Miami Heat

Heat need to stay in top 10 after lottery in order to retain 2015 pick

Published May. 18, 2015 7:15 p.m. ET

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During his playing days, Alonzo Mourning did whatever it would take to help the Miami Heat be successful as he pushed through injuries, charges, hard fouls and his own body's limitations.

Mourning will be the Heat's representative Tuesday during the NBA draft lottery to be held at 8 p.m before Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals between the Houston Rockets and the Golden State Warriors.

This time, the Heat legend will not be able to influence the outcome with his unrivaled grit and determination. But for a franchise which lacked much good fortune during the 2014-15 season, they'll be counting on whatever they can get to help them either hold on to their No. 10 pick or possibly even move up in the draft.

Miami's pick this year is tied to the LeBron James sign-and-trade deal with the Cleveland Cavaliers completed almost five years ago in which they sent away two first-round picks, two second-round picks and the right to swap first-round picks in 2012 in order for James to secure a longer, slightly more lucrative, deal.

It also added salary cap flexibility for Miami to sign additional players at the time. The team made a similar sign-and-trade deal with the Toronto Raptors for Chris Bosh that also cost the team additional draft picks.

"I'm not so sure that what we did in 2010 is anywhere close to what you can do in 2016," said team president Pat Riley of the next offseason when the NBA's TV deal should trigger a larger salary cap for every team. "The rules have changed. Players could force you into sign-and-trades. We were forced into a sign-and-trade in 2010 and we would gladly do it again, but it cost us four first-round picks for them to get an extra year that they didn't even use."

Half-jokingly, Riley added, "They should have had a rule at that time that if somebody leaves you before that pick, you get it back -- especially if he went home."

The final first-round pick in the James deal was dealt by the Cavaliers to the Minnesota Timberwolves in a three-team trade last August to acquire forward Kevin Love and the pick was subsequently forwarded to the 76ers in exchange for Thaddeus Young.

The Heat's 2015 pick -- one that could help shape their future or remain a footnote of the Big 3 era -- is top 10 protected, meaning the team must either retain their spot or move up in the draft in order to avoid sending it to the 76ers to fulfill their trade obligation. If the Heat do make a selection in the first round this year, the 2016 pick remains top 10 protected next year. If a pick still has not been forwarded to Philadelphia by then, it will become unprotected in 2017.

"Hopefully on May the 19th, we don't have any more buzzard's luck along the way," said Riley. "We're not the 30th-worst team in this league if everybody was standing strong so I look at us as being (a team) that probably should have the 22nd or 23rd pick, and I will gladly next year send that to Philly if that's possible."

By finishing with the 10th worst record in the league, Miami has a 91 percent chance in the lottery of staying locked into the No. 10 spot. They hold 11 of the 1,001 four-number lottery combinations, which gives them a 1.1 percent chance of winning the lottery, a 1.3 percent chance at the No. 2 pick and a 1.6 percent chance for the third pick.

The four lottery teams with better records then the Heat hold a smaller chance of leapfrogging them by moving up to one of the first three spots in the draft, and it would also mean the forfeiture of the pick to the 76ers.

Though NBA teams are forbidden to trade future first-round picks in consecutive years, the Heat would be free to deal this year's pick if they retain it. However, that same rule also means the Heat will be restricted for several years in making any deals involving first-round draft picks if they keep theirs this year. That's because the team also traded away two first-round picks as the centerpiece of a three-team deal in February that netted point guard Goran Dragic. The first pick in the deal is top seven protected in 2017 or 2018 and is unprotected in 2019, along with an additional first-round selection in 2021.

All the more reason for the Heat to hit a home run with this pick should they keep it, as it could mean precious few opportunities to improve the roster via the draft in years to come or as valuable future trade chips.

"You've got to catch something that can be above and beyond," Riley said of the first round. "We talked to Caron Butler and Dwyane Wade and Michael (Beasley) -- very talented players. This is the fourth time we've been in the lottery and we hope that we can catch a player that will go with those guys and help us win."

The highest the Heat have ever selected in the draft was in 2008, when they finished with a league-worst 15-67 record and a 25 percent chance at the first pick but wound up with the No. 2 pick and Michael Beasley after the Chicago Bulls won the lottery with a 1.7 percent probability to select future MVP Derrick Rose.

The Heat drafted Kurt Thomas in 1995 and Caron Butler in 2002 with the No. 10 selection. Notable NBA players who were 10th overall draft picks in recent years include Paul George, Austin Rivers, Brandon Jennings, Brook Lopez and Andrew Bynum.

You can follow Surya Fernandez on Twitter @SuryaHeatNBA or email him at SuryaFoxSports@gmail.com.