National Football League

NFL Super Wild Card Weekend odds: How to bet Cowboys-Buccaneers

Updated Mar. 16, 2023 3:34 p.m. ET

It'll be America's Team against America's Greatest Quarterback when the Dallas Cowboys (12-5) play at Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-9) in a NFL Super Wild Card Weekend game on Monday night.

Brady is 7-0 all-time against Dallas, including a 19-3 victory in the season opener on Sept. 11, and is seeking his eighth Super Bowl title. The Cowboys are seeking their sixth Super Bowl title. Dallas leads the all-time series 15-6 though Tampa Bay has won the past two contests.

Here's everything you need from a betting perspective on the Cowboys-Buccaneers game, from the point spread, moneyline, total Over/Under, insights and expert pick (odds via FOX Bet).

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Dallas Cowboys at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8:15 p.m. ET Monday, ABC/ESPN)

Point spread: Cowboys -2.5 (Cowboys favored to win by more than 2.5 points, otherwise Buccaneers cover)
Moneyline: Cowboys -149 favorites to win (bet $10 to win $16.71 total); Buccaneers +115 underdogs to win (bet $10 to win $21.50 total)
Total scoring Over/Under: 45.5 points scored by both teams combined

Pick via Gambling Analyst Sam Panayotovich:

I’m drinking the Tom Brady Kool-Aid.

Las Vegas bookmakers opened Dallas as a 3-point road favorite, and most shops are already down to -2.5. Professional money entered the market right away on the Bucs, and I expect that to continue through the weekend.

There’s a very strong possibility that Dallas closes -1 or -1.5 at kickoff Monday, which, of course, will lessen the price on Tampa’s moneyline.

Brady has never lost to Dallas (7-0 all-time), and fading Mike McCarthy is one of my favorite pastimes. Brady’s ability to rise above playoff pressure cannot be underestimated, and I expect the Bucs to play fast and throw the ball 45 times. Quick, precision throws are crucial against the Cowboys pass rush.

Don’t let me down, Tom.

PICK: Buccaneers (+115 moneyline at FOX Bet at time of pick) to win outright

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Insights from FOX Sports Betting Expert Warren Sharp:

The frustrations with the Bucs offense haven’t changed and likely will not change.

In addition to their run rate on first down, the Bucs use play action at the second-lowest rate in the NFL and yet have the third-biggest improvement when using play action of any team in the NFL.

With play action, Tom Brady ranks fourth in EPA/att, sixth in success rate has the NFL’s lowest sack/INT rate and the 10th best TD/INT rate.

Without play action, Brady falls to 17th in EPA/att, 20th in success rate.

Brady’s play-action rate (23%) ranks 44th out of 45 qualifying QBs.

Ironically, this might be a game to lower the play-action rate because the Cowboys defense ranks second in the NFL when teams use play action but ranks 26th when teams pass the ball without using play action.

And that ranking has only gotten worse.

Since Week 8, the Cowboys rank as the sixth-best pass defense against play action but the second-worst pass defense when teams do not use play action.

The Cowboys defense has also struggled playing games on grass this season.

They’ve played six games on grass this season:

Week 6 in Philadelphia
Week 10 in Green Bay
Week 15 in Jacksonville
Week 17 in Tennessee
Week 18 in Washington

They also played an outdoor road game in New York, which is artificial turf.

Here are their splits on grass vs. all other games:

Grass: 0.00 EPA/play, 41% success rate, 5.5 yds/play, +0.06 EPA/pass, 7.6 YPA, -0.05 EPA/rush, 4.6 YPC, 7.3% pressure rate
Turf: -0.12 EPA/play, 38% success rate, 4.9 yds/play, -0.07 EPA/pass, 6.6 YPA, -0.13 EPA/rush, 4.3 YPC, 9.1% pressure rate

Where does this rank?

0.00 EPA/play, as they have on grass, is the equivalent of ranking 19th, tied with the Texans.
-0.12 EPA/play, as they have on turf, is the equivalent of ranking first in the NFL

Their main area of improvement is against the pass. They get much more pressure and have better efficiency metrics.

Their EPA/pass of -0.07 on turf would rank third on the season, while their EPA/pass of +0.06 on grass would rank 23rd.

They shift from third-best to 10th-worst.

These metrics were suggested by Jason Garrett on the telecast last week. There also is the coincidence that these ranks are trailing off as the Cowboys defense has trailed off to close the season, so while there may be some truth to their performance on grass, we also know they’re playing much worse overall to close the year.

The final six weeks of the season, despite playing three offenses that rank bottom-five, including facing:

Week 18: rookie Sam Howell
Week 17: Josh Dobbs making his first NFL start
Week 16: backup Gardner Minshew
Week 15: Trevor Lawrence
Week 14: Davis Mills/Jeff Driskel
Week 13: Matt Ryan

The Cowboys pass defense allowed the ninth-highest rate of pass plays to gain 20-plus yards, and only the Titans allowed more pass plays of 20-plus yards.

This game is a tough one to peg, and while I think the oddsmakers got it right by making the Cowboys a favorite, I would look to tease the Bucs up and hope they aren’t doomed by terrible offensive coaching.

Are you ready to make an NFL bet? If so, head over to FOX Bet for all your wagers.

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