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NFL Predictions: Week 7 Picks and Hot Takes From Around the NFL

Published Jun. 30, 2017 6:28 p.m. ET

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We’re back with NFL picks, week seven edition here at NFL Mocks. As always, you can find full NFL news and NFL predictions here on the site, as well as newsy notes on both college football and the NFL Draft. You can follow the site on Twitter @NFLMocks, and the author @JoeWedra.

Isn’t it amazing that in the midst of perhaps the best MLB postseason series of this decade, the NFL still crushes baseball in ratings? There’s been so much talk about the ratings decline in Roger Goodell’s league, but the numbers for even the worst primetime matchups still far exceed the MLB’s viewership during the most exciting part of their season.

We can talk about the slight dip in TV numbers, but there’s no doubt that the league is doing just fine when it comes to revenue.

And I know this is a picks column – and we’ll get to those in a second. But have the folks in the NFL ratings conversation considered the sheer number of outlets where fans get game information and playback from? Personally as a fan, there are so many ways for me to be able to keep up with the NFL that I don’t need to turn my TV to ESPN or NFL Network to watch these games.

I can play it back on NFL Game Rewind (in 30-45 minutes) the next morning while I’m drinking my coffee. I can keep up with play-by-play on the phone (while watching the MLB playoffs or, gasp, the debates) and watch full video highlights as soon as the clock hits zero and read as much as I want about these games without watching a single snap.

Sure, for most of us loyal NFL die-hards, we want to watch the action as it unfolds. And for a large section of the viewing audience, that’ll never change.

However, the casual fan has plenty of options these days instead of merely tuning into the network for three and a half hours and watching the game from start to finish. It’s not a bad thing for the brand of the NFL – and while the viewership numbers might be down, I’ll be willing to bet that the league’s popularity is still near an all-time high.

Anyway, sorry for the prolonged introduction (if you can even call it that). I only write one column here per week … I’ve gotta get my hot takes in somewhere.

Onward with the predictions, with a slight twist in the style this week, for Week 7 of the 2016 NFL season.

Jan 3, 2016; Chicago, IL, USA; Chicago Bears general manager Ryan Pace before the game against the Detroit Lions at Soldier Field. Mandatory Credit: Matt Marton-USA TODAY Sports

Chicago Bears vs. Green Bay Packers, 8:25 p.m. ET on Thursday, NFLN/Twitter

The Bears win if…

The defense can find a way to keep the Packers off-balance and puzzled from the start.

This Green Bay offense has been far from in-sync, and it’s beginning to appear slightly concerning from an outsider’s perspective. On a short week, it’s difficult to imagine that Aaron Rodgers and Co. can pull off a complete 180-degree shift in direction to revert back to their brilliance in the passing game. Eddie Lacy won’t be available – if Chicago can effectively pressure Rodgers and keep matchups on the outside tight, there’s a chance to grab a win at Lambeau.

The Packers win if…

They don’t panic.

It’s doom and gloom from the national media’s perspective, but those who follow the Packers close know that there’s reason for optimism around town. Even without Eddie Lacy, this offense is among the most talented in the NFL. For whatever reason, things just haven’t been clicking – and on a short week, moving the train in the right direction might be difficult. Luckily here, the game plan can be vanilla and simple. The Bears are who we thought they were (sorry, Chicago readers). As long as there isn’t a widespread panicked mindset heading into this week, Green Bay should find themselves in a good position to feed off the home crowd and cruise to a win.

Packers get back in the win column with short week win over Chicago, 24-16.

May 6, 2016; Oxnard, CA, USA; Los Angeles Rams quarterback Jared Goff (16) during rookie minicamp at River Ridge Fields. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports

New York Giants vs. Los Angeles Rams, 9:30 a.m. ET on Sunday, FOX

The Giants win if…

They build on last week’s performance against the Ravens.

Eli Manning tossed for over 400 yards by sticking true with what works – exploiting matchups on the outside with Odell Beckham Jr. doing his thing to opposing defensive backs. Who cares what he’s doing with the kicking net on the sidelines? Between them, when given the opportunities, he’ll make the big plays that break open the game. L.A. and Case Keenum shouldn’t be a massive force to battle against on their side. Even sans a legitimate rushing attack, the Giants can win with sheer firepower in the passing game. Protect Eli, win the game – it’s that simple.

The Rams win if…

Their defensive front becomes pesky enough to pressure Manning into poor throws in tight windows.

The Giants rushing attack won’t scare L.A. during game-planning this week, creating opportunities for Gregg Williams to potentially get creative with his blitz packages against NYG’s offensive line. As it seems most games in London tend to be, this game will be scrappy and heavily dependent on which squad wins in the trenches. If pressure can be applied early and often to keep Eli on his back foot, the Rams can realistically head home 4-3 entering into their bye week.

Rams stifle the one-dimensional Giants, win in London, 22-21.

Oct 2, 2016; Landover, MD, USA; Cleveland Browns quarterback Cody Kessler (6) prepares to throw the ball as Washington Redskins defensive end Trent Murphy (93) chases in the second quarter at FedEx Field. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports

Cleveland Browns vs. Cincinnati Bengals, 1:00 p.m. ET on Sunday, CBS

The Browns win if…

Everything goes right on Sunday.

And by everything, I do mean everything. The ole “any given Sunday” adage definitely still holds true in today’s NFL – but with the modern-day Browns, that phrase tends to apply in a rather negative context week after week… after week. If the defense is able to keep Cincinnati at bay and force a tight game at halftime, there’s a chance for a wild ending to swing in Cleveland’s direction. But with all due respect, do any of us envision a Cleveland road win here?

The Bengals win if…

Andy Dalton and the offense doesn’t make the crucial late-game mistakes.

In this matchup, the only opportunity Cleveland has to keep it close revolves around their defense and its ability to create havoc in the third and fourth quarters. These AFC North games tend to be on the unpredictable side, especially this year in which all four AFC North squads come with attached question marks every week. Cincinnati is the better team, top to bottom. As long as they keep it simple and don’t make the lethal mistake(s) late in the game, they should have no problem cruising to a dub on Sunday.

Bengals collect statement win at home against Browns, win 28-14.

Oct 2, 2016; Landover, MD, USA; Washington Redskins head coach Jay Gruden looks on from the sidelines against the Cleveland Browns in the fourth quarter at FedEx Field. The Redskins won 31-20. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports

Washington Redskins vs. Detroit Lions, 1:00 p.m. ET on Sunday, FOX

The Redskins win if…

The rushing game gets going early and often.

Quietly, Washington has built a very formidable squad as we approach the halfway mark of the year. They’re not the flashiest bunch in the league, but there’s no arguing that their style of football is largely equated to the recipe to winning games in the NFL. Matt Jones is blossoming into what his potential says he can be, seemingly improving by the week. If the Redskins can establish the run in the first quarter to dominate time of possession, their defense has plenty of prowess to lead them to a road victory in Detroit.

The Lions win if…

They can create plays in space on offense and tighten up the middle of their defense.

Unfortunately for Detroit, they run into a Redskins team this weekend that will attack them from multiple angles. Washington can do a little bit of everything on both sides, which makes them a hearty threat not only in this one, but as the season progresses. For the Lions to pick up the win, it’ll take a group effort that sees Jim Bob Cooter dialing up creative schemes on one side, while leaders on defense continue to develop and mesh together to have their best game of the season. On paper, the Lions are at the disadvantage – but a win here isn’t totally out of the conversation, especially at home.

Redskins continue to cruise led by Matt Jones, take down Detroit, 23-20.

Oct 2, 2016; London, United Kingdom; Jacksonville Jaguars mascot Jaxson de Ville poses with a flag during game 15 of the NFL International Series against the Indianapolis Colts at Wembley Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Oakland Raiders vs. Jacksonville Jaguars, 1:00 p.m. ET on Sunday, CBS

The Raiders win if…

Derek Carr does Derek Carr things in their potential-filled offensive attack.

Ultimately, this analysis seems fairly simple from the outside. By all means, the Oakland passing attack can be as lethal as they want to be, surely able to outscore Blake Bortles’ group on the other side. The Raiders haven’t been perfect, but what else do you expect from a young, developing team with little experience in big moments. Jack Del Rio and his staff understands what they have to throw at opposing defenses on a weekly basis. As of now, Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree might combine to be the best WR duo in the league. There’s no reason to believe Carr can’t have his way on Sunday, even against an above-average Jaguars defensive backfield.

The Jaguars win if…

The secondary can effectively quiet the duo of Crabtree/Cooper.

Another easy route to victory, eh? The line on this game is practically a pick’em, which speaks well to the fact that both of these teams have severe levels of unknown as a whole. Especially in Jacksonville’s case, it’s difficult to predict which team will show up on any given Sunday – the fiery Gus Bradley winners, or the struggling Jaguars that we’ve come to know. Sometimes it truly is as clear-cut as one positional matchup deciding a game. If the Jags can keep Crabtree/Cooper within the average range, they’ll be OK. However, that’s easier said than done against an offense that, when on, can be more than deadly in the passing game.

Raiders travel to Jacksonville and pick up the road win, beat Jaguars, 27-21.

Oct 4, 2015; Cincinnati, OH, USA; Kansas City Chiefs head coach Andy Reid reacts from the sidelines in the second half against the Cincinnati Bengals at Paul Brown Stadium. The Bengals won 36-21. Mandatory Credit: Aaron Doster-USA TODAY Sports

New Orleans Saints vs. Kansas City Chiefs, 1:00 p.m. ET on Sunday, FOX

The Saints win if…

Drew Brees and the offense can utilize their prolific offensive ability.

We might not know the true identity of the Saints, or if they even have one. What is for certain though is evident – they know how to put points on the board. Andy Reid’s staff will put together a nice gameplan, but it’s admittedly difficult to defend against the well-oiled machine that Brees has led for so long in New Orleans. If their fireworks show up here on the road, taking down Reid’s Chiefs shouldn’t prove to be a difficult task.

The Chiefs win if…

An offense with an opportunity combines with tight DB coverage to capture the win.

First, it’s clear that Kansas City is going to have to go above and beyond their weekly offensive production to pull off a victory here. That’s not going to be a contested argument. But other than Spencer Ware continuing his dominance on offense, it’s time for the Chiefs secondary to show up in a big game and prove that they’re a key component to a postseason-bound team. In the wide-open AFC, there’s no reason that Kansas City can’t contend for a top spot in the conference. But in order to be inserted into the conversation as a top threat, it’s imperative that the defensive backfield comes alive against legitimate offenses like the one the Saints possess.

Chiefs wrangle a late win against the Saints, take down New Orleans, 33-31.

Sep 11, 2016; Baltimore, MD, USA; Buffalo Bills head coach Rex Ryan (R) and defensive coordinator Rob Ryan (L) call a play in during the fourth quarter against the Baltimore Ravens at M&T Bank Stadium. The Ravens won 13-7. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins, 1:00 p.m. ET on Sunday, CBS

The Bills win if…

The offense can build a productive, well-rounded performance on offense.

There’s little doubt that the Buffalo defense is capable of finding ways to stop Ryan Tannehill and the Dolphins offense on Sunday – ultimately, the storyline here revolves around how well the Bills can build their offensive game plan this week. Despite the win against the Steelers, it’s hard to buy into Miami as a whole. Just when you think they’ve figured it out, they fall flat and underscore the fact that their inconsistencies are too substantial to overlook. The Bills have talent; if they use it effectively, they can pull off this win on the road. Not having LeSean McCoy will be a big loss.

The Dolphins win if…

The Jay Ajayi show continues to entertain.

Whether you’re a skeptic of Ajayi’s role in this offense moving ahead or not, you must admit that it was a treat to watch him finally blossom at this level. Miami has desperately yearned for a legitimate, consistent threat in the run game and it’s safe to say Ajayi’s emergence as “that guy” would be quite welcomed. If he puts on another clinic this week against a hefty Buffalo front-seven, it’s hard to imagine a situation in which Miami doesn’t end up picking up the victory at home.

Bills create plays to take win back home to Buffalo, beat Dolphins, 21-17.

Aug 11, 2016; East Rutherford, NJ, USA; New York Jets quarterback Geno Smith (7) and quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick (14) during the second half of the preseason game against the Jacksonville Jaguars at MetLife Stadium. The Jets won, 17-23. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports

Baltimore Ravens vs. New York Jets, 1:00 p.m. ET on Sunday, CBS

The Ravens win if…

The defense creates turnovers against Geno Smith.

Whether it’ll be Ryan Mallett or Joe Flacco under center, this one should revolve around how effectively Dean Pees’ defense is able to create opportunities against Smith. You’d imagine that the Ravens have an optimistic mindset going in, knowing they won’t have to deal with a passing threat that Ryan Fitzpatrick, when firing on all cylinders, can pose. Smith’s abilities are known – if the Baltimore defense continues to perform on par with what they’ve shown through the first six games, they should be a lock on Sunday.

The Jets win if…

They can effectively apply enough pressure to make Baltimore one-dimensional.

In the case of both Mallett and Flacco (or any other quarterback, for that matter), constant pressure will completely destroy the offense’s game plan. The Ravens don’t have too many game-breakers on that offense, and it’s very clear that the Jets have the capability to make the QB’s day a nightmare every week. If the NYJ front-seven steps up and gets their shots on Flacco/Mallett early and often, Baltimore’s rushing attack likely won’t be enough to fight back for a win.

Ravens win a tight game against Jets, 24-21.

Aug 11, 2016; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Carson Wentz (11) throws a pass against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during the third quarter at Lincoln Financial Field. Mandatory Credit: Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports

Minnesota Vikings at Philadelphia Eagles, 1:00 p.m. ET Sunday, FOX

The Vikings win if…

Their defense has yet another well-rounded performance.

Though they’re on the road, the Vikings should be heavily favored against the hyped-up Eagles. Philadelphia might be well on their way to success with Carson Wentz under center, but the wrinkles still exist to keep them from the top-tier in the NFC. Lost in Minnesota’s 5-0 start is the sheer brilliance of Mike Zimmer’s defense, which is turning in brilliant defensive performances week after week. Rested up with 6-0 on the horizon, the Vikings have a fantastic shot at traveling to Philly and knocking off the Eagles.

The Eagles win if…

The running game allows them to win the time of possession game.

Praise the Vikings all you’d like, but the offense still isn’t exactly at elite status. They’re ranked 30th in the league in yards per game – and while it’s a myth that you need a high-powered attack to be a Super Bowl contender, it still hurts in the grand scheme of things. It’ll be a tough task, but if the Eagles can find a reliable back in their arsenal and manage to eat yardage through the ground, Sunday could turn into an enjoyable afternoon. Carson Wentz can only do so much; against this defense, establishing the run – albeit a difficult task – will be necessary.

Vikings improve to 6-0 with win over the Eagles, 24-19.

Oct 2, 2016; Houston, TX, USA; Tennessee Titans head coach Mike Mularkey (left) speaks with quarterback Marcus Mariota (8) before the game against the Houston Texans at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

Indianapolis Colts vs. Tennessee Titans, 1:00 p.m. ET on Sunday, CBS

The Colts win if…

They play the way they did in the first quarter on Sunday Night Football last weekend.

It’s disappointing to see Andrew Luck’s talent being squandered by sub-par team efforts on a weekly basis. Chuck Pagano is still a phenomenal football mind and Luck is still very much a Pro Bowl-caliber QB. Unfortunately, the guys around the top threats on Indy’s roster don’t offer much of a legitimate threat to win games, especially late. You saw flashes of hope last weekend in primetime – this week, dominance across the board will need to happen over the course of all four quarters.

The Titans win if…

The offense continues to make strides.

Marcus Mariota is steadily improving week to week in the NFL, blossoming into a very real pro threat under center. The Tennessee offense is just outside the NFL’s top-10 in total yards, and sit second in the AFC in third-down conversion percentage behind just Pittsburgh. At 3-3, this team is quietly playing some fun football. Should the defense knock Indy’s offense around just enough, we might just see the Titans jump to 4-3 after week 7 is over, setting up a Thursday Night Football game against the Jaguars on the 27th that sees an opportunity to start the year 5-3. Playoff sleeper of the year, anyone?

Titans get the job done at home against Colts, win 28-24.

Nov 1, 2015; Atlanta, GA, USA; Atlanta Falcons wide receiver Julio Jones (11) is shown before their game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Georgia Dome. Mandatory Credit: Jason Getz-USA TODAY Sports

San Diego Chargers vs. Atlanta Falcons, 4:05 p.m. ET on Sunday, FOX

The Chargers win if…

Philip Rivers can keep the train moving in the right direction.

Say what you’d like about the Chargers, but there might be nobody in the league I root for more than Rivers. His fire and passion for the game of football is unmatched. Every week, he’s going out on the field with the belief that his team has the chance to shock the world and beat even the toughest opponent there is to offer. He doesn’t care who lines up against him, he only focuses on going out there for his guys and playing winning football. With that said, if San Diego’s defense merely keep their squad in the game with a chance for Rivers to take over in the second half, there should be no doubt that he’ll do just that, even with a depleted arsenal.

The Falcons win if…

Their capability on offense is simply too much for the Chargers to counter.

Unfortunately for San Diego fans, their team enters Atlanta this week with a matchup that not many in the league would be willing to sign up for. Matt Ryan and his band of exciting playmakers have been just that throughout 2016, currently leading the NFL in yards per game. The threats available to Ryan are as impressive as ever – as long as an unforeseen roadblock doesn’t get in their way, it’s difficult to picture the Chargers defense being the group that stops them in their tracks.

Falcons light fireworks on offense yet again, beat Chargers, 31-24.

October 6, 2016; Santa Clara, CA, USA; San Francisco 49ers quarterback Colin Kaepernick (7) passes the football before the game against the Arizona Cardinals at Levi

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. San Francisco 49ers, 4:25 p.m. ET on Sunday, FOX

The Buccaneers win if…

The defense can effectively keep Colin Kaepernick in the pocket.

Though the results have been muddied, we all understand what the Tampa Bay offense can offer on any given weekend. They won’t consistently mow down opposing defenses, but their capability to put up points is unquestioned. Here, the game revolves around what Mike Smith can implement into the game plan during the week to keep Kaepernick in a position where he can’t beat the Bucs – in the pocket. Throughout his career, both in college and the NFL, there have been few instances in which Kaep torches secondaries through the air with a flashy passing attack. If Tampa puts their efforts on spying the quarterback and being smart with pass rush, the secondary won’t give up the game.

The 49ers win if…

Their defense performs at an elite level against the pass.

The critics have and will continue to spotlight on the quarterback play in San Francisco as the root of the team’s glaring overall problem. And while that might be fair, the defense and their play shouldn’t be let off the hook despite flashy storylines on the other side of the football. The 49ers defensive group has been poor – there’s no other way to put it. If they don’t shape up soon, jobs aren’t going to be kept through the year. With the offense’s woes, the only way San Francisco eeks out a win here will be through a major step forward on their most troubled side of the football.

Buccaneers travel to San Francisco and knock off 49ers, 26-20.

Oct 9, 2016; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Landry Jones (3) warms up on the sidelines against the New York Jets during the third quarter at Heinz Field. The Steelers won 31-13. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

New England Patriots vs. Pittsburgh Steelers, 4:25 p.m. ET on Sunday, CBS

The Patriots win if….

They don’t allow Landry Jones to carve up the secondary.

Bill Belichick must’ve smiled from ear to ear (a rare occurrence) upon hearing the news of Ben Roethlisberger’s upcoming absence this Sunday. The Patriots were largely projected to win this game on the road anyway, so taking away Pittsburgh’s chief threat makes this game that much of an easier pick. Barring Jones turning into Superman and tossing for 350-400 yards, there’s little chance that the Patriots waste away this golden opportunity. Belichick is the game’s best – are we really buying that he’s going to have his team fall to Landry Jones?

The Steelers win if…

The offense finds a way to hardly miss a beat sans Roethlisberger.

Pittsburgh’s key revolves around the same, simple storyline that this game centers around. Ultimately, the threats that the Steelers possess on offense will continue to be potential sparks that help lead to a potential win here – that aspect of the game plan doesn’t change. Jones has shown flashes of brilliance in the past; and while he isn’t Roethlisberger, there’s a chance he receives enough protection on Sunday to have the opportunity to sling the ball across the field. If that’s the case, there’s a chance we see a surprise in this one.

Patriots rough up Landry Jones, Belichick and Co. take home win, 31-20.

Jan 17, 2016; Charlotte, NC, USA; Seattle Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson (3) carries the ball against the Carolina Panthers in the second quarter during the NFC Divisional round playoff game at Bank of America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports

Seattle Seahawks vs. Arizona Cardinals, 8:30 p.m. ET on Sunday, NBC

The Seahawks win if…

Their vicious defense can live up to expectations.

In another season, Seattle’s defense has been brilliant through the early portion of the season. And although last week’s test against the Falcons was the first “legitimate” offense they’ve battled in 2016, they again did enough to (pass interference or not) to take home a win and set the team up beautifully for the mid-season stretch. This week, on the road in Arizona, the challenge gets turned up another notch or two. If this unit can find a way to perform as the league’s best for the second week in a row against top-tier offenses, cruising to the postseason shouldn’t prove to be a difficult task.

The Cardinals win if…

David Johnson’s game-breaking ability strikes again.

There might not be anybody in the NFL who is more enjoyable to watch than Johnson. He’s by all means a fantastic person and a better football player who changes the game when he steps onto the field. Arizona found a gem, and it’s safe to say they won’t be under-utilizing him any time soon. This week, the offense’s ability to be well-rounded and unpredictable will be the ultimate edge. With Johnson able to carry the load in both aspects of the game plan, expect a heavy dose of touches that could thrust him into the MVP candidate category.

Cardinals claw their way to a win in primetime at home, knock off Seattle, 21-20.

Oct 9, 2016; Minneapolis, MN, USA; Minnesota Vikings defensive end Brian Robison (96) sacks Houston Texans quarterback Brock Osweiler (17) in the fourth quarter at U.S. Bank Stadium. The Vikings win 31-13. Mandatory Credit: Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports

Houston Texans vs. Denver Broncos, 8:30 p.m. ET on Sunday, ESPN

The Texans win if…

Brock Osweiler and the passing game is able to open up with aggressiveness.

There’s no avoiding the fact that the Texans offensive attack hasn’t exactly been lethal. Now, that’s not to say that they need to be even in the top-half of the league’s passing production rates to succeed this season, rather if they want to win games against defenses like Denver’s, they’ll need to throw the ball to win. What’s there to gain by sticking with a vanilla plan on Monday night? It’s time for Houston to take calculated shots downfield and prove that Osweiler can, indeed, push the ball down the field and gain big chunks when it is needed.

The Broncos win if…

The pass rush and defensive front is disruptive.

Though the offense might not be among the league’s top gainers, there’s still little doubt this Broncos defense can produce enough to lead Denver to a postseason berth. In this game, that basic idea is a simple storyline. The Houston offense is exploitable and prone to mistakes when pressed. For the Denver front-seven, disruption at the point of attack should be enough to put the team over the top on Monday night. Win in the trenches, win the game.

Broncos topple Texans on Monday Night Football, 17-13.