National Football League

Why Patriots will win Super Bowl XLVI

Published Jan. 23, 2012 12:00 a.m. ET

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This one will be a rematch of Super Bowl XLII, but outside of the quarterbacks, nothing about either offense is the same.

The Patriots are no longer the deep-strike attack that boasted an in-his-prime Randy Moss, considered one of the game’s all-time deep threats. Rather, New England pecks away at defenses in the passing game, throwing screens, crosses and comebacks with its four- and five-receiver sets. Their duo of tight ends, Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski, will also batter anyone over the middle.

Still, Eli Manning’s offense can keep up with Tom Brady and the Patriots, if the situation demands it. Manning threw for nearly 5,000 yards this year, with wide receivers Victor Cruz and Hakeem Nicks, both terrific after the catch, as his main targets. But New York would prefer not to get into a dogfight with New England.

The Giants defeated the Patriots in Week 9, 24-20, by keeping that offense in check for three quarters, and allowing Manning to win it late. In order for a similar result, they’ll need their suspect defensive secondary to rough up those tight ends and slot receiver Wes Welker, and allow that roughneck pass rush to get to Brady. The coaching staff will use these coming two weeks to come up with creative, confusing coverage schemes to do so.

In Super Bowl XLII, Big Blue’s defense, led by veteran Michael Strahan, pounded Brady from the opening series, and a helmet catch by David Tyree led to the game-winning touchdown grab by Plaxico Burress. But Strahan, Tyree and Burress are long gone. This time, the Patriots will be the ones who make the grabs that will move the chains and win it for their fourth world title in 11 seasons.

Prediction: Patriots 28, Giants 20

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