Alabama vs. Mississippi State Prediction, Odds, Picks - September 30

Updated Sep. 29, 2023 9:06 a.m. ET

Data Skrive

The No. 12 Alabama Crimson Tide (3-1) visit the Mississippi State Bulldogs (2-2) on Saturday, September 30, 2023 in a matchup between SEC rivals at Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field. Mississippi State is a 14.5-point underdog. The over/under is 46.5 for this game.

The Crimson Tide's most recent game was against the Ole Miss Rebels, and they won by a score of 24-10. In their last contest, the Bulldogs lost against the South Carolina Gamecocks, 37-30.

Alabama vs. Mississippi State Game Information & Odds

When: Saturday, September 30, 2023 at 9:00 PM ET
Location: Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field in Starkville, Mississippi
TV: ESPN
Live boxscore on FOX Sports

Alabama vs Mississippi State Betting Information updated as of September 29, 2023, 6:46 AM ET.
Favorite	Spread (Odds)	Favorite Moneyline	Underdog Moneyline	Total	Over Moneyline	Under Moneyline
Alabama	-14.5 (-110)	-687	+479	46.5	-111	-109

Alabama vs. Mississippi State Prediction

Pick ATS: Mississippi State (+14.5)
Pick OU: Over (46.5)
Prediction: Alabama 31, Mississippi State 20

Learn more about the Alabama Crimson Tide vs. the Mississippi State Bulldogs game on FOX Sports!

Alabama vs. Mississippi State Betting Insights

Per the spread and over/under, the implied score for the matchup is Crimson Tide 30, Bulldogs 16.
The Crimson Tide have an 87.3% chance to collect the win in this meeting based on the moneyline's implied probability. The Bulldogs hold a 17.3% implied probability.
Alabama has a record of 2-2-0 against the spread this season.
Mississippi State has won one game against the spread this year.

Alabama vs. Mississippi State: Head-to-Head

Alabama has a 2-0 record against Mississippi State in their last two matchups.
In those matchups against Mississippi State, the Crimson Tide have covered two times while never going over the total.
In their last two head-to-head matchups, Alabama has compiled 79 points versus Mississippi State, while surrendering only 15 points.

Alabama vs. Mississippi State: 2023 Stats Comparison

	Alabama	Mississippi State
Off. Points per Game (Rank)	30.3 (64)	30.8 (60)
Def. Points per Game (Rank)	13.5 (16)	27.3 (84)
Turnovers Allowed (Rank)	4 (30)	3 (13)
Turnovers Forced (Rank)	5 (74)	7 (33)

Alabama 2023 Key Players

Name	Position	Stats
Jalen Milroe	QB	674 YDS (66.7%) / 6 TD / 3 INT 120 RUSH YDS / 2 RUSH TD / 30.0 RUSH YPG
Jase McClellan	RB	263 YDS / 2 TD / 65.8 YPG / 5.1 YPC
Jermaine Burton	WR	8 REC / 189 YDS / 2 TD / 47.3 YPG
Roydell Williams	RB	198 YDS / 1 TD / 49.5 YPG / 5.2 YPC
Dallas Turner	LB	18 TKL / 6.0 TFL / 4.5 SACK
Chris Braswell	LB	16 TKL / 4.0 TFL / 3.5 SACK
Deontae Lawson	LB	21 TKL / 4.0 TFL / 2.0 SACK
Caleb Downs	DB	25 TKL / 0.0 TFL

Mississippi State 2023 Key Players

Name	Position	Stats
Jo'Quavious Marks	RB	352 YDS / 4 TD / 88.0 YPG / 5.6 YPC 14 REC / 105 REC YDS / 0 REC TD / 26.3 REC YPG
Lideatrick Griffin	WR	20 REC / 388 YDS / 3 TD / 97.0 YPG
Will Rogers	QB	979 YDS (60.7%) / 6 TD / 1 INT
Creed Whittemore	WR	6 REC / 76 YDS / 1 TD / 19.0 YPG
Jett Johnson	LB	34 TKL / 3.0 TFL / 3.0 SACK / 2 INT
Nathaniel Watson	LB	26 TKL / 2.0 TFL / 3.0 SACK / 1 INT
Nathan Pickering	DT	15 TKL / 2.0 TFL / 2.0 SACK
Shawn Preston Jr.	S	12 TKL / 0.0 TFL / 1 INT / 1 PD