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NFL Week 9 Picks Against the Spread for Each Game

Updated Mar. 5, 2020 1:43 a.m. ET

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Oct 16, 2016; Miami Gardens, FL, USA; Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger (7) looks on in the game against the Miami Dolphins during the second half at Hard Rock Stadium. The Miami Dolphins defeat the Pittsburgh Steelers 30-15. Mandatory Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

Divisional rivalries and potential trap-games are everywhere, but the NFL Week 9 picks against the spread are coming nonetheless.

When you’re battling the NFL oddsmakers, there’s a phenomenon that occurs when you try to get too cute and be too cheeky with your picks. The usual result when you try and do this is that you get taken to the woodshed by the spreads. And that’s exactly what happened to me in Week 8. With huge games in the division all around the league this week, I’ll attempt to avoid those miscues with the NFL Week 9 picks against the spread.

I wish there were some way to justify some of the things I did last week, but there’s really not. Believing in both the Cleveland Browns and whoever’s playing the New England Patriots (the Buffalo Bills last week) is not a sound strategy. Yet, I did and my already ailing season-long record suffered.

Perhaps the good news in all of this, though, is the fact that I’ve already started my NFL Week 9 picks against the spread with a winner, riding the Atlanta Falcons to their big victory on Thursday Night Football:

Of course, I picked a winner in the Thursday game last week and, well, bad things were to follow. Can the NFL just play exclusively on Thursdays from here on out as I seem to have my best luck then? No; okay, just checking. They’re still playing on Sundays and Mondays and I’m still serving up my NFL Week 9 picks against the spread.

Week 8 Record ATS: 4-9 (Let’s forget this every happened)

2016 Record ATS (No Week 1 Picks): 45-56-3

Oct 25, 2015; Detroit, MI, USA; Detroit Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford (9) prepares to throw the ball during the second quarter against the Minnesota Vikings at Ford Field. Mandatory Credit: Tim Fuller-USA TODAY Sports

Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings (-6)

On the season as a whole, the Minnesota Vikings have been a far more consistent team than the Detroit Lions. You might even venture to say that they’re just downright better. However, I don’t know how you can come off of last week’s Monday Night Football loss to the Chicago Bears for Minnesota and feel confident about them. Even at home, I think this is a tight game that finishes with one team winning by a field goal.

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Pick: Lions +6

Jacksonville Jaguars at Kansas City Chiefs (-7)

You just know that the oddsmakers are begging you to take the Jacksonville Jaguars considering that the Kansas City Chiefs are starting Nick Foles in the place of the injured Alex Smith. I’m not falling for their tricks. Andy Reid’s offense could be run by the worst of quarterbacks with relative effectiveness. Foles isn’t good at his job, but he’s capable enough to lead the Cheifs to victory. The only thing to really even concern you should be Blake Bortles blowing the KC cover in garbage time.

Pick: Chiefs -7

New York Jets at Miami Dolphins (-3.5)

Frankly, the likelihood that the Miami Dolphins are as good as they looked heading into their Week 8 bye are somewhere in between slim and none. Jay Ajayi isn’t going to be the 200-yard man on a weekly basis. That said, I don’t think this New York Jets team is good by any measure. Sorry, but beating two bad teams in a row doesn’t inspire confidence. Give me Miami at home.

Pick: Dolphins -3.5

Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants (-2.5)

This is obviously a crucial NFC East matchup as both teams look to try and stay just two games behind the Dallas Cowboys. While the New York Giants are at home and coming off their bye, they still appear largely fraudulent at 4-3. Meanwhile, the Philadelphia Eagles could qualify as the best 4-3 team in the league right now. Philly can rush the passer with ferocity and the Giants can’t run the ball to save their lives. Subsequently, the Eagles defense should be able to disrupt the one-dimensional Eli-based offense of New York and pick up the win handily.

Pick: Eagles +2.5

Oct 1, 2015; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; Baltimore Ravens quarterback Joe Flacco (5) throws the ball under pressure from the Pittsburgh Steelers defense during the second half at Heinz Field. The Ravens won the game, 23-20 in overtime. Mandatory Credit: Jason Bridge-USA TODAY Sports

Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens (-2.5)

Despite many signs pointing to the fact that Ben Roethlisberger might return to the Pittsburgh Steelers for this huge AFC North matchup, the line doesn’t indicate that. I’m of the belief that Big Ben is not human when it comes to injuries and/or pain-tolerance, though, and he’ll be back for Week 9. Even if he wasn’t, my faith in the Baltimore Ravens is virtually non-existent at this point. This might be the easiest pick of the week (which probably means I’m going to blow it).

Pick: Steelers +2.5

Dallas Cowboys (-7) at Cleveland Browns

Given the records of these two teams, I truthfully expected the spread to be much larger than seven points. Even still, there are numerous pundits circling this matchup as a trap-game. There are signs of that with Corey Coleman returning and the Cowboys secondary limping into this game without Morris Claiborne and Barry Church. Even still, I don’t think the Browns can stop Dallas nor score with Dallas. Thus, I’ll gladly take the Cowboys by a touchdown on the road.

Pick: Cowboys -7

New Orleans Saints (-4) at San Francisco 49ers

Following one trap-game, we come to another. We know that the Drew Brees and the New Orleans Saints can put points on the board by the boatload. We also know that the San Francisco 49ers concede points by the boatload. That seems simple enough, right? Well, color me nervous about the Saints traveling west coming off a big win over the Seattle Seahawks. I’m still rolling with New Orleans because they’re the better team, but I have very little confidence.

Pick: Saints -4

Carolina Panthers (-3) at Los Angeles Rams

Apparently this crop of matchups is nothing but trap-games with another NFC South team on the road facing a bad NFC West team. The Carolina Panthers too are coming off a big and much-needed win last week while the Los Angeles Rams come off their bye. Though this too is risky, I think at least the Panthers front-seven has turned a corner and is about to give Case Keenum hell on Sunday. I think this one might be closer than some would imagine, but Carolina pulls out the win by a touchdown.

Pick: Panthers -3

Oct 27, 2016; Nashville, TN, USA; Tennessee Titans quarterback Marcus Mariota (8) hands the ball off to running back DeMarco Murray (29) in the first half against the Jacksonville Jaguars at Nissan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports

Tennessee Titans at San Diego Chargers (-4)

For several weeks, I’ve championed the San Diego Chargers as a good team that simply struggled to close out wins early on. However, I’m also of the belief that the Tennessee Titans have turned a corner as a young team and are on their way to winning the AFC South in 2016 now. One of the strengths of this Titans team is their offensive line, negating one of San Diego’s biggest strengths in their pass-rush. This one could be high-scoring, but I like Tennessee to control the game on the ground (be it with Demarco Murray or Derrick Henry) and win outright.

Pick: Titans +4

Indianapolis Colts at Green Bay Packers (-7)

For the purposes of this exercise, I’m going to include this in the NFL Week 9 picks, but this has stayaway written all over it. Both the Indianapolis Colts and Green Bay Packers have been rollercoasters this season in terms of their success. And while the Packers are the more complete team in this matchup, seeing them favored by a touchdown is disconcerting. Either way I go, this feels like a loss for me. But I’ll roll with Andrew Luck keeping things close and take the points.

Pick: Colts +7

Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders (-1)

The Denver Broncos and Oakland Raiders each enter this titanic Sunday Night Football matchup at 6-2. Subsequently, the winner walks away as the AFC West leaders. This is certainly a classic great offense (Raiders) vs great defense (Broncos) battle that should result in a quality contest. However, the Oakland defense has shown improvement over the past four weeks. With Trevor Siemian not inspiring much confidence and the Denver offensive line remaining problematic, I think that winds up being the deciding factor in primetime on Sunday.

Pick: Raiders -1

Buffalo Bills at Seattle Seahawks (-6.5)

With the struggles of the Seattle Seahawks offensive line and coming off of a bad Week 8 loss to New Orleans, this line is another begging me to take the points. After all, the Buffalo Bills have proven to be solid of late—when they aren’t coming face-to-face with Tom Brady and the juggernaut Patriots. However, Seattle is always a different team at CenturyLink field. Subsequently, I’m unconfidently taking Russell Wilson and Co. to bounce back and cover.

Pick: Seahawks -6.5

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