QB Notebook: Fernando Mendoza Is The Raiders' Best QB; What To Make Of Bennett vs. Simpson

Welcome to the Quarterback Notebook, where I’ll be covering the past week in NFL quarterbacking — from the most interesting passers, plays and storylines, to some other stuff that caught my eye while watching film.

In this preseason edition of the notebook, I’ll make the case for Fernando Mendoza to start in Las Vegas, weigh in on the Rams’ backup quarterback competition, examine the Drew Allar hype, and more. 

Let’s talk quarterbacks.

Fernando Mendoza Should Start In Week 1 For The Raiders

 

The Raiders plan to subject us to a full season of Kirk Cousins as part of Fernando Mendoza’s developmental plan. While that’s disappointing, the reasoning is easy to understand. We’ve seen bad supporting casts stunt a young quarterback’s development. And if you’ve looked at the Raiders' offensive depth chart at any point this summer, you know it lacks the supporting talent that most rookie passers need to have a successful campaign. 

After watching Mendoza’s first two preseason games, though, the Las Vegas brain trust, led by Tom Brady, should feel confident that Mendoza isn’t like most rookies. He’s already showing the polish and refinement coaches want to see from developing quarterbacks before handing them the keys to the offense.

Rookie Raiders head coach Klint Kubiak certainly isn’t treating him like a rookie quarterback with his playcalling. In games against the Cardinals and Texans, Kubiak essentially threw Mendoza into the schematic deep end, with very few schemed-up throws, like screen passes or run-pass options, and a healthy dosage of big-boy dropback concepts that even veteran passers can find difficult to execute.

Fernando Mendoza talks with Raiders head coach Klint Kubiak after their preseason game against the Houston Texans. (Tim Warner/Getty Images)

Mendoza has certainly shown some signs of his youth, especially when his first read doesn’t pop open, but the good has easily outweighed the bad.

I’ve been most impressed with Mendoza’s eyes. They always seem to go to the right spots based on the coverage. The Raiders have dialed up a lot of "pick a side" concepts that see Mendoza read the safeties and pick a side of the field to work based on the coverage shell. That’s not exactly 400-level quarterbacking, but young QBs routinely botch those reads, and Mendoza has had no such issues so far.

If you’ve ever heard Mendoza talk about quarterbacking, that’s hardly surprising. The dude is a robot who sounds like his brain is synced with an AI chatbot trained on coach axioms and old Bill Walsh playbooks.

I have been pleasantly surprised by how crafty Mendoza has already proven to be. This throw from the preseason opener against Arizona is a good example of Mendoza working outside of the scheme to make a play.

There isn’t much of a window there with the Arizona linebacker dropping underneath the deep stop route, so Mendoza looks outside to hold the defender out of the throwing lane just long enough to zip a ball past him. From the end-zone angle, you can see that Mendoza is looking to the outside of the defender before throwing the ball back inside of him.

Now that is 400-level quarterbacking.

Here’s another throw you don’t often see from rookie quarterbacks, with Mendoza hitting a backside "drift" route after Arizona covers up his frontside read.

That’s a staple play-call in Kubiak’s scheme, which is heavily influenced by his former boss, 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan. If you can’t make that throw, you can’t play in this offense. That Mendoza already seems to have it down is a sure sign that he’s game-ready. If I were to nitpick that play, I would point out Mendoza’s awkward footwork as he works to the backside. He can't get his base under him as he makes the throw.

But that’s exactly why he should be on the field getting reps. Mendoza already has the mental acuity to play NFL quarterback. He just needs to get comfortable executing against a live defense. That won't happen on the bench.

Embracing Debate: Was This A Good Throw By Bo Nix?

 

That 35-yard connection between Bo Nix and new Broncos wide receiver Jaylen Waddle set off an internet debate over the quality of that throw. 

My take: It’s complicated.

All things considered, the throw itself is fine. Sure, Nix slowed Waddle down and probably cost him a long touchdown, but we can’t ignore the pass rush's effect on the pass. Packers defensive tackle Devonte Wyatt is bearing down on Nix and gets a hand up to disrupt his throwing motion. He has to snap it off early and can’t get a proper follow-through.

That’s probably why Next Gen Stats had the completion probability at just 46%, even with Waddle running wide open down the seam. The throw wasn’t the layup that it looks like if you’re only focusing on the catch point.

But that’s not where the analysis should end. Nix had the time and space to slide up in the pocket into a cleaner throwing platform, which would have lowered the pass' degree of difficulty considerably.

Pocket management has been the most glaring issue in Nix’s game early in his career, and that has had a downstream impact on his accuracy, as it did in this instance. If the third-year quarterback is going to make the leap Denver is hoping for this season, he’ll have to clean up this one particular issue. 

There hasn’t been much separating Stetson Bennett and Ty Simpson this preseason as they battle for the right to back up reigning MVP Matthew Stafford. Simpson was the better quarterback in the first game, but Bennett hit back in game two, leading the Rams to 20 points on five drives against the Saints while L.A.’s first-round pick was merely fine. With just one more week left in the preseason, the competition still appears to be wide open.

Rams head coach Sean McVay’s final decision will give us a clue as to how the offense might run if Stafford has to miss time during the season. Simpson has been the cleaner of the two, completing nearly 80 percent of his passes, while Bennett has been the more ambitious quarterback with a much higher average air yards per attempt (8.7 yards to 4.7). 

The rookie hasn’t logged a single deep attempt, according to Next Gen Stats, which tells me the Rams haven’t taken the training wheels off for Simpson. Nearly a quarter of his throws have been to the flat, per Next Gen Stats, with many of those coming after play-action fakes. Los Angeles has been spamming bootlegs throughout the exhibition games, and it’s helped pad Simpson’s completion percentage.

The play-call menu has been more expansive when Bennett is out there, with more straight dropbacks and passing concepts that allow the 28-year-old to scan the entire field. It looks more like the offense we’ll see Stafford run during the regular season with Bennett on the field.

The Simpson offense has looked more like McVay’s early days in Los Angeles when he was calling plays for a young Jared Goff. McVay was eager to part ways with Goff and level up his passing game with Stafford. Unless the Rams coach wants to return to the pre-Stafford offense, Bennett will be the next man up if Stafford goes down. If he wants a steadier hand and a safer offense, Simpson could steal the backup job.

Simpson has the higher upside, but I’d roll with Bennett for now. He’s willing — but not always able — to make the tougher perimeter throws, like this audacious touch throw he made in the win over New Orleans.

And McVay lauded Bennett’s scrambling after he rushed for two touchdowns Saturday night. That second-reaction ability adds another layer to the Rams' offense that even the league’s MVP can’t provide.

Don’t Fall For The Drew Allar Thirst Traps

 

The Steelers have already made it clear that Drew Allar’s rookie season will be a redshirt year, so there’s no need to rush into debates on how the third-round pick’s career will turn out. But with Allar putting a handful of flashy throws on tape over the first weeks, including this perfectly weighted ball down the sideline against the Jets, there’s been a rush to anoint him as Pittsburgh’s long-term answer at quarterback.

I guess we’ll be spending these last few weeks before the regular season debating the future of a quarterback who was largely an afterthought during the draft cycle. So, let’s get into it.

That’s admittedly a sweet-looking throw, with Allar dropping it in a bucket near the sideline 38 yards downfield. The play loses some of its luster when you zoom out to the all-22 angle and see that tight end Lake McRee was running into acres of open grass and provided his quarterback with a wide margin for error.

That’s a throw you’d expect most NFL quarterbacks to make — and there are plenty of them who would have made things a bit easier on the receiver, which has been a theme through the two preseason games. Pittsburgh’s receivers have burned Allar with a few drops, but the rookie throwing outside the frame of his target has contributed to some of those missed connections.

If I were a Steelers fan, I’d also be giddy about Allar’s start — but I’d be just as concerned with some of the red flags. 

Allar’s tendency to drift back in the pocket rather than stepping up is chief among them. The rookie has the arm talent to make throws while fading back, but he’d make things a lot easier for himself if he threw with a firm base more consistently. Good quarterbacks don’t make things harder for themselves. The good ones find a way to make the difficult things look easier play after play.

It’s not surprising that Allar has made some impressive throws. His pre-draft scouting report touted him as a quarterback with a talented arm who had issues reading coverage and maintaining proper throwing mechanics. We’ve seen plenty of those weaknesses over the past two weeks. After two up-and-down preseason games, there’s no need to update that scouting report on what he could be.

Allar has yet to show us anything we (and the NFL teams that let him fall to the third round) didn’t already know. The Steelers should continue to develop him, but the team’s search for its next franchise quarterback isn’t over just yet.

With over a hundred quarterbacks taking reps in the preseason, it’s impossible to cover everything in this notebook, so here are five quickfire thoughts and takes on some quarterbacks around the league.

1. Tua Tagovailoa and Michael Penix Jr. are competing for the Falcons’ starting job, but undrafted free agent Jack Strand, a standout Division II Minnesota State–Moorhead quarterback, might be the best quarterback on the roster.

2. Jordan Love’s MVP odds are far too low. The Packers are going to be in some shootouts, and based on what he showed in Denver on Friday night, he may have leveled up his game.

3. If the offensive line keeps Geno Smith clean like it did Friday, the Jets' offense is going to be a lot better than you think.

4. I’m still not ready to give up on Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson, whose preseason tape has been a lot better than the numbers imply. Teams like Miami, Cleveland and Atlanta should give the Colts a call if Riley Leonard ends up winning the QB2 job behind Daniel Jones in Indy.

5. Joe Milton has been my favorite watch of the preseason. He’s more than just a strong arm. Dak Prescott is one of the better quarterbacks in the league, but the Cowboys' offense won’t fall off a cliff if he has to miss time this season.