Houston Texans

Texans season preview 2016: Predictions and analysis

Published Jun. 30, 2017 6:28 p.m. ET

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After spending lavishly in the offseason, the Houston Texans are readying for the most pressure-packed season the city has seen since 1993.

Back then, it was Warren Moon, Bubba McDowell, and the Houston Oilers facing a win-now or move-later season. The Oilers started 1-4, reeled off 11 straight wins, and then lost in the AFC Divisional round to Joe Montana and the Kansas City Chiefs.

Houstonites are hoping for a different fate in 2016.

General manager Rick Smith understood the need for a franchise quarterback and took the biggest swing of the free agency period, signing Brock Osweiler to a four-year, $72 million deal with half guaranteed. It was a shocking sum for a player with seven middling starts in his four-year career, but that’s the price of potential at the quarterback position.

After years of watching Ryan Fitzpatrick, Ryan Mallett, and Brian Hoyer, the gamble was borderline necessary. Houston had to make a move or risk becoming a team in football purgatory; too good to pick in the top five but far too inferior to win anything of consequence.

The Texans are banking big that Osweiler can be the first true franchise quarterback in the team’s brief history. Houston came close with Matt Schaub, but the prime of his career was far too short to consider him anything more than a brief, streaking comet that burned out quickly.

Osweiler is only 25 years old and learned the position under Peyton Manning throughout his four years with the Denver Broncos. Last year, Osweiler threw for 1,967 yards and 10 touchdowns with six interceptions and a pair of fumbles. At times, Osweiler appeared to be the answer for Denver in life after Manning, and at others, he looked like a career backup.

Smith was smart not too place the entire offensive burden on Osweiler. The Texans also signed former Miami Dolphins running back Lamar Miller to a four-year deal, giving the young signal-caller some help. Miller, 25, has one 1,000-yard season in his four campaigns on South Beach, rushing for 5.1 and 4.5 yards per carry in each of his past two seasons, respectively. Over that span Miller never missed a game and scored 16 touchdowns.

Of course, the focal point of the offense will continue to be DeAndre Hopkins. Hopkins, 24, has vaulted himself into the conversation alongside Antonio Brown for the best receiver in football. Despite playing with below-average quarterbacks, Hopkins has posted consecutive 1,200-yard seasons, highlighted by 1,521 yards and 11 touchdowns on 111 receptions last year.

The main issue facing Houston right now is the health of reigning Defensive Player of the Year J.J. Watt. Watt underwent back surgery for a herniated disk in mid-July, putting his availability in question. Should be return immediately, how effective is he? Without Watt, the only impact player on the defense is outside linebacker Whitney Mercilus, who totaled 12 sacks in 2015.

The docket is daunting as well. The road games include trips to Jacksonville, Indianapolis, New England, Minnesota, Denver, Oakland and Green Bay. Houston will not be favored in any of those contests. Home dates against Kansas City and Cincinnati also loom.

Last year, the Texans only beat one playoff team – Cincinnati – in its nine victories. Houston was then blown out at home in the AFC Wild Card game, 30-0, by the Chiefs.

Ultimately, Osweiler’s play and the health of Watt will either buoy Houston to a second straight playoff tour, or a disappointing year deep in the heart of Texas.

Schedule

Week 1 – Chicago Bears
Week 2 – Kansas City Chiefs
Week 3 – at New England Patriots (Thurs.)
Week 4 – Tennessee Titans
Week 5 – at Minnesota Vikings
Week 6 – Indianapolis Colts (Sun. night)
Week 7 – at Denver Broncos (Mon.)
Week 8 – Detroit Lions
Week 9 – BYE
Week 10 – at Jacksonville Jaguars
Week 11 – at Oakland Raiders (Mon.; Mexico)
Week 12 – San Diego Chargers
Week 13 – at Green Bay Packers
Week 14 – at Indianapolis Colts
Week 15 – Jacksonville Jaguars
Week 16 – Cincinnati Bengals (Sat. night)
Week 17 – at Tennessee Titans

Weeks 10-14 are going to be brutal on Houston. The Texans are on the road four out of the five games, and facing Derek Carr, Blake Bortles, Aaron Rodgers and Andrew Luck. The home contest? Philip Rivers. Houston also travels to Mexico for that Week 11 showdown against the Raiders.

Conversely, the Texans should like the end of their schedule. While Week 16 against Cincinnati is tough, getting Jacksonville at home and the Titans to end the season is solid. If Houston remains in the race with three weeks left, it could run the table.

Draft class

Round 1 (21) – Will Fuller, WR, Notre Dame
Round 2 (50) – Nick Martin, OG, Notre Dame
Round 3 (85) – Braxton Miller, WR, Ohio State
Round 4 (119) – Tyler Ervin, RB, San Jose State
Round 5 (159) – K.J. Dillon, S, West Virginia
Round 5 (166) – D.J. Reader, NT, Clemson

Houston needed to upgrade the offense and did exactly that, but to what extent? Fuller was projected by most to be a late first-round or early second-day selection, and the Texans scooped him up to pair with DeAndre Hopkins.

Martin should plug in at right guard and take over for the underwhelming Xavier Su’a-Filo. Miller is an intriguing youngster because of his skill set, but he’s also very raw. Don’t expect a ton from Miller in 2016 as he learns the position.

Offseason moves

Acquired

Brock Osweiler, QB (4 years, $72 million)
Lamar Miller, RB (4 years, $26 million)
Jeff Allen, OG (4 years, $28 million

Lost

Brandon Brooks, OG (PHI – 5 years, $40 million)
Jared Crick, DE (DEN – 2 years, $4 million)

X-Factor

Without question, it’s Osweiler. Houston has a very talented team on defense and the offense has playmakers in Hopkins and Miller, but is that enough? The offense has been the Achilles heel of this team for years, and could very well be again.

Osweiler and his $72 million contract will get creamed in the media if the Texans struggle to score, especially in a division with no solid defenses to play against. Houston paid Osweiler like a top-flight quarterback in comparison to his credentials. The Texans better be right.

Bottom Line

The Texans made the playoffs last season only to get rudely slammed out of their own building in the Wild Card round. Houston now has the expectations of making the postseason and going past the first game, perhaps even challenging for the Super Bowl.

After a pair of 9-7 seasons under O’Brien, it’s time to take the next step before Watt begins aging. The Texans aren’t loaded with talent like New England or Arizona, but Houston has an opportunity to make some noise in the AFC.