+236	63.5	-110	-110

Tennessee vs. Mississippi State Prediction

Pick ATS: Mississippi State (+7.5)
Pick OU: Under (63.5)
Prediction: Mississippi State 39, Tennessee 24

Predictions are made by the Data Skrive betting model.

Learn more about the Tennessee Volunteers vs. the Mississippi State Bulldogs game on FOX Sports!

Tennessee vs. Mississippi State Betting Insights

Based on the spread and over/under, the implied score for the game is Volunteers 36, Bulldogs 28.
The Volunteers have a 74.6% chance to collect the win in this meeting based on the moneyline's implied probability. The Bulldogs hold a 29.8% implied probability.
Tennessee has compiled a 3-1-0 ATS record so far this year.
Mississippi State has won all four of its games against the spread this year.

Tennessee vs. Mississippi State: 2025 Stats Comparison

	Tennessee	Mississippi State
Off. Points per Game (Rank)	53.5 (3)	39.8 (17)
Def. Points per Game (Rank)	27.8 (107)	11.8 (18)
Turnovers Allowed (Rank)	6 (96)	2 (17)
Turnovers Forced (Rank)	6 (27)	7 (14)

Tennessee 2025 Key Players

Name	Position	Stats
Joey Aguilar	QB	1,124 YDS (66.7%) / 12 TD / 3 INT 37 RUSH YDS / 1 RUSH TD / 12.3 RUSH YPG
Chris Brazzell II	WR	25 REC / 426 YDS / 6 TD / 106.5 YPG
Star Thomas	RB	272 YDS / 4 TD / 68 YPG / 6.5 YPC 2 REC / 24 REC YDS / 2 REC TD / 12 REC YPG
DeSean Bishop	RB	263 YDS / 3 TD / 65.8 YPG / 6.9 YPC 2 REC / 44 REC YDS / 0 REC TD / 14.7 REC YPG
Joshua Josephs	DL	13 TKL / 2 TFL / 2 SACK
Arion Carter	LB	24 TKL / 2 TFL / 1 SACK
Boo Carter	DB	10 TKL / 1 TFL / 1 SACK
Jalen McMurray	DB	17 TKL / 1 TFL / 1.5 SACK

Mississippi State 2025 Key Players

Name	Position	Stats
Blake Shapen	QB	882 YDS (66.3%) / 7 TD / 2 INT 74 RUSH YDS / 1 RUSH TD / 18.5 RUSH YPG
Brenen Thompson	WR	17 REC / 291 YDS / 3 TD / 72.8 YPG
Da'Marion Bothwell	RB	271 YDS / 4 TD / 67.8 YPG / 5.8 YPC
Anthony Evans III	WR	21 REC / 290 YDS / 2 TD / 72.5 YPG
Isaac Smith	DB	22 TKL / 0 TFL / 1 INT / 1 PD
Will Whitson	DL	7 TKL / 4 TFL / 2 SACK
Brylan Lanier	DB	16 TKL / 0 TFL / 1 INT / 1 PD
Hunter Washington	DB	16 TKL / 0 TFL / 1 INT / 1 PD