New York Islanders Bad Puck Luck Statement is Just a Diverssion
New York Islanders coach Jack Capuano recently blamed “puck luck” for the Isles recent woes. But that couldn’t be further from the truth.
After a third loss in a row, New York Islanders head coach Jack Capuano blamed “puck luck” for the Isles current run of form. Masking just about anything else going on with the team.
Eyes on Isles expert Matt O’Leary said it well: “How about blaming it on your penalty kill which has been bad for over a week now? Or on your forwards who are still missing in action? Capuano already threw Garth Snow under the bus how about putting some blame on himself.”
I tend to agree with Matt’s assessment, and I know you do too. Because we aren’t delusional quasi-mulleted NHL coaches scared to lose their jobs.
The Isles aren’t victims of bad bounces. Sure they’ve had some bad bounces, but it’s not like bounces have defined their season so far. Just for the sake of argument, though, does Jack Capuano have a point?
I want to look at a few factors and how the Islanders stack up in each: shooting percentage, faceoff percentages and save percentages
None are direct quantifications of “puck luck”, but all establish a certain puck-luckiness or un-luckiness. Combined they can paint a picture that either proves what Cap was saying or absolutely deny it.
Nov 5, 2016; Brooklyn, NY, USA; New York Islanders center John Tavares (91) attempts to put a shot on goal during overtime against Edmonton Oilers goaltender Cam Talbot (33) at Barclays Center. Edmonton Oilers won in shootout 4-3. Mandatory Credit: Anthony Gruppuso-USA TODAY Sports
Shooting Percentage
Whether a puck goes past a goaltender and into the back of the net is absolute luck. Players can improve their chances by creating openings in high scoring areas, slapping the puck with so much force that the goaltender stands no chance, or sitting on the open side of the net and just tapping it in. Just a few suggestions that I freely offer to the Islanders. But
There are a few other factors that can help a shooter, but that’s it. They just help the shooter. There isn’t a glitch in the game where a goal is guaranteed if only the player was to wrap around from the right side of the net.
So what are the Isles individual shooting percentages?
| SH% | AVGSH% | DIF | |
| SEIDENBERG, DENNIS | 28.6 | 3.2 | 25.4 |
| BEAUVILLIER, ANTHONY | 11.1 | 0 | 11.1 |
| HAMONIC, TRAVIS | 13.3 | 3.3 | 10 |
| STROME, RYAN | 11.1 | 8.1 | 3 |
| CIZIKAS, CASEY | 12.5 | 9.5 | 3 |
| LEDDY, NICK | 9.1 | 6.4 | 2.7 |
| DE HAAN, CALVIN | 5 | 2.4 | 2.6 |
| BOYCHUK, JOHNNY | 6.1 | 3.8 | 2.3 |
| HICKEY, THOMAS | 7.1 | 4.9 | 2.2 |
| NELSON, BROCK | 13.6 | 12.4 | 1.2 |
| TAVARES, JOHN | 11.1 | 12.9 | -1.8 |
| BAILEY, JOSH | 9.5 | 11.4 | -1.9 |
| CLUTTERBUCK, CAL | 4.5 | 8.7 | -4.2 |
| LEE, ANDERS | 6.7 | 11 | -4.3 |
| CHIMERA, JASON | 0 | 8.9 | -8.9 |
| LADD, ANDREW | 0 | 11.5 | -11.5 |
| KULEMIN, NIKOLAI | 0 | 11.7 | -11.7 |
*All stats taken from NHL.com
Based on shooting percentage, the Islanders are actually lucky. The table here measures the isles current shooting percentage with their average shooting percentage from their NHL careers. Then displays the different to highlights how each player is trending.
The likes of Dennis Seidenberg and Travis Hamonic and getting above average shooting percentages. In fact, most of the defensive line is getting above par shooting percentage.
So just imagine if the defense’s scoring touch dried up? What then coach?
Jan 4, 2015; Edmonton, Alberta, CAN; Edmonton Oilers forward Benoit Pouliot (67) battles at a faceoff against New York Islanders forward Ryan Stone (18) during the second period at Rexall Place. Mandatory Credit: Perry Nelson-USA TODAY Sports
Faceoff Percentages
Faceoffs are 50/50. That’s just how it works. You either win or you don’t. But like a coin toss you can still get more tails more than 50% of the time.
Teams place a ton of importance on winning a faceoff, simply because winning the draw allows a team to immediately gain possession of the puck. A vital strategy in the attempt of getting said puck into the back of the net.
If the Islanders were truly getting bad puck luck it would show on the faceoff dot. Some players are better at faceoffs, Yannick Perrault comes to mind. But even then, his best offering was 64.33% on the dot.
Timing and luck, that’s all it is. So how do the Islanders figure in the faceoff department?
| FO% | AVGFO% | DIF | |
| CLUTTERBUCK, CAL | 33.33 | 34.5 | -1.17 |
| TAVARES, JOHN | 52.02 | 51.1 | 0.92 |
| STROME, RYAN | 55.93 | 45.6 | 10.33 |
| CIZIKAS, CASEY | 49.24 | 49.6 | -0.36 |
| NELSON, BROCK | 41.03 | 44.3 | -3.27 |
| BAILEY, JOSH | N/A | 43.2 | N/A |
| BEAUVILLIER, ANTHONY | 55.56 | N/A | N/A |
| LEE, ANDERS | 50 | 23.5 | 26.5 |
| CHIMERA, JASON | 20 | 46.9 | -26.9 |
| LADD, ANDREW | N/A | 42.5 | N/A |
| KULEMIN, NIKOLAI | 66.67 | 43.9 | 22.77 |
*All faceoff stats taken from NHL.com
Most of the Islanders forwards have made insurmountable improvements in their faceoff abilities. The big negatives here are Jason Chimera (-26.9%) and Brock Nelson (-3.27%). But Chimera has taken a total of 5 draws on the season. He win’s just another one of those draws and that differential drops another five percent.
So outside of Chimera, where’s the bad luck? Nelson? His -3.27% isn’t something to write home about, but he’s certainly within an acceptable plus/minus range.
In fact, if you look at these numbers a certain Ryan Strome stands out with an almost 56% faceoff win ratio. That’s better than the man he’s essentially replacing. Rhymes with Hans Vielsen….
So if anything the Isles are getting better if not average faceoff numbers than this point last season. Where’s the black cat Cap?
Nov 5, 2016; Brooklyn, NY, USA; Edmonton Oilers center Mark Letestu (55) shoots the winning goal on New York Islanders goalie Jaroslav Halak (41) at Barclays Center. Edmonton Oilers won in shootout 4-3. Mandatory Credit: Anthony Gruppuso-USA TODAY Sports
Save Percentages
The last aspect of the game I wanted to look at was the goaltending. Were the New York Islanders getting bad puck luck, and was it evident in their goaltenders ability to stop the puck?
League average save percentage is somewhere around .923%. The Isles are getting much less than that from their goaltending duo of Jaroslav Halak and Thomas Greiss.
| SV% | AVGSV% | DIF | |
| HALAK, JAROSLAV | 0.905 | 0.917 | -0.012 |
| GREISS, THOMAS | 0.908 | 0.917 | -0.009 |
At .905 and.908 the Islanders aren’t getting league average goaltending. But to be fair, they never were. Both Halak and Greiss average a .917 SV% throughout their careers.
But if there could be any place where “Cappy” has a point is with goaltending. Maybe the Islanders goaltending aren’t getting the bounces they used to get. Leading to more goals against than goals for at the other end.
But then again the Islanders are letting a few more shots against per game. Oh and there’s that little tidbit where one of our goalies just wants to get out of dodge.
Puck luck is an irresponsible scapegoat for the Isles fortunes. It’s self preserving but still irresponsible. I get it. Capuano has a team to run, throwing his coaching staff under-the-bus in the media may not be conductive to getting the best results out of them. But then again, maybe that’s what needs to happen in order to get some sort of results.
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