National Football League

All-Purpose Playbook: Week 10 NFL analysis, futures picks and DraftKings selections

Published Nov. 6, 2014 2:00 p.m. ET

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Brett Smiley

Welcome to the All-Purpose Playbook, a Buzzer column that is (1) either a guide to many things NFL and wagering, such as survivor pools and teasers and fantasy football or (2) a road map to hell. Check back here on Thursdays for more football picks, a smattering of GIFs and occasional nonsense.

Follow me @brettsmiley on Twitter, and you can e-mail me with any questions or comments at basmiley [at] gmail [dot] com.

It's Week 10? It's Week 10!

Time flies when you're desperately flailing to try and stay above .500, pick the Detroit Lions in London and eat enough candy on Halloween to send a lab rat into diabetic shock.

Anyhow, last week we got completely bludgeoned. I don't ever root for a player injury (seriously, that's foul) but when I saw Eagles QB Nick Foles go down in Houston with the game tied 7-7 and Mark Sanchez set to take over after toting a clipboard for the entire season, I felt like things were going to be OK for the Texans at +2.5.

It also didn't help that the other starting CB, Kareem Jackson, went down with an MCL sprain, Jadeveon Clowney sat out with an illness, and Brian Cushing didn't step on the field because his knee isn't ready.

To Sanchez's credit, he was ready for the moment (unlike, that's right . . .). Now let's go to Drew Bledsoe for the quote of the week:

"You know, I'm just so damn happy for Mark Sanchez," Bledsoe said, via NFL.com. "I mean, going to play quarterback for the Jets, it's kind of like, you know when they used to like take the pretty young virgin up to the edge of the volcano and just throw 'em in? That's kind of what it is when you play quarterback for the Jets. It just feels bad."

I think what Bledsoe is saying is that Mark Sanchez lost his virginity to a volcano in New York. Either that, or the bumbling, fumbling J-E-T-S set Sanchez up for failure, and now, he's been reborn as an Eagle.

Meanwhile, a plane circled the Jets practice facility on Wednesday with a banner clamoring for GM John Idzik's sacrifice, whose roster includes Week 9 inactive QB Geno Smith and, of course, former Eagle Michael Vick, who said fans would have done better by giving money used for the plane rental to charity. I think we can all at least agree that the biggest waste of money is a Jets PSL.

Let's get to the Week 10 action, but since we've officially reached the halfway mark, I'm going to do things a bit differently this week.

In my neverending quest to add more layers upon layers of sports betting, at the risk of sending your marriage to the edge of a volcano, two things: (1) I think it's time to take a look at Super Bowl futures and (2) let's talk daily fantasy leagues!

After getting humiliatingly knocked from five survivor pools in one weekend, I started playing games on DraftKings. Kind of like a rebound fling, only I didn't end up weeping or longing for the torture of survivor pools during or after the act.

Anyhow, if you're reading this in the first place you probably know what daily fantasy leagues are all about, but if not: You draft a team within the bounds of a salary cap, join a contest, turn on RedZone channel and pray. It's a lot of fun. More information here.

DRAFTKINGS PLAYS OF THE WEEK: LET’S FIND SOME VALUE!

Quarterbacks:

Ben Roethlisberger ($7,500) at Jets: This is a no-brainer against a putrid Jets secondary. I don’t know if Big Ben has another 6-pack in him (throwing, not drinking) but he’s vastly cheaper than Peyton Manning and Aaron Rodgers.

Mark Sanchez ($5,400) vs. Panthers: A quarterback costs $5,000 just for having a pulse. You’re telling me for only $400 more I can get a guy with more than 50 career starts under his belt who's throwing to Jeremy Maclin, plus LeSean McCoy and Darren Sproles in the flats? The Panthers’ secondary has gotten shredded.

Running backs:

LeSean McCoy ($5,600) vs. Panthers: He’s been underpriced for a few weeks and just ran for over 100 yards. It’d be nice if he gets more looks in the passing game but price is still right.

Bobby Rainey ($4,400) vs. Falcons: Looks like this may be the week that rookie Charles Sims gets in the mix but even if Rainey gets about 15 looks and touches, he’s still a bargain at this price, especially against a weak Falcons defense.

Wide Receivers:

Kelvin Benjamin ($4,200) at Eagles: Yes, I’m hoping there’s 93 points scored in this game. Benjamin caught only two passes last week but at least he got 10 targets. You can’t find a No. 1 wideout who’s priced more reasonably that Benjamin.

Julio Jones ($6,600) at Buccaneers: Not the cheapest option but very far from the most expensive. Jones torched the Bucs for 161 yards and two scores in Week 3. Me and Julio down by the end zone.

Tight end:

Defense/Special Teams:

New Orleans Saints ($2,700) vs. 49ers: Certainly not for the shutout potential, but because Colin Kaepernick has been sacked 14 times in the past two weeks, and because the Saints usually deliver a more inspired performance at home. If you take the Saints, ideally the 49ers get behind and Kaepernick forces the ball into coverage.

One last note: I prefer playing 50/50 games to contests. Of course, last week I managed to finish 6th in a 420-person contest for a nice payout, but your team has to be pretty close to perfect to climb that high. Giddy’up!

SUPER BOWL FUTURES: LOOK INTO THE CRYSTAL BALL

Below you’ll find the top 17 teams, via Vegas Insider. After that you’re looking at teams beyond 50-1 that statistically don’t have much of a shot at even reaching the playoffs, but if you like setting your money on fire while dreaming about yachts, don’t let me stop you. Also, I’m frequently going to reference Football Outsiders’ playoffs odds (grounded in each team’s weighted DVOA) which you can check out there.

TIER I

Denver Broncos: 18/5

Despite getting trucked by the Patriots in Foxborough last weekend, they’re still the Vegas favorite. I don’t think that loss is a major indictment of this Broncos team, though. The Patriots just DO NOT lose at home to AFC foes; the W gives New England 34 consecutive (34!) wins at home against conference opponents. Put another way, the Broncos need to find a way to secure the No. 1 seed.

Football Outsiders gives the Broncos a 20.3% chance to win the Lombardi Trophy, more than double that of the next team. The implied odds of an 18-5 line puts the Broncos chance of winning the Super Bowl at 21.7%. So you're not getting any true "value" with this line, but it's not a total ripoff if you think this is the Broncos’ year, or if you think they are a lock for the No. 1 seed and want to grab the tastiest line you're likely to see. Coming off their drubbing to the Patriots, that time is probably now. The line was 9/4 beforehand, so this is probably the best the line you can get for the Broncos, considering the relatively soft schedule up ahead.

New England Patriots: 6/1

With a 7-2 record, the Patriots have an inside track to a bye, but still face a relatively tough schedule with @Colts, Lions, @Packers, @Chargers and Dolphins for its next five. Last week the Patriots were 8/1, so I think you’d be better off waiting for a better price if they stumble in one of those five games. It looks like the New York Giants won’t reach the Super Bowl, so the Patriots will just need to make it there.

Seattle Seahawks: 17/2

The Super Bowl hangover is real. The Seahawks have personnel and depth problems and lack explosiveness on offense. It was less apparent last year when the defense was holding opponents to just 14.4 points per game. Seattle will have to slow down Arizona (7-1) in Weeks 12 and 16 to catch a bye, and secure its biggest advantage -- home field. Football Outsiders gives Seattle less than a 5% chance of going the distance, yet the implied odds are 11.7%.

Green Bay Packers: 9/1

Arizona Cardinals: 12/1

With a 7-1 record overall and against the spread, they just continue to defy expectations. But whose expectations? A lesser Cardinals team reached the playoffs at 8-8 in 2008, heated up at the right time, and came within 35 seconds of winning the Super Bowl. I’m still not completely sold on this team though and it continues to struggle in the secondary. What would Rodgers, Nelson, Cobb & Co. do to them in January? You’re probably better off waiting for a better price after a Cardinals loss, if ever . . .

TIER II

Indianapolis Colts: 17/1

Remember the Andrew Luck vs.  Robert Griffin III debate? That was fun. Football Outsiders gives the Colt an 8.5% chance to win the Super Bowl, good for third-best. Luck and the offense can consistently put up 30-plus points per game. Yet, here’s the visualization of the Colts’ defense against the Steelers:

Every team lays an egg here and there, though. There’s a little bit of value on the Colts.

Dallas Cowboys: 18/1

Prior to the Arizona loss, Dallas’s odds were 14/1. If you happen to be holding Tony Romo’s latest MRI results and see that everything looks fine, with little risk of further or re-injury, then now is probably a good time to jump in. Absent that, probably best to wait and see about Romo’s health.

New Orleans Saints: 18/1

Looks like Stella may have gotten her groove back. One of the preseason favorites (10.5/1), the Saints have won two in a row (and one on the road!) and now get to play three straight at home. The secondary is a liability but there’s still decent value on a team that, remember, went to Philly and won in the playoffs last year. It helps that their division stinks, so they’ll probably end up hosting a Wild Card game. Not bad.

Philadelphia Eagles: 20/1

Do you believe in the Jets’ virgin sacrifice? Because Sanchez going to have a full six weeks or more at the helm. Anchored by some early special teams successes, Philly actually has the second-highest Super Bowl win probability according to Football Outsiders, at 10.1%. The Eagles have secondary problems of their own, but if they can deliver a pass rush like they did in the 27-0 demolition of the Giants, they can make a deep run. But . . . how do you feel about Sanchez/Foles beating Brady or Manning in the Super Bowl?  

TIER III

Detroit Lions: 25/1

Cincinnati Bengals: 25/1

Andy Dalton has one touchdown and seven interceptions in three postseason starts. Marvin Lewis is 0-5 in the playoffs. They’ve regressed on defense. I wouldn’t bet this with your money.

Pittsburgh Steelers: 30/1

Maybe? The defense certainly brought the thunder against the Ravens but can they bring that kind of intensity every week? There’s no question about the weapons on offense, but with an aged defense and injuries to Troy Polamalu, Ryan Shazier, I’m not sure they could withstand a January onslaught from the top AFC teams.

San Francisco 49ers: 30/1

Now at 4-4, behind the Seahawks and Cardinals in their own division and a date in New Orleans, I don’t even think they make the playoffs. Jim Harbaugh already has one foot out the door.

TIER IV

Kansas City Chiefs: 40/1

There’s only so many opportunities to post that picture. I’ve thrown money at lesser propositions, but I think there’s better value on the next two teams.

Miami Dolphins: 40/1

The 2007-8 and 2011-12 New York Giants reaffirmed that you can get there by winning three (or two) on the road, and that a dominant pass rush can seal the deal. ProFootballFocus gives scores the Dolphins’ Cameron Wake-led pass rush the second best in the league (to only the Ravens). It’s a longshot but that’s why it would pay at 40/1.

Baltimore Ravens: 50/1

Same goes for the Ravens, only they might be even more attractive because Joe Flacco has proven he has the mettle to stand tall in the postseason. Baltimore desperately needs CB Jimmy Smith back, who’s supposed to return from a foot sprain in Week 12 or 13.

San Diego Chargers: 50/1

Oh my, it seems the love affair ended faster than Kim Kardashian and Kris Humphries’.

To conclude:

I think the best value plays are the Saints, Ravens and Dolphins (the latter two as longshots). But if you really like the Broncos or Packers, now is probably a good time on those teams.  

UNDERDOG PICK OF THE WEEK: FEED ME POINTS

Last week’s Texans and Giants disasters dropped the record to 7-8.

St. Louis Rams +7 at Arizona Cardinals

Something’s gotta give with these Cardinals, right? Right? Currently 70 percent of wagers are coming in on the home favorites. The Rams sandwiched nice wins against the 49ers and Seahawks with that Kansas City clunker.

As they proved in the Seahawks game, you have to respect that Jeff Fisher and these Rams will pull out any and every stop for a win. The Rams’ pass rush was impressive last week and Carson Palmer is not exactly nimble in the pocket.

The Cardinals can squash any run game so Austin Davis is going to need to make a few throws, but I like put my chips on pluck and a guy who’s still got nothing to lose.  

Good luck this week!

Follow me @brettsmiley on Twitter, and you can e-mail me with any questions or comments at basmiley [at] gmail [dot] com.

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