Kansas City Chiefs

NFL Week 1: Stone Cold Locks For Your Survivor Pool

Published Jun. 30, 2017 6:28 p.m. ET

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NFL Week 1 is upon us and if you’re in a survivor pool, you’re looking for some surefire, stone cold locks to keep you alive. We’ve got you covered.

There are plenty of games to stay away from in Week 1. The Los Angeles Rams are favored by one point in San Francisco. The New Orleans Saints are only favored by one at home against the upstart Oakland Raiders. Meanwhile, the Minnesota Vikings, with newly acquired Sam Bradford at quarterback, are favored by 2.5 to three points in Tennessee. These are contests you can easily pass over.

That said, there are a few matchups that look like solid picks when considering the betting lines from Vegas. The Texans giving six to the Chicago Bears in Houston? Eh, not so fast. The Bears vastly improved on defense over the offseason and though they parted way with long-time back Matt Forte, they got Kevin White back and Jeremy Langford could be a breakout player.

Green Bay giving five to 5.5 points to the Jaguars in Jacksonville? That line would make a lot more sense in Lambeau. The Jags are on the precipice of being a contender and could surprise some people in the season opener. Too risky.

So, which teams are locks for the season kickoff? Check out these picks.

Arizona Cardinals over New England Patriots

With the game in Arizona and Jimmy Garoppolo starting at quarterback for the Pats, the Cards are probably chewing their beaks off to get on the field. They desperately want to wash away memories of the NFC Championship Game against the Carolina Panthers last postseason.

Can New England rely on Jimmy’s arm when the run gets shut down? The Cards had a top-10 run defense and a bend-but-don’t-break pass defense in 2015, having allowed the fifth-fewest total yards and fourth-fewest first downs, all while forcing the second most turnovers in the league.

In the offseason, Arizona further bolstered the defensive side of the ball by opting for defenders with four of their six draft picks and acquiring top talent via trade and free agency. For their efforts, Pro Football Focus gave ‘Zona a B+ while NFL.com assigned them an ‘A’ grade after bringing in Patriots pass rusher Chandler Jones via trade and signing former Chiefs safety Tyvon Branch.

Right now, the Cards are favored by six points, the second biggest spread in Week 1.

Kansas City Chiefs over San Diego Chargers

Kansas City signed former Cleveland Browns tackle Mitchell Schwartz and extended other starting tackle Eric Fisher. They also drafted guard Parker Ehinger who will start on the left side.

While the Chiefs are deep at running back with Jamaal Charles (once he returns), Spencer Ware, Charcandrick West, and Knile Davis, they’re sparse in the passing game. KC was first in the league in rushing touchdowns and third in rushing yards per attempt in 2015, but they were 30th in passing yards and 26 in passing touchdowns overall.

Tight end Travis Kelce and wide receiver Jeremy Maclin are the only proven receiving threats, as second-year man Chris Conley will be the starter opposite J-Mac and draft picks Tyreek Hill and DeMarcus Robinson try to work their way up the depth chart.

Meanwhile, the Chargers already have a dozen players on injured reserve, and newly signed first round draft pick Joey Bosa—who missed the majority of the preseason—is doubtful for the season opener. San Diego has almost no running game, and though they’re passing game puts up yards, points is a different story. Add in that the game is in Arrowhead and the Chargers are in trouble.

The Chiefs are favored by 6.5-7 points in most betting lines.

Seattle Seahawks over Miami Dolphins

This could get out of hand quick. First of all, it’s in Seattle—one of the toughest places to play in the NFL. Secondly, the Seahawks defense allowed the fewest points, the second fewest total yards, and the fewest rushing yards in the league last season. Sure, that unit lost starting linebacker Bruce Irvin and D-tackle Brandon Mebane, but the Pro Bowlers that propelled them over the past few years are still a dominant force.

The ‘Hawks have one of the premier mobile quarterbacks in NFL history in Russell WIlson. Although the running game lost Marshawn Lynch, and Thomas Rawls is easing back into the fold with his ankle injury, Russell Wilson is the difference maker.

On the other side, the Dolphins didn’t rank well in any major statistical category last year, unless you count fewest fumbles lost, in which case, they were ranked second in the NFL.

Miami’s draft focused on the offense as they selected Ole Miss tackle Laremy Tunsil, who should start at left guard. Free agency brought in former Bears and Saints O-lineman Jermon Bushrod to start at right guard, along with former Texans Pro Bowler Arian Foster to handle the load at running back.

On defense, the Fins landed starters Mario Williams, Andre Branch, Isa Abdul-Quddus, Reshad Jones, Byron Maxwell, and Kiko Alonso through free agency and trades after losing Derrick Shelby, Olivier Vernon, Kelvin Sheppard, and four-time Pro Bowler Brent Grimes.

The line in Vegas has the Seahawks by 10 points or more. Had this been later in the season, maybe Miami has a better shot. But first game out the gate? Ouch.