National Football League

One Super Bowl LI gambling scenario where no one wins their bet

Published Feb. 4, 2017 5:14 p.m. ET

Andrew Lynch

This is why you always take the hook in sports betting.

Hours before Super Bowl LI kicks off in Houston on Sunday (FOX, FOX Sports GO 6:30 p.m. ET), money is pouring in on the New England Patriots to cover as 3-point favorites against the Atlanta Falcons, with a total over/under of 59 points at many Las Vegas books. And that means there's one plausible scenario where neither Las Vegas nor gambling fans win.

Via OddsShark.com:

The total is at 59 in Las Vegas and 58.5 at most online shops with a couple of 59s out there online also. That would make a 31-28 Pats win a rotten result for sportsbooks, who would have to refund every spread bet on a push and any of their bets at 59 on the total would also result in a push.

In case you're not a sports gambler, the spread and the over-under both typically come in half-point increments, because you're essentially betting whether you think a team will win by more or less than the given point spread. If you "take" a team as a 3.5-point favorite, you're saying they will win by more than 3.5 points — which, in practice means four points or more, unless we figure out a way to score half-points in football.

So if Vegas thinks a team is a three-point favorite, a sportsbook might list that spread at either 2.5 or 3.5 points, depending on how strongly the oddsmakers feel in one direction or the other. Otherwise, a three-point favorite that wins by exactly three points is a tie, with neither side winning the bet.

In those instances, the sportsbook returns the total bet to the bettor in a "push," which would happen with both the spread and over/under in that aforementioned scenario where the Pats win 31-28 "If that's the score, we will be refunding tickets until 4 a.m.," CG Technology vice president of risk Jason Simbal told ESPN.com.

Then again, there's another way to look at this: the slim possibility of a 31-28 Patriots victory on the dot gives you a slight chance of freerolling with your Super Bowl bets this weekend.