Atlanta Falcons

Super Bowl 51, Patriots vs Falcons: Preview, Prediction, More

Updated Mar. 4, 2020 3:42 p.m. ET

Fansided, Cody Williams/FanSided via NFL Spin Zone

Super Bowl 51: New England Patriots vs. Atlanta Falcons

Another Super Bowl, another trip to [insert destination of a given year] for the New England Patriots. Tom Brady and Bill Belichick have made a habit of appearing in the Big Game over the course of their dynasty. However, their trip to Super Bowl 51 pits them against a foe and an offense the likes of which they may have never seen before along this run—that of these Atlanta Falcons.

Matt Ryan is the leading MVP candidate and for good reason as he’s run Kyle Shanahan’s offense to perfection this season. The Falcons offense has performed at historic levels all season and carried them to this point. It’s an unlikely and uncommon run for Atlanta to make it to NRG Stadium for Super Bowl 51. While that may be so, they have every chance to take home the Lombardi Trophy.

Despite the Super Bowl pedigree of each team over the past decade being heavily in favor of the Patriots, this is hardly the Powerhouse vs. Underdog narrative that could be painted. Both the Patriots and Falcons have all of the tools necessary to be considered champions.

When the action takes place on Sunday, Feb. 5, the matter of who walks away sitting atop the NFL is far from decided at the start. There are a number of ways that things could shift throughout 60 minutes in Houston. That said, we’ll try our best to sort it all out, looking at each team, the keys to victory, and ultimately predict who will win Super Bowl 51. Shall we?

Dec 18, 2016; Denver, CO, USA; New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady (12) and wide receiver Julian Edelman (11) in the third quarter against the Denver Broncos at Sports Authority Field at Mile High. Mandatory Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports

New England Patriots Team Preview

One of the predominant narratives about the Patriots coming into Super Bowl 51—especially to sell them going against the Falcons offense—is that they have a league-leading defense. In terms of scoring, that is indeed the case. That’s largely a product of their stinginess in the red zone where they have been stalwarts all season long, including in the postseason. However, their defense overall has been middle-of-the-road.

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Facing the Pittsburgh Steelers at full strength in the AFC Championship was their toughest matchup all season and they lucked out there in terms of the Le’Veon Bell injury. While that may be so, they were still lights-out in that game and proved many doubters (myself among them) wrong. Malcolm Butler, Logan Ryan, Devin McCourty and that secondary are elite while the front-seven is disciplined enough to make up for perceived deficiencies in some spots. Having Dont’a Hightower doesn’t hurt the cause either.

On the other side of the ball, though, no one should ever doubt Brady and his cast and crew around him. Even without Rob Gronkowski, this unit has been humming and beating anyone set before them in a variety of ways. LeGarrette Blount has been forceful and grinding on the ground while a potpourri menu of receiving options from Chris Hogan to Dion Lewis to the ever-present Julian Edelman have been productive all season long.

As the defense faces by far their toughest test against an offense that has rarely been stopped—if they ever really have—the Patriots offense will continue to be their lifeblood in this game. There will be no nerves with this battle-tested and experienced group. If they’re going to win, it’ll be on the merits of their offense, with a potential play from the secondary serving as a jump-off point.

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Atlanta Falcons Team Preview

While everyone was busy celebrating the resurgence of the Dallas Cowboys in the NFC this season, the Falcons were simply doing their business and quietly putting everyone on notice with their offensive prowess. Following talk of potentially moving on from him following the 2015 season, Matt Ryan delivered a masterclass performance at quarterback in 2016 and absolute eviscerated the competition before him.

Averaging more than 30 points per game this season and somehow amping that up during the playoffs, Atlanta has a well-oiled machine on offense. They can beat you any way that they see fit with a two-headed monster in the backfield comprised of Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman, their explosive receiving corps led by the un-coverable Julio Jones, and of course with Ryan leading the way with uncanny poise and efficiency this season.

However, what’s been the most surprising development of the postseason has been how Dan Quinn has galvanized his defense. Even playing without two stars in Adrian Clayborn and Desmond Trufant, the Falcons defense gave both the Seattle Seahawks and then the Green Bay Packers immense troubles in the pair of Atlanta victories to get to the Super Bowl.

Vic Beasley’s ability to get pressure on the edge has been huge for the defense in the playoffs and all season long. What’s been incredible about this defensive unit, though, is how creative they’ve been able to do other things schematically. With blitzes coming from the outside, the institution of more Cover 1 amidst Quinn’s patented Cover 3 look, and with young playmakers in the secondary stepping up, it’s been a work of art. Even still, they’ll be tested more so than ever against the Patriots.

Jan 30, 2017; Houston, TX, USA; New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady (left) talks with Atlanta Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan during Super Bowl LI Opening Night at Minute Maid Park. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

Super Bowl 51 Keys to Victory

It’d be simple to say that the offenses both need to be themselves in Houston for the Patriots and Falcons to each have success. That’s far too obvious, though, considering that offense is what these teams thrive on and what led them to this point. Instead, it goes a bit deeper as to what will decide the matchup in Houston. Specifically, it comes down to what the defenses can do to hinder their opponents from at least being at full-speed on offense.

For New England, that consists of two parts. First of all, the front seven and Hightower in particular have to be both disciplined and quick against Freeman and Coleman coming out of the backfield. This applies to the running game and when the backs are used as receivers. By doing this, the Patriots can effectively help loosen Atlanta’s offense’s control on the game.

What’s more, they also have to be sure to not focus too heavily on Julio Jones with the secondary. Yes, you can’t let the stud wideout run wild. However, Taylor Gabriel and Mohamed Sanu can burn defenses as well if too much focus is placed on Jones. Thus, there needs to be a balance of responsibilities on the back-end of the defense.

Then we get to the Falcons defense, who also has two major responsibilities if they want to have success in this game. Much like what the Pats need to do against the run, Atlanta’s defense has to be stout against Blount in the running game. If New England effectively runs the ball, that takes the ball out of Ryan and the offense’s hands and all but negates what Atlanta is capable of as a whole.

More important than that, though, is how they’re able to stifle Brady. The Houston Texans offered the blueprint of this largely with the pressure they put on the future Hall-of-Fame quarterback. While the Falcons don’t have Jadeveon Clowney and Whitney Mercilus, Beasley and the blitz packages designed by Quinn can still wreak havoc on the Patriots. They have to hurry Brady, but also hit him as well (legally, of course). Brady is rarely rattled, but that at least frustrates him if done consistently over a game.

Dec 18, 2016; Denver, CO, USA; New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady (12) in the first quarter against the Denver Broncos at Sports Authority Field at Mile High. Mandatory Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports

Super Bowl 51 Prediction

So where does this all leave us. We have two great offenses coming into Houston to try and determine the champion of the NFL. In the end, who will reign victorious above the other: the New England Patriots or the Atlanta Falcons?

For starters, don’t buy into the narrative that this game will be lower scoring than people expect. Yes, both Belichick and Quinn have great schematic minds and should be able to have some success defensively. By the same token, though, both of these offenses are explosive enough and malleable enough to adapt throughout the game and find the success that we’re used to seeing them have this season.

While that me be the case, what can’t be overlooked in this matchup is the simple fact that the Patriots have been here before from top-to-bottom. The players, coaches, and everyone involved aren’t newcomers on this big stage with this high of stakes. Meanwhile, the Falcons almost exclusively are outside of Quinn. Though nerves might be somewhat overrated to a degree, that type of discrepancy can’t be ignored.

In the end, that experience will be the deciding factor here. It may take until late in the fourth quarter. What’s more, who knows if the play will come by the effort of the Patriots or by a mistake of the Falcons. But rest assured that the Pats will not falter with another ring in their face. It’s the narrative that’s been written since the start of Deflategate’s gross mishandling. Now the final chapter is written.

Super Bowl 51 Pick: New England Patriots: 34, Atlanta Falcons: 30