Arizona Cardinals

NFL Week 6: Survivor Pool Stone Cold Locks

Updated Mar. 4, 2020 2:24 p.m. ET

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Your Survivor Pool probably has a lot more room to swim after Week 5. If you want to stay afloat, check out the stone cold locks for NFL Week 6.

Hopefully you’ve been reading my stone cold locks for your survivor pool each week. Last week, I urged you to stay away from picking the Denver Broncos over the Atlanta Falcons and the Carolina Panthers over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Lo and behold, I was right. My record in Week 5 was a clean 3-0 as the Patriots, Vikings, and Steelers took care of business. That brings my season record to 13-2. Now onto NFL Week 6 to keep it rolling.

In Week 6, there’s only one game that might tempt you: the Seattle Seahawks over the Atlanta Falcons. Russell Wilson and the ‘Hawks are favored by six points at home. However, Hotlanta went into Denver and pulled off the upset, sacking Broncos starting quarterback Paxton Lynch six times. Vic Beasley had 3.5 of those sacks. While the Seahawks defense has fared better than the Broncos, Seattle’s offense has sputtered. Too big of a question mark given Seattle’s inconsistency and Atlanta’s hot streak.

Unlike the previous five weeks, we won’t have three options for you. Instead, we have five. That’s a third of the games on the schedule for the week!

On paper, this looks like a lopsided slate. I have utmost confidence in three of my “locks.” Two matchups will be pass-heavy while two others will see a ton of rushing attempts. And, I’d hate to be one of these teams because they’re essentially standing on the tracks when the train’s coming through.

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Pittsburgh Steelers over Miami Dolphins

Ben Roethlisberger, Antonio Brown, and the rest of Steel Town’s offense are sixth in points scored, third in the NFL in passing yards per game and tops in total passing touchdowns. That’s with a poor outing against the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 3. The Dolphins have an average pass defense allowing around 250 yards per game and eight passing touchdowns while totaling 10 sacks.

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After last week’s performance against the Tennessee Titans, the Dolphins run defense is now worst in the NFL in rushing yards allowed per game. Miami should expect to see a heavy dose of Le’Veon Bell, who has 332 yards from scrimmage in only two weeks. If he goes down, Pittsburgh might be in trouble as DeAngelo Williams is listed as questionable with an ankle injury.

Meanwhile, Arian Foster should return to Miami’s backfield after missing significant time due to injury. The Dolphins run offense is second worst in the NFL, averaging a little more than 70 rushing yards per game. Those numbers probably won’t budge as the Steelers allow the fifth fewest rushing yards average.

This would be a good game for the Dolphins to get their pass attack back on track after putting up below average numbers to start the season. Head coach Adam Gase fielded questions about benching his starting quarterback Ryan Tannehill and this is the opportunity for the converted-receiver to eradicate those questions. The Pittsburgh pass defense has allowed the third most yards per game. If the Phins can’t throw against this D, then it’s time to tear it all down.

The Steelers are favored by 7 points on the road.

Sep 25, 2016; Orchard Park, NY, USA; Buffalo Bills running back LeSean McCoy (25) reacts after a touchdown during the first half against the Arizona Cardinals at New Era Field. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Hoffman-USA TODAY Sports

Buffalo Bills over San Francisco 49ers

After an unflattering 0-2 start to the season, the Bills upset the Cardinals, blanked the Patriots in New England, and looked dominant against the wildly mysterious Los Angeles Rams. Buffalo has been successful on the ground, averaging the third highest rushing yards gained per game in the league while the 49ers have allowed the second most rushing yards per contest. LeSean McCoy, the NFL’s fourth leading rusher, should have another stellar outing.

McCoy will need to have a big game because the Buffalo pass offense has been the worst in the league in generating yardage. The second worst has been San Francisco. While Tyrod Taylor is firmly entrenched as Buffalo’s starter, 49ers head coach Chip Kelly decided to bench former starter Blaine Gabbert in favor of a much lighter Colin Kaepernick. Can Kap tap into his old self?

The answer might lie in the Niners’ running game, which is in the top 10 league-wide. Carlos Hyde is eighth in the NFL in rushing yards with 377 and if Kap can make the Bills commit to Hyde on the option, he could have a big day. The problem is Buffalo has an above average run defense that contributes the third most expected points in the league.

The Bills are favored by 8 points at home.

Oct 9, 2016; Miami Gardens, FL, USA; Tennessee Titans running back DeMarco Murray (29) warms up before the game against the Miami Dolphins during the first half at Hard Rock Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

Tennessee Titans over Cleveland Browns

As I mentioned in the write-up for the Steelers pick over the Dolphins, Tennessee ran all over Miami, racking up 235 yards on the ground. Cleveland’s run defense is better than Miami’s, but has still been below average. The Titans now average the second most rushing yards per game as DeMarco Murray is the second leading rusher behind Ezekiel Elliott.

Cleveland’s pass defense has given up the second most touchdowns in the NFL, which should help a Titans pass offense that has averaged the fifth fewest passing yards per game. With the Browns so focused on stopping Murray, Marcus Mariota should be able to pick up big chunks of yardage through the air on play-action.

The Titans pass defense has only allowed four touchdowns over the first five weeks and Cleveland’s quarterback situation continues to be a mess. Week 5 starter Charlie Whitehurst has been released. Cody Kessler, who left last week’s game, is expected to start. Former starter Josh McCown believes he’s healthy enough to play, but is still listed as questionable. Robert Griffin III is out until Nov. 6. Former Stanford standout Kevin Hogan was promoted from the practice squad. That kind of instability and inconsistency at such a crucial position will continue to doom Cleveland this week and the rest of their existence.

The Titans are favored by 7 points at home.

Oct 9, 2016; Cleveland, OH, USA; New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady (12) reacts during the fourth quarter against the Cleveland Browns at FirstEnergy Stadium. The Patriots won 33-13. Mandatory Credit: Scott R. Galvin-USA TODAY Sports

New England Patriots over Cincinnati Bengals

Tom Brady said he felt rusty in New England’s blowout win over the Browns. He completed 70 percent of his passes for 406 yards and three touchdowns to earn a quarterback rating of 127.7. That’s scary. Tom’s ticked. An angry Brady is a near-unstoppable Brady. Against Cincinnati, Touchdown Tom is 5-1 with a 101+ rating, averaging 238 yards and two touchdowns per game. Given Cincy’s current defense, those numbers should be even better in Week 6.

Though this year’s Bengals pass defense has allowed fewer yards per game than Brady’s average against them, Cincy has given up 11 passing touchdowns, sixth most in the NFL. Martellus Bennett leads the team in receiving yards and his tight end friend Rob Gronkowski appears to be back to his old form. Chris Hogan has flashed promise while Julian Edelman has struggled with his nagging foot injury and James White has emerged as a dependable pass-catching back. Brady’s arsenal appears fully loaded.

Cincinnati’s run defense is below average and the Pats normally would be able to take advantage of that, however, New England’s banged up at running back. LeGarrette Blount is listed as questionable with a hip injury and might not suit up while Brandon Bolden’s knee injury could hold him out another week. Be prepared for a lot of James White, James White, James White.

On offense, the Bengals average the fifth most passing yards per game, but have allowed the second most sacks league-wide, tied with the Miami Dolphins. New England has nine sacks so far, but could dial up the pressure against Andy Dalton. If Cincy wants to stay competitive, they’ll need to protect the Red Rocket because running the ball won’t work. The Pats run defense a little more than 86 rushing yards per game and two touchdowns, which is tied for third least.

The Patriots are favored by 9 points at home.

Aug 19, 2016; San Diego, CA, USA; Arizona Cardinals running back David Johnson (31) runs the ball during the first quarter against the San Diego Chargers at Qualcomm Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports

Arizona Cardinals over New York Jets

The Cards squeaked out an ugly win against the 49ers on Thursday Night Football with backup Drew Stanton completing only 39 percent of his attempts. Fortunately for Arizona, David Johnson ran for almost 160 yards on fewer than 30 carries. In Week 6, Carson Palmer returns after passing through the league’s concussion protocol, looking to carve up an atrocious Jets defense.

Gang Green’s pass defense has allowed the third most passing touchdowns, second most passing yards per game, and the highest quarterback rating in the NFL. One upside for New York is they do have 12 sacks through five weeks and the Cardinals have allowed 13 sacks, tied for 5th most in the league. Arizona quarterbacks also have a quarterback rating of 74, which is fourth worst league-wide. The Jets will have to get to a very immobile Palmer to keep this game close. However, Sheldon Richardson and Darrelle Revis are both listed as questionable.

Another key for New York’s defense is to stop David Johnson and judging by their numbers thus far, they might be able to pull it off, even without Richardson. Arizona’s ground game is above average, but the Jets have allowed the second fewest rushing yards and yards per attempt per game. They’ve also only given up one score.

Ryan Fitzpatrick has the lowest quarterback rating in the league and the Cardinals pass defense has 18 sacks (second most in NFL) and allows the fourth fewest passing yards per game. Eric Decker is out for the season, which leaves Quincy Enunwa as the second receiver on the depth chart and not much behind him. Fitz will most likely lean on his backs Matt Forte and Bilal Powell as new acquisition tight end Austin Sefarian-Jenkins is questionable with an ankle injury.

The Cards are susceptible to the run, so if the Jets want to keep pace, they’ll have to pound the pigskin with Forte and Powell. If the Redbirds had to travel to East Rutherford, maybe the Jets have a shot, but in Arizona, the Cards should secure a narrow victory.

The Cardinals are favored by 8 points at home. Take the Jets on the spread!

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