2026 World Cup Odds: Books In 'Strong Position' Following USA Elimination

Unless the USMNT made an improbable run to the title, the public betting masses were bound to get beat by the bookmakers at some point.

That point was Monday night in Seattle. 

The USA tumbled to Belgium 4-1, bowing out in the Round of 16 and falling off the World Cup oddsboard.

"It was a bad result for the U.S. but a good result for the book, which was always to be expected when/if they lost. It was one of the biggest wins we’ve had for a soccer game in company history," BetMGM trading manager Adair Horne said.

Oddsmakers help recap the USA-Belgium match and the Americans’ World Cup run over the past month.

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Public Flogging

Throughout the tournament’s group and knockout stages, betting support on the USA flooded in, setting soccer records at Caesars Sports with each subsequent match. Prior to Monday night — except for the Türkiye match — bettors were rewarded, as bookmakers took a bath.

For USA-Belgium, Caesars reported a record number of unique customers wagering. So a Stars & Stripes victory would’ve been a banner night for the betting masses once again.

Instead, Caesars — and sportsbooks across the nation, for that matter — clawed back a big chunk of change.

"It was a better night for the book," Caesars Sports head of soccer trading Mark Bickerdike said. "Our customers were keen to see the USA progress to the quarterfinals, with 81% of money backing them in the To Qualify market and 78% of handle on the Match Betting market."

A couple of hours before kickoff, a high-roller dropped into Circa Las Vegas on downtown Fremont Street, ready to put full faith and credit in the Red, White & Blue. The bettor wagered a massive $750,000 on USA -130 to advance.

That ticket and countless others went into Circa Sports’ coffers.

USA supporters were all over player prop bets, as well, particularly on goal-scoring star Folarin Balogun, in the wake of his red-card suspension being lifted. 

Alas, Balogun got only one good scoring opportunity and failed to find the net.

"Given the attention surrounding Balogun, he was an extremely popular selection in both straight wagers and same-game parlays," Bickerdike said, before pointing to one market where the masses succeeded. "There were still some happy customers, as 97.6% of our Both Teams To Score handle was on Yes, which landed after just 31 minutes."

Indeed, after Belgium’s Charles De Ketelaere opened the scoring in the ninth minute, Malik Tillman drilled in a free kick in the 31st minute to tie it at 1. But that success was short-lived, as less than two minutes later, De Ketelaere’s header put Belgium up for good.

Futures Fallout

Along with betting on the Americans at historic rates in each match, the public betting masses fired away on a U.S. championship in World Cup futures odds. So Monday night’s setback provided a second boon for sportsbooks, as all those futures tickets went begging.

In fact, Caesars Sports couldn’t have asked for a better Monday, with the U.S. dropping out right after Portugal did in a 1-0 loss to Spain.

"Our Tournament Winner book is in a strong position," Bickerdike said. "The USA was by far our biggest outright liability, while Portugal ranked second. So seeing both eliminated on the same day was significant.

"France has been a popular selection in recent weeks, following a series of impressive performances, and now represents our biggest remaining concern in the outright market."

What’s Next

Now, though, the question is whether bettors’ interest substantially wanes, since the USA was a huge driver of wagering activity.

"Overall, it was an exciting run for the USA, with unprecedented interest from bettors not only in USMNT games but in the entire World Cup itself," BetMGM’s Horne said. "Even though the USA is eliminated, we hope that the interest will continue for the rest of the World Cup."

Bickerdike is optimistic, with huge quarterfinal matchups looming: Spain vs. Belgium, England vs. Norway and France vs. Morocco. 

"With many more elite matchups still to come, we wouldn't be surprised to see more soccer wagering records challenged at Caesars," Bickerdike said.