Florida vs. Mississippi State Prediction, Odds, Picks - October 18, 2025

Updated Oct. 18, 2025 3:04 p.m. ET

FOX Sports

The Mississippi State Bulldogs (4-2) are 9.5-point underdogs in a home SEC matchup against the Florida Gators (2-4) on Saturday, October 18, 2025 at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium. The over/under is 50.5 in this game.

In their most recent action, the Gators lost against the Texas A&M Aggies, 34-17. The Bulldogs lost to the Texas A&M Aggies, 31-9, in their most recent game.

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Florida vs. Mississippi State Game Information & Odds

When: Saturday, October 18, 2025 at 4:15 p.m. ET
Location: Ben Hill Griffin Stadium in Gainesville, Florida
TV: SEC Network
Live Box Score on FOX Sports

Florida vs Mississippi State Betting Information updated as of October 18, 2025, 2:45 p.m. ET.
Favorite	Spread (Odds)	Favorite Moneyline	Underdog Moneyline	Total	Over Moneyline	Under Moneyline
Florida	-9.5 (-112)	-362	+284	50.5	-112	-108

Florida vs. Mississippi State Prediction

Pick ATS: Mississippi State (+9.5)
Pick OU: Under (50.5)
Prediction: Florida 25, Mississippi State 20

Predictions are made by the Data Skrive betting model.

Learn more about the Florida Gators vs. the Mississippi State Bulldogs game on FOX Sports!

Florida vs. Mississippi State Betting Insights

Based on the spread and over/under, the implied score for the tilt is Gators 30, Bulldogs 20.
The Gators have a 78.4% chance to win this meeting based on the moneyline's implied probability. The Bulldogs hold a 26.0% implied probability.
Florida has covered twice in six chances against the spread this season.
Mississippi State has covered five times in six matchups with a spread this year.

Florida vs. Mississippi State: 2025 Stats Comparison

	Florida	Mississippi State
Off. Points per Game (Rank)	22.3 (107)	33.7 (51)
Def. Points per Game (Rank)	19.8 (34)	19.8 (34)
Turnovers Allowed (Rank)	10 (105)	6 (35)
Turnovers Forced (Rank)	7 (72)	11 (19)

Florida 2025 Key Players

Name	Position	Stats
Jadan Baugh	RB	461 YDS / 3 TD / 76.8 YPG / 4.9 YPC 17 REC / 94 REC YDS / 0 REC TD / 23.5 REC YPG
DJ Lagway	QB	1,233 YDS (66.5%) / 9 TD / 7 INT
Vernell Brown III	WR	27 REC / 368 YDS / 0 TD / 61.3 YPG
Dallas Wilson	WR	9 REC / 131 YDS / 3 TD / 65.5 YPG
Myles Graham	LB	32 TKL / 2 TFL
Bryce Thornton	DB	24 TKL / 1 TFL
Jordan Castell	DB	21 TKL / 0 TFL / 2 INT / 2 PD
Devin Moore	DB	19 TKL / 1 TFL / 1 SACK / 1 INT

Mississippi State 2025 Key Players

Name	Position	Stats
Da'Marion Bothwell	RB	465 YDS / 6 TD / 77.5 YPG / 5.5 YPC
Blake Shapen	QB	1,204 YDS (66.7%) / 9 TD / 4 INT 17 RUSH YDS / 1 RUSH TD / 2.8 RUSH YPG
Brenen Thompson	WR	22 REC / 378 YDS / 4 TD / 63 YPG
Davon Booth	RB	265 YDS / 4 TD / 44.2 YPG / 4.5 YPC
Jahron Manning	DB	40 TKL / 0 TFL / 1 INT / 1 PD
Zakari Tillman	LB	28 TKL / 2 TFL / 1 SACK / 1 INT
Brylan Lanier	DB	24 TKL / 0 TFL / 1 INT / 1 PD
Isaac Smith	DB	26 TKL / 0 TFL / 1 INT / 1 PD