The New York Islanders are one of the teams that can protect either eight skaters or ten in the NHL Expansion Draft. They may need those seven forwards more than the Vegas Golden Knights, though.
In the NHL Expansion Draft, who do the New York Islanders protect? Seven forwards or four defensemen?
nhl power rankings NHL Expansion Draft
New York Islanders goalie Jaroslav Halak (41) is congratulated by Josh Bailey (12) (James Guillory-USA TODAY Sports)
Either strategy could work out for New York, both strategies have downfalls.
The Islanders have to make up their mind soon though. So here's how the Islanders could protect seven forwards.
The Islanders have some sure-fire protection spots. They have some NMCs to deal with as well. But in the end, they have plenty of options.
NHL Expansion Draft
New York Islanders center John Tavares (91) skates up ice with the puck against the Pittsburgh Penguins (Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports)
Islanders Forwards
Applicable forwards: John Tavares, Andrew Ladd, Nikolai Kulemin, Anders Lee, Cal Clutterbuck, Casey Cizikas, Josh Bailey, Ryan Strome, Brock Nelson, Jason Chimera, Shane Prince, Steve Bernier, Alan Quine.
Everybody that the Islanders might protect is under contract, which is exceedingly useful. The Islanders can protect their seven best forwards and still have two that meet the minimum requirements in the NHL Expansion Draft.
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NMC: John Tavares, Andrew Ladd
John Tavares is the Islanders captain and perhaps their lone star. He's a year away from unrestricted free agency, which has to be scary for the Islanders.
But they're highly likely to re-sign him. He's 26 and putting up numbers in the 60's (four straight seasons with 60 or more points, six seasons total).
He led all Islanders in points by ten.
Tavares isn't going anywhere, at least not in the NHL Expansion Draft. He's too big of a star for the Islanders, who are otherwise star-starved.
Ladd was signed last offseason, and was given an NMC for god knows what purpose. The Islanders will have to suffer through his contract, which is 5.5 million until 2023.
When I say suffer through, it's because Ladd is 31. He only put up that many points. 23 of his points were goals. Which means that Ladd can't assist on this Islanders team.
That may be on the Islanders, who need to find more talent offensively.
Guaranteed: Brock Nelson, Anders Lee
Nelson and Lee are guaranteed because if the Islanders go with eight skaters, they will round out the four.
Nelson is 25, making only 2.5 (million) and will be a restricted free agent next season. He put up 20 goals and 25 assists. 4 of those goals were game-winning.
Brock Nelson's possession numbers were horrendous, but he was on a horrendous possession team. Still, he's gotta clean that up.
Anders Lee had the third most points on the Islanders roster. That includes a team-leading 34 goals. He's 26 and has put up 129 points over the last three years.
His possession numbers are amazing. Lee represents a 6.6 Corsi spike when he's on the ice. That's really good and it's what keeps him really safe in the NHL Expansion Draft.
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Maybe: Josh Bailey, Ryan Strome, Casey Cizikas
Josh Bailey was second on the team in points. So why isn't he guaranteed? Because he's 27, which means he's older than Nelson and Lee.
He also only scored 13 goals. His assists are easier to replace than Lee's 34 goals.
He becomes an unrestricted free agent next season, after which he may request (fairly) a larger contract.
The Islanders would likely want to save Bailey from the NHL Expansion Draft.
It's not out of the realm of possibility that they spend a pick to keep him. But he may not fit into the eight skater strategy.
Ryan Strome is 23. If the Islanders are going to the 7-3-1 strategy, he's certainly safe.
But he only scored 30 points in 69 games. His 13 goals are the same amount as Bailey.
Strome is unlikely to fit into the top four because of his health (has missed at least 10 games the last two years) and because he only scored 30 points and 13 goals.
Casey Cizikas is likely the Islanders' best bottom six player. He's also only 26. Doesn't become an unrestricted free agent until 2021. Put up 25 points. Was a positive factor in terms of Fenwick.
But he's never been anything more than a third liner. He's not even close to being one of the four. And he makes 3.350 million. So there are factors working him towards the NHL Expansion Draft.
NHL Expansion Draft
New York Islanders defenseman Nick Leddy (2) skates with the puck against the Pittsburgh Penguins (Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports)
Islanders Defensemen
Applicable New York Defensemen: Johnny Boychuk, Nick Leddy, Travis Hamonic, Thomas Hickey, Dennis Seidenberg, Ryan Pulock, Scott Mayfield, Jesse Graham, Matthew Finn, Calvin De Haan, Adam Pelech, Loic Leduc.
NMC: Johnny Boychuk
Boychuk isn't a free agent until 2022. His no movement clause was likely implemented just for the NHL Expansion Draft.
He's had four straight seasons of at least 20 points, and he averaged 20 minutes a night. The only problem is he only played 66 games this season.
Boychuk has to get healthy. But at 33, he's still one of the Islanders best defensemen.
Guaranteed: Nick Leddy, Travis Hamonic
Leddy is the Islanders number one defenseman. He proved that through his minutes – 22 a night – his points – 46 – and through a 50.8% defensive zone shift start percentage. Leddy is being played in all situations,
Leddy is being played in all situations and is being paid 5.5 million. He's not a free agent until 2022 and is too valuable to let go for free.
Hamonic takes the spot over Calvin De Haan because of his defensive ability. And the fact that he has a contract. But Hamonic is one of the strongest defensive defensemen on the Islanders roster.
Hamonic had 14 points in 49 games, about the same number of points-per-game as De Haan.
Probably: Calvin De Haan
De Haan is a great defenseman who posted 25 points in 82 games. He had 190 blocks this season and started most of his shifts in the defensive zone. He's also just 26.
If the Islanders go with the four forwards-four defensemen strategy presented above, De Haan is certainly safe. But the Islanders may stick with seven forwards, and then De Haan will be gone.
NHL Expansion Draft
New York Islanders goalie Thomas Greiss (1) during the first period against the Boston Bruins at Barclays Center. (Anthony Gruppuso-USA TODAY Sports)
Applicable goaltenders: Jaroslav Halak, Thomas Greiss, Christopher Gibson
Guaranteed: Thomas Greiss
Greiss may be 31, but he's making just 3 million dollars until 2020. He played a role in dragging the Islanders to the playoffs last year and played in 51 games this season.
Plus, Greiss posted a not bad (but not great) .913 SV% 2.69 GAA. His Quality Start percentage was better than any previous year over 20 games.
Exempt List
Mikhail Grabovski, Anthony Beauvillier, Joshua Ho-Sang, Mathew Barzal, Michael Dal Colle
NHL Expansion Draft
New York Islanders defenseman Thomas Hickey (14) controls the puck in the second period of the game against San Jose Sharks (Stan Szeto-USA TODAY Sports)
Available New York Islanders: Nikolai Kulemin, Cal Clutterbuck, Jason Chimera, Shane Prince, Steve Bernier, Alan Quine, Thomas Hickey, Dennis Seidenberg, Ryan Pulock, Calvin De Haan, Adam Pelech, Jaroslav Halak, Christopher Gibson.
Vegas takes Thomas Hickey. Honestly, if Calvin De Haan isn't protected, it will likely be because he was traded before the NHL expansion draft. Hickey won't be protected either way.
But Vegas can take on a 28-year-old defenseman making just 2.2 million. Especially when said defenseman has shown the ability to be a 20-point scorer.
Especially when those 20 points come with more shift starts in the defensive zone.
But if the Islanders choose to go with the four defensemen four forwards route, expect Ryan Strome or Josh Bailey to be taken in the NHL expansion draft.
Both are good young forwards, one of whom will be a restricted free agent. Strome especially is vulnerable to selection in the draft.
