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NFL Predictions: Week 3 Picks and Hot Takes

Published Jun. 30, 2017 6:28 p.m. ET

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We’re back with another edition of NFL predictions, this time with picks for all of week three’s action. Bye weeks don’t go into effect until next week, which means another fresh batch of 16 games to dissect and preview. As always follow us on Twitter @NFLMocks and follow Joe Wedra @JoeWedra. Enjoy the column!

Well, the streak is alive. 10-6 was last week’s record, not incredibly terrible after an 11-5 week one performance to kick off the season. Sure, I’d like to have some of those picks back, but who could’ve predicted the wild Sunday that was?

Oakland, losing to Atlanta?

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The Rams, knocking off Seattle in a 9-3 old-school fist fight?

And what about that Giants/Saints game? How did neither of those teams score more than 16 points?

It was a typical NFL Sunday, and it’s safe to say we wouldn’t want to have it any other way. Heck, for a “blogger who doesn’t know a thing about football” (which I’ve been called a time or ten-thousand), two straight weeks with double-digit wins isn’t something you’ll find me complaining about.

In reality and complete and total honesty, I’m more focused on Orioles September baseball than anything else right now. One look at my Twitter timeline and you’ll get the idea. I wish we could push back the NFL season until November so I can bask in O’s victories with a plate of crabcakes in front of me. I love football, but something special is going with the Birds of Baltimore.

(Yeah, I know, this is a football website. But let me have my moment, eh?)

On to the predictions. Again, refrain from the aforementioned comments in the section below. I’m not an expert. I don’t claim to be an expert. Perhaps about the intricate details about Maryland crabcakes – which I’m craving, if you can’t tell – but not about the NFL. It’s a weird game, and that’s why it’s so amazing.

So kick back, relax and enjoy the NFL thoughts that are about to flow onto the screen. I make these picks as I go, game by game. As you read, I write. With that in mind, let’s get to work… I have a deadline to hit.

Houston Texans at New England Patriots, 8:25 p.m. ET on Thursday, CBS/NFL/Twitter

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Jacoby Brissett is starting in an NFL game in week three of his rookie season. This is not a drill.

With the loss of Jimmy Garoppolo for at-least this week, one would imagine the game-plan for New England will center around the rushing attack and the potentially punishing style of LeGarrette Blount. We know the New England staff with scheme up a favorable strategy on defense, even against a very legitimate Texans offense – that aspect of the game won’t change. It should be a run-heavy, vanilla approach at home in hopes that the defense and/or special teams can step up and create points when needed. It’s a short week with a QB who has seen an NFL regular season gridiron zero times. This isn’t a tough preview on the Patriots side.

The angle of Houston in this game is particularly interesting. Brock Osweiler has been a much-needed boost under center for the Texans, enjoying the likes of Will Fuller and DeAndre Hopkins as his catch partners. They match up well against the New England defense and should have plenty of opportunities to air the football out on Thursday night. If there is one, the potential issue lies within the overall situation.

It’s a short week. On the road. Against a team they should, on paper, be able to beat. Matching up against a Bill Belichick-led team, this game enters a potential danger zone. Sure, Houston should win. But as we mentioned at the onset of this piece – we’re dealing with the wild and wacky NFL.

Belichick works his magic yet again, Patriots eek out 23-21 win over Houston.

Arizona Cardinals at Buffalo Bills, 1:00 p.m. ET on Sunday, FOX

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Two teams, two completely different storylines. One squad is headed for another potential deep playoff run, while the other’s head coach can’t even sit on his scolding-hot seat.

You have to feel for Buffalo, a team that got a pretty raw deal to start the year. Having to head on the road to face the Ravens in week one, followed by a short-week divisional game just four days later is a brutal task. In reality, it shouldn’t be a shock that they’ve started 0-2. What is surprising is the way they’ve played, a disappointing early-season performance on both sides of the ball to say the least. If the offense doesn’t improve their rhythm, they’re not going to win very many games this season. Unfortunately for Rex Ryan’s squad, the early schedule doesn’t get any easier on Sunday.

The Cardinals are a good football team – the understatement of this column. Last week, expectations came to reality with a massive 40-7 beat down of Jameis Winston and his Tampa Bay squad. Most impressive, Bruce Arians and the staff entered and finished the game with dominance in the preparation department, seemingly knowing every move the Bucs would make before they made it. He’s one of the best coaches in the league for a reason; don’t be surprised to see another similar performance on the road Sunday.

Cardinals win by double-digits again, top Bills, 30-17.

Oakland Raiders at Tennessee Titans, 1:00 p.m. ET on Sunday, CBS

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Ah, the battle of young quarterbacks in a game that might end up having big playoff implications down the stretch (these AFC games are kind of a big deal).

On Oakland’s side, we have a very good team – on paper – that seemed to play down to their opponent against the Falcons last week. Sure, Atlanta has talent, but they’re not a better football team than the Raiders… or, so we thought. Oakland has no other choice but to get back on track this week against Tennessee, particularly on defense. The secondary has much more favorable matchups against the Titans, a team that boasts rookie fifth-round pick Tajae Sharpe as the featured option for Marcus Mariota. The Raiders match up well, but the execution can’t falter one bit.

Tennessee’s focus should be on continuing to develop a rushing attack that can sustain lengthy drives to give their defense a rest. DeMarco Murray and Derrick Henry is no joke of a one-two punch. The O-Line might be young, but the time is now to step up and assist Marcus Mariota in development. It’s a marathon, not a sprint, for the current Titans squad. In the early stages of the race, it’d be wise to continue growing a legitimate run game.

Raiders get back on track, capture 23-17 win against Titans.

Washington Redskins at New York Giants, 1:00 p.m. ET on Sunday, FOX

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The Giants might be 2-0, but it certainly hasn’t been an effort completely void of question marks.

While Washington appears to be falling off the tracks a bit to start the year, the Giants enter this one with a single goal – score points early. Last week’s 16-point effort against New Orleans was nearly disastrous, especially considering their lone touchdown came on a blocked field goal. That’s right – four quarters against the Saints, not a single touchdown. Now, that’s not to say they didn’t move the ball … Eli Manning threw for nearly 400 yards and drives were sustained, particularly late in the game. But failing to convert for six, all game long, against an incredibly depleted Saints defense? That won’t fly moving forward, especially against Washington.

The Redskins enter with a slightly different issue: figuring out how to stop opposing offenses. They’ve allowed 65 points in their first two games against the Steelers and Cowboys, a number that indeed reflects the entirety of their performance thus far. It’s difficult to spotlight their identity just yet, perhaps a sign that they might not have one emerge at all in 2016. It’s a mixed bag over in Washington, not exactly a great sign for the season ahead.

At home, this one shouldn’t be a terrible task for Eli Manning and co. But don’t count out Washington’s rushing attack to potentially keep this relatively close. For what it’s worth, I still think Matt Jones will emerge as a top back by the end of the year.

Giants fight to 3-0 record, beat Washington, 22-20.

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Cleveland Browns at Miami Dolphins, 1:00 p.m. ET on Sunday, CBS

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Here’s another one of those “unique” games for Sunday viewing (or, lack thereof). It’s not necessarily a bad game, but it doesn’t quite… well, pop. We’ll go with that.

The storyline in Cleveland is obvious, and one that might warrant semi-viewing on Sunday afternoon – Cody Kessler’s first NFL start. With McCown dealing with the roughed-up shoulder, it’ll be up to Kessler, on the road, to help the Browns avoid falling to 0-3 to start their season. Welcome to the NFL, rook. In all seriousness, expect a heavy dose of Isaiah Crowell and his fellow backs in the Cleveland backfield. It’s hard to imagine Hue Jackson, a coach who favors the run to begin with, throwing Kessler to the wolves and putting the weight of this game solely on his shoulders. Ultimately, this development just makes an ugly – or, unique – game, even uglier.

Miami’s strategy to avoid an 0-3 start has to involve simplicity. They can’t afford to take risks or have lapses in judgement in a crucial home game against Cleveland. It’s a big week in the Dolphins HQ, one that, with a loss, could end in a few heated meetings to say the least. It’s not cause for panic time, but the game plan must be effective. Even without Arian Foster, they have to find a way to win.

If holes exist and Cleveland finds a way to pull this one out? Monday morning won’t be a pretty sight in southern Florida.

Dolphins emerge victorious against Cleveland, win, 17-14.

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Baltimore Ravens at Jacksonville Jaguars, 1:00 p.m. ET on Sunday, CBS

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What happened to Jacksonville? In a year in which the mighty Gus Bradley group was supposed to take the next step forward into the playoffs, they’re in very real danger of starting 0-3 to begin their “breakout campaign”. Panic button – pressed.

It’s unfair to pin the blame on Blake Bortles, especially when you consider the performance of Bradley’s defensive unit against San Diego last week. They crumbled and played some very concerning football in comparison to the offseason buildup that took place around Jacksonville before the season. Improvement and optimism were themes; now, “merely hanging on for dear life” seems to have replaced the glass-half-full thoughts. If they want to win on Sunday, it’s up to the secondary to stifle a much-improved Baltimore passing attack.

Joe Flacco is Joe Flacco – we know his ceiling, we certainly are aware of his floor. As his performance goes, the rest of this matchup should follow. If Marc Trestman dials up schemes to expose the Jacksonville secondary, akin to San Diego’s game plan last week, this has the potential to get very ugly. Mike Wallace leads a band of concerning, sturdy Ravens playmakers that consist of newly-healthy additions in Dennis Pitta and Steve Smith Sr. Throw in Breshad Perriman’s deep threat and Trestman owns a bit more than the Jaguars might be able to handle.

The Jaguars aren’t a bad football team, and it wouldn’t have been a shock to see them start the season 1-2. But after the debacle in San Diego, one has to wonder if these Jags are truly built to win now, if ever, with the current makeup of the roster.

Ravens fire on all cylinders, Flacco’s big day leads to defeat of Jaguars, 28-21.

Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers, 1:00 p.m. ET on Sunday, FOX

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How does one figure out what Green Bay is as a football team? We know they’re good, but just how good? It’s one of life’s great unknowns.

On paper, you’d imagine the Packers, at-least on offense, should be one of the most potent attacks in the league. All was set for a perfect Sunday night victory against Minnesota, until Sam Bradford walked into his new home in Minnesota and simply out-played Aaron Rodgers. It wasn’t the fault of the Packers defense, nor any other reality – Rodgers, the freaky QB that we’ve come to know, got outplayed. And just like that, panic mode sets in within the national media headlines. So, where do we go now?

That answer is simple: nowhere. The Packers are a very good football team. Luckily, the next test features Detroit in the confines of Lambeau Field, a matchup that by all means is a slam dunk. Ameer Abdullah is out for the season, the Lions defense is exploitable, and Mike McCarthy and his staff know the Lions inside and out. Opposed to labeling this one a trap game, which would admittedly be fair, this one should be thought of as more of a tune-up for the guys in green and gold.

Sure, it’s dangerous to already give them the win days in advance, but is there any other way this one could go? Despite the shaky threat of Stafford gaining momentum in the passing game, there isn’t much of a conversation here.

Green Bay should score, take advantage of a weaker Detroit defense and play stout enough football to improve to 2-1 on the year. If that doesn’t happen … well, then we can talk about spiraling into super crazy panic mode in Wisconsin.

There’s always the possibility of Stafford putting up that 400-yard, air-it-out-and-pray-for-a-catch type of game, but taking Detroit for that purpose alone wouldn’t be wise.

Packers find rhythm on offense, defeat Lions, 27-17.

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Denver Broncos at Cincinnati Bengals, 1:00 p.m. ET on Sunday, CBS

For many reasons, it’s hard to not look at this one as the game of the week. Two teams, two very legitimate AFC contenders.

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Last week might’ve been a tough loss for Cincinnati to swallow, but it shouldn’t affect how they’re viewed across the NFL landscape. The game against Pittsburgh was a classic AFC North fight where one team was going to have to lose. The Bengals are a legitimate playoff contender, and that didn’t change on Sunday. What’s slightly concerning, still, is the offense’s ability to be as lethal as they’ve been in the regular season in years past. The Steelers were able to effectively shut down A.J. Green, seeming to throw off the entirety of the rhythm on offense. Jeremy Hill hasn’t gotten opportunities to be a factor out of the backfield, while the loss of Marvin Jones seriously depletes the arsenal for Andy Dalton. In this one, you have to be concerned with the matchup against a stout Denver defense.

The Broncos have every opportunity to win here and surprise some folks, as they’re still viewed as an underwhelming threat in the AFC. Have we forgotten how good this roster is? Trevor Siemien isn’t a step down from Peyton Manning, Gary Kubiak is a phenomenal head coach, and the defensive unit remains among the top squads in the league. Yet still, Denver is doubted.

Don’t be fooled by this Broncos team – they haven’t taken a massive hit as a team since February. Perfection might not be the word you’d use, but things are starting to come together. A win against the Bengals on the road would prove that Siemien is poised to lead Denver to another deep playoff push.

Broncos travel to Cincy and knock off Bengals, 26-23.

Minnesota Vikings at Carolina Panthers, 1:00 p.m. ET on Sunday, FOX

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If Sam Bradford’s week two performance was a sign of things to come, it might be wise to keep Minnesota in contention for a postseason spot.

The recent loss of Adrian Peterson is a bummer, no doubt about it. But Bradford’s replacement of Teddy Bridgewater is far from a downgrade. It’s certainly not an improvement – Bridgewater knows the system better than anyone – but you’d be hard-pressed to find anyone who agrees with the notion that Bradford’s role as QB will be the reason the Vikings don’t make the postseason. In fact, his presence could be the reason Minnesota finds their way to the playoffs, as odd as that’d be. If the defense performs the way they have during the first two games of the season, don’t write off Mike Zimmer’s squad to potentially start 3-0 here.

Of course, the opponent is Carolina, who gets to stay home this weekend and welcome the Vikings to Charlotte. They sharpened up the offense last weekend against San Francisco, nearly putting up a 50-burger to run the 49ers out of town. Cam Newton is still Cam Newton; plenty to work with on offense, there’s little doubt about what they can achieve yet again this year.

However, Mike Zimmer knows how to coach a football team. Far and away the most underrated head coach in the league (that’s a column for another day as well), Zimmer knows how to prepare. Don’t let the loss of Bridgewater and Peterson fool you. The Vikings are a well-built, rugged football team. If anyone can contend with Carolina, it’s Minnesota. There’s no Josh Norman in town anymore… let’s go Upset of the Week mode here.

Bradford fires trio of touchdowns in Vikings upset win over Carolina, 31-29.

Los Angeles Rams at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 4:05 p.m. ET on Sunday, FOX

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How does one possibly break this game down? Here we have two squads who have respectively put together two completely contrasting games together to start the year. Take a coin, flip it, and do it 10 more times before you figure out who will win this game.

By all means, at 12:55 last Sunday, I would’ve looked at this game on the schedule, a week out, and made the Bucs my lock of the week and it wouldn’t have been close. But then, week two happens. Tampa Bay enters Arizona, Jameis Winston completes just 27 of his 52 passes, Carson Palmer throws for over 300 yards and three touchdowns and Arizona puts up 40 points. Meanwhile, the Rams – a team that was beaten 28-0 by San Francisco the week before, mind you – host Seattle and hold the Hawks to three points! What happened to predictability?

With that said, this game is anything but cut and dried. Tampa might be favored by five points, but there’s no guarantee that they’ll score more than 10 or 13, especially with the loss of Doug Martin looming large. It’s a big week for Dirk Koetter, a coach who must prove that this team, which supposedly improved over the offseason, can handle subpar opponents in a critical early-season home atmosphere. They’re the better team, but who knows which version of the squad will show up to play on Sunday?

Buccaneers scoot by LA, pick up second win of the season, 19-17.

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San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks, 4:05 p.m. ET on Sunday

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Can you imagine being Pete Carroll right now? Heading into a home game, against a divisional opponent, coming off of a game in which his team scored three points? That guy must be going through three packs of gum an hour (which, in reality, probably isn’t much more than his usual consumption).

Seattle’s approach to Sunday’s game doesn’t have to be a complicated one. It won’t take an intricate recipe on either side of the ball to pull off this win. Ultimately, a vanilla game plan with proper execution should be enough to get the job done, especially against a 49ers squad that isn’t expected to make much noise after their impressive season opener against LA. Darrell Bevell has no other choice but to get back to the basics and find a way to push the ball down the field, by whatever means necessary. It isn’t that this team isn’t stacked with playmakers, rather schematically, they’ve struggled to find ground early. The defense will do their part; it’s up to Bevell’s unit to find a way.

The 49ers aren’t the most talented squad in the NFL, but they have a chance to keep this game competitive. Even deep into the fourth quarter last Sunday, they had a somewhat realistic shot to knock off Carolina on the road. Watch out for Torrey Smith and the presence of the deep ball … if San Francisco wants an opportunity to capture a victory here, their playcalling must be anything but vanilla.

Seahawks find a way to win late, 20-16.

New York Jets at Kansas City Chiefs, 4:25 p.m. ET on Sunday, CBS

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Here’s another coin flip game, this time between two squads with very real playoff chances.

There’s a lot to like about Todd Bowles and the Jets. For the second year in a row, they look like they’ll be a down-to-the-wire competitor for an AFC Wild Card spot, unfortunately matched up in a division with a New England team that just won’t die. After a one-point loss to Cincinnati followed by a short-week win against Buffalo, NYJ possesses a real threat in this one. If Matt Forte and the running game can be effective early, it’d hardly be a shock to see the Jets emerge victorious.

The Chiefs bring a wild card (no pun intended) to the table this week. Ultimately, it’s easy to be unsure about the legitimacy of their postseason chances after watching the first two weeks of the season. San Diego should’ve knocked them off to start the year in an ugly first-half performance by Andy Reid’s group, while the Texans continued to expose weaknesses in the Chiefs offense last weekend. Who’s to blame for the slow offensive start? You could probably spread it around to quite a few factors.

Kansas City is at home in what some might call an early must-win. But when you compare the Jets’ start with KC’s, it’s hard to pick against a very talented Jets squad.

Jets emerge victorious on the road, beat Kansas City, 24-19.

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San Diego Chargers at Indianapolis Colts, 4:25 p.m. ET on Sunday, CBS

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This seems like a no-brainer, right? The Chargers, sans Keenan Allen and Danny Woodhead with a shaky defense, battling against a desperate 0-2 Colts team that is fighting desperately to stay relevant in the AFC. How could this one go any differently?

That’s the question I asked, and still am asking, when picking the Colts to run away with this win. It all makes sense – a desperate team wins a home game to keep their hopes of a 2016 rebirth alive, while the road team with limited upside struggles after a cross-country trip. The storyline is sound! Indianapolis is far from perfect, but their ability to score points remains. The attack may not be as lethal without Donte Moncrief, but weapons are still there to put up very good numbers against this San Diego defense. By all means, this is Indy’s game to lose.

But the Chargers have life, albeit one on support. Melvin Gordon should have opportunities. The receivers on the edge should have chances to cash in on deep balls against the Indianapolis secondary. Philip Rivers, if given the time, can sling it. Those factors combined, also taking into account the absolute ridiculousness of the NFL, make me nervous about this pick.

When it seems too good to be true, it usually is in the National Football League. Sure, the Colts should win. But are they really good enough to get it done?

Chargers surprise Colts, defeat Indianapolis without stars on offense, 24-23.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Philadelphia Eagles, 4:25 p.m. ET on Sunday, CBS

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Ah, the first true test. Philly fans can be stoked until kickoff, but these three hours on Sunday should provide an excellent look at the legitimacy of their team’s ability to get the job done against postseason contenders.

Philadelphia as a whole is no joke. They’ve clearly improved and grown throughout the offseason, seemingly a testament to the job Doug Pederson is going at the helm. The young threats that Wentz will be able to develop with are incredibly talented, while the running game is a work in progress that should improve with time. Offensively, it seems they’re at-least settled into have a productive season for Wentz’s rookie campaign. On defense, the test becomes very real against Pittsburgh.

It’s unnecessary to run through the sheer brilliance of the Steelers offense, especially after a mighty impressive first two weeks. It’s not an overreaction – this offense, mid-season, might be as good as any we’ve seen in the Ben Roethlisberger era. They’re scary good, and Philadelphia presents a matchup that shouldn’t be difficult to figure out. There’s firepower everywhere in Todd Haley’s offense. Whether through the air or via the rushing attack, yards are going to be put up on Sunday. The key here is cashing in on opportunities when they arise.

The gaudy numbers will be available for compiling – on third downs in Philadelphia territory, putting up six and not settling for the field goal must be the objective. Heck, it’s safe to say Mike Tomlin isn’t afraid to sign off on keeping that offense on the field on fourth downs. Don’t expect anything less on Sunday.

Steelers knock off Eagles in big win, 29-23.

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Chicago Bears at Dallas Cowboys, 8:30 p.m. ET on Sunday, NBC

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With Jay Cutler seeming set to sit this one out with a thumb injury, it appear Brian Hoyer gets the nod for Chicago, heading into a night game at Jerry’s World in Dallas.

The 2016 season hasn’t gotten off to a very kind start for the Bears, and it doesn’t appear that this matchup provides any opportunity to get the first notch in the win column. Struggles have taken place all across the board through the first two games, but the most concerning missteps have come on offense, where Chicago ranks – albeit with a small sample size – second-last in the National Football League. The Dallas defense has been far from perfect, but with Brian Hoyer, given just one week to prep with a shaky starting group, the edge has to go to the Cowboys.

This seems to be a slam dunk for Jason Garrett’s squad, which just has to execute the game plan and not make mistakes when it counts. Continue to improve the rushing attack, hold onto the football and on defense, don’t give up the big play over the top – if that happens, it’ll be an enjoyable night in Dallas, TX.

Cowboys take home win in Sunday night football, defeat Bears, 24-15.

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Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints, 8:30 p.m. ET on Monday, ESPN

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Here’s a star-studded primetime game that provides a heck of a matchup. Not to mention that this one is pure fantasy football gold.

On the Atlanta side, you can feel a sliver of momentum building after knocking off a Oakland team that still has very real postseason chances. The Falcons weren’t perfect, but boy, did that offense shine. Devonta Freeman was efficient, Matty Ice threw for 396 yards, Julio Jones did Julio Jones things and the offensive line did their job when it counted the most. What we saw was a ceiling being reached. And oddly enough, this week’s outing could end up surpassing that performance entirely.

The depleted New Orleans secondary should allow the Atlanta game plan to spread out and do their thing. However, don’t discount the Saints and their ability to carve out a nice slice of yardage as well. Young QBs in Jameis Winston and Derek Carr have had their way against the Falcons secondary already this season. What’s stopping Drew Brees, Brandin Cooks, Willie Snead and the rest of the gang in New Orleans from doing the same?

Get ready for points aplenty here. If either secondary surprises and performs well, they’ll likely be taking home the ‘W’.

Saints get Monday night win at home against Falcons, win 35-28.

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