Getting the most out of the Washington Capitals top-6 forwards
Last season, the Washington Capitals had a problem they haven’t had in a long time: they had a second line center. It was however, inconceivable to Caps fans that Kuznetsov would move ahead of Backstrom on the depth chart. It’s a good problem to have; but Barry Trotz needs to find the winning formula for the top-6.
With the amount of talent in the Caps top-6, we’re going to call the first line the one that Alex Ovechkin plays on. For most of last season, Ovechkin played on a line with Justin Williams or T.J. Oshie on the opposite wing and Kuznetsov or Backstrom at center. The table below shows time on-ice, score-adjusted on-ice corsi numbers (percentage of shot attempts by the Caps vs their opponent) and goal percentage (percent of goals scored that were scored by the Caps) for the line in question:
| LW | C | RW | Minutes | SACF% | GF% |
| Ovechkin | Backstrom | Oshie | 621 | 50.7 | 51.2 |
| Ovechkin | Kuznetsov | Oshie | 179 | 55.9 | 64.8 |
| Ovechkin | Backstrom | Williams | 69 | 62.3 | 54.2 |
| Ovechkin | Kuznetsov | Williams | 68 | 56.1 | 59.0 |
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The results speak for themselves. Ovechkin played the majority of the season with Backstrom and Oshie, but the numbers show that this line was less than optimal at possessing the puck and out-scoring the opposition. The data with Williams on the wing is possibly skewed by the lack of time spent on ice. Based on the corsi and goal numbers, Ovechkin should be playing with Kuznetsov and Oshie. It would be favorable as well to rotate WIlliams into that position and see how it goes. That leaves Backstrom centering the second line. Does this also point to positive numbers?
| LW | C | RW | Minutes | SACF% | GF% |
| Burakovsky | Kuznetsov | Williams | 381 | 53.0 | 52.4 |
| Johansson | Kuznetsov | Williams | 208 | 46.5 | 49.1 |
| Johansson | Backstrom | Williams | 92 | 61.3 | 54.0 |
| Burakovsky | Backstrom | Williams | NED | NED | NED |
Looking at the above, Backstrom seems to be a favorable linemate for Justin Williams, which is good considering Williams’ position on the depth chart. A Williams and Backstrom line would be filled out with either Johansson or Burakovsky. The data above seems to show that Burakovsky is the better fit based on last season. Burakovsky has more offensive upside than Johansson at this point in his career. It would make sense to give him an opportunity to prove himself. Ideally, you’d see a combination of Williams, Backstrom, and one of those guys on the left.
The good news for Caps fans is that it seems that the Capitals coaching staff seems to be more aware of this than last season. Lines at practice show that Kuznetsov is centering Ovechkin and Oshie. Backstrom appears to be between Williams and Burakovsky. Last year’s data would suggest the Caps should be an elite possession team with these lines. Now it’s time to hit the ice and see if this prediction holds true.
Note: Possession data courtesy of the great database Corsica.hockey
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